Eels Blogs

Analysis (II): Cause for encouragement

Posted by Phil Sim on September 8, 2009 at 2:10am
So yesterday we arrived at the conclusion that the weekend's loss against the Dragons was the loss we had to have. It highlighted the required effort we are going to need to compete in the NRL finals and will enable Daniel Anderson to have his side full-prepared and ready for this week's onslaught against the Dragons.The question is can we reverse 37 points? That's a thumping and ordinarily would be an indication of a team well and truly dominated.CompletionWhen you examine any Rugby League match the first thing you look at are errors, completion rates and completion efficiency. And quite simply, Parramatta was so far below where we've been the previous 2 months, it just wasn't funny.We completed just 19 of 37 sets, a fraction over half after coming up with 19 errors. That's a possession efficiency of 70 per cent, or put another way we could have had almost a third more ball than we did. The Dragons on the other hand have come up with a possession efficiency of an incredible 93 per cent on the back of a 90 per cent completion rate. Their first half efficiency was 97 per cent, meaning they did without just 4 unused plays with just 2 errors and 1 uncompleted set.In other words, the Dragons could not have played any better. Meanwhile, we compounded our problems by being slaughtered in the penalty count 6 to 1 in the first half, with a lot of uncharacteristic infringements in the play the ball. The result of all this was the Dragons had 55 per cent of the ball overall and 57 per cent in the first half where the real damage was done.Over our winning streak, we probably averaged 80 per cent completion rates. So we were well down. It's worth noting that a number of the big errors that ended up costing us points were made by our stand-in players who were probably a little over-awed by the occasion.We'll be a lot better in this regard this week, the Dragons will struggle to be that good again.The forward battleI watched the match very closely tonight on video and we didn't lose the forward battle as badly as I had first thought, nor as poorly as the overall stats would suggest. If you drill down into hitups where forward battles are generally won and loss the Dragons made 555m from 75 runs - that's an average of 7.5 metres per hitup. Our boys made 446m from 62 hitups at an average of 7.2 metres per hitup. Given the amount of tackling the Eels were forced to do, that's a pretty respectable figure. We also weren't helped by some very ordinary starts to our sets - an area that will be infinitely better once Eric Grothe gets back in the side. Parramatta will welcome Nathan Hindmarsh back into the side, as well, which will further help their cause this week.So yes, the Dragons finished on top but given the circumstances we did well to to do as good as we did and with a bit more ball, I'm confident we'll hold our own once we lift our intensity back to the levels produced in previous matches. Having studied the video, I don't think the Dragons forwards were any more aggressive or effective than the Tigers, for example.It should also be noted that our forward play was particularly bland, in terms of the use of decoys or passing before the line. I think that will be an area of the game that Anderson will ratchet up a lot this week. I'm sure the attention that Moimoi was given last Friday will give Anderson plenty of ideas as to how he can exploit that this week.The impact of second-phase playIt was pretty clear that Daniel Anderson told his troops not to pass in the early stages of the match. The opening stanza we didn't try an offload until the 15 minute mark and by then we were already three tries down. However, once we did start to offload the match shifted complexion pretty quickly and suddenly we began to make inroads into the Dragons defence.In the second half, our number of fast play-the-balls increased from 2 to 10, while the Dragons slow play-the-balls jumped from just 6 to 22. What this shows is we were able to turn around the Dragons control of the ruck that they had in the first half, to dominate that facet of the game off the back of our second-phase play in the second half.The Dragons showed they are definitely susceptible to this facet of our game. The ineffective tackle count amongst their forwards was high and we were able to get a massive 15 offloads in the second half. I think you'll see the offloads come into play a lot earlier this week and I think the proof is their in the statistics that if you move the big Dragons forwards about, you can slow their game right down.Of course, we got a bit haphazard particularly in the second half but that was a result of us trying to chase points. Anderson will have us using this strength of our game in a much more controlled fashion this week.Our defenceHalf of the Dragons tries came from the one backline movement designed to put Brett Morris into space. It is a play that the Dragons have used time and time again this year, witness the fact that Morris has ended the year as the game's top try scorer. On Friday, their job was made far too easy by the injection of Jonothan Wright into the side as the youngster still has a lot to learn about defending at the top level. Previously Joel Reddy and Eric Grothe have done a lot to plug up what has always been a problem for Parramatta and Grothe's return will help that immeasurably.This week, Wright simply didn't react to Reddy on his inside. When Reddy came forward, Wright got stuck in no-mans land, neither coming forward or staying back. Our inside men also need to work harder as our slide defence never got across to cover the overlap. Jeff Robson, who has been brilliant in defence had a howler in defence. On top of the missed tackle that led to Ben Creagh's first try his cover defence was ineffective and he finished up with a very uncharacteristic eight missed tackles. Given defence has been the hallmark of his game, one would hope that would be the last time we see that kind of performance from Robson.Feleti Mateo, however, continues to represent a weakness in the Eels defensive line. His read on the play where Dan Hunt went over with seemingly nothing doing was awful. The Eel's defensive coaches need to work on Mateo's goal-line defence because Bennett won't have missed it.The good news is that despite the scoreline the Dragons hardly cut us up. Aside from that one move, there were those two soft second-half tries as we tired and the uncharacteristic Robson miss. Outside of the tries the Dragons made only two line breaks - one was a bad miss on Darius Boyd by J Wright, while the Nightingale break up the middle was a fine piece of place but was pretty much an isolated incident.Defence has been the hallmark of our game. However, what was shown is that your defence is only as strong as your weakest player. The Eels will be back at full-strength this week and they will have had plenty of time to address that right-side issue. Joel Reddy is a great learner, too, and he'll handle himself better next week.Attack kept in the kit bagParramatta threw absolutely nothing at the Dragons, in terms of structured play. I have little doubt that Daniel Anderson put all his tricks in the kit bag for the week and the players were on a mission to score points without revealing too much of themselves to the Dragons. We did test the Dragons right-side defence where Soward defends and Kris Inu caused some trouble there but we certainly weren't the same fluid attacking side we'd been in the lead-up to the match. I can't remember a single play that was set up for a Jarryd Hayne run - peculiar because the Dragons are vulnerable in areas where Hayne likes to lurk. This week I think you'll see a lot more turning the ball inside for Hayne up the middle as well as plays set up to isolate him on Soward.Did the Dragons hold as much back? I don't think so. It was a performance that was very reflective of their entire season. They made no mistakes and executed their pet moves with perfection. As I mentioned in the preview before last week's match, they can't match us for skill (Ben Creagh aside). And if they are holding plays back I don't think you'll see them bring it out prematurely for our match, given its not sudden death for them?Can we turn it around?Yes. Without question it is going to be a tough match. We will have to play extremely well to beat the Dragons. However, I also watched a lot of the Canberra vs Dragons match today and if you hang in against the Saints and fight fire-with-fire, eventually a side with a high skill level is capable of breaching their defence enough times to win. We'll need to get our completion rates back up to 80 per cent. We'll need to lift a notch in intensity and bring that forward battle back to par. We'll have to fix those issues on the right-side and give Ben Creagh the kind of attention a player of his skill deserves. And all the while, we need to play positive, attacking football by promoting the offload whenever it is on.We've done that for most of the games prior to last week, so there is no reason to suggest we can't do it. If we do, I think we can win. I can't see how the Dragons won't be that little complacent or cocky, where we'll be back in the situation of having to fight for our lives. This match is ripe for a complete turn-around.
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  • Parra Dude September 8, 2009 at 10:00am
    I agree... Great analysis... Hardened defense, better completions, less errors & more offloads... It seems so simply!... Thats exactly what showed for 7 rounds before last week!... More than capable of a turnaround... Go the Eels!!!
  • JJM September 8, 2009 at 10:05am
    Our defence is the key . We hold them out, we get confidence and we earn the right to throw the ball around and have a crack at their defenders. With our attack in full force, we can make a serious tilt, quieten the crowd and win the game
  • GOlling September 8, 2009 at 10:26am
    Dont forget also that the Dragons have less to play for. Last week they had to stop a 3 game losing streak and had the Minor Premiership on the line. Now they are focused on October 4th. We have it all on the line. Eels also have experience in Hindy Burt and Cayless of winning a 1 v 8 final v the Roosters many years ago.

    It will be tough but we are not without hope. Dont underestimate the frustration that this will cause in the pre season. ie remember last year when we lost so many games early and it killed our season !!! It will be a motivator for a flying start to next year
  • ParraNutta September 8, 2009 at 12:08pm
    Great analysis, love your work!

    I think the Hinmarsh factor is the key.

    This man is the heart and soul of our team. No one gives more courage, intensity and desperation on the field in the entire comp. Hindy is what finals footy is all about, without him we wouldnt stand a chance.
    Our stats and winning percentages are always poor when he is not there leading by example.

    If any team is going to beat them it is us.

    Have faith in Ando and the boys everyone, they got us this far to achieve an impossible finals birth.

    One thing is for sure Ando will make sure we will be ready for the challenge.
  • Jacko September 8, 2009 at 12:39pm
    Hindmarsh is the man we need on that field ,I think the Eel's can belt the dragons and by god i'm living in hope go hard boys!
    • ILUVHINDY > Jacko September 8, 2009 at 8:04pm
      Absolutely! you are so right about Hindy. We really missed him in that game. I live in hope also.
  • Steve-o September 8, 2009 at 12:44pm
    That was a great read.

    Im 110% sure of a turn around this week.

    Higher completions, less errors, full roster, points to a much different game!
  • PM September 8, 2009 at 1:35pm
    Love your positivism 1eyedeel.

    Why we lost ?

    The Dragons beat us tactically & mentally. Our D was down on intensity. We made too many mistakes, so really we had no chance, because Saint's aimed up. Thank God for Mortimer.

    Saints kicked to Burt, away from Hayne nullifying him. Soward, Morris & co targetted our new combo Wright-Reddy scoring easily with set pieces, a few dummies & Morris pace. Saints built up pressure with strong runs. Also, we didn't use our opportunities with Burt for e.g. dropping a sitter over the line.

    If we want to beat them this week ?

    We need more intensity in defence & less mistakes as a starting point - then we're in with a chance. If we reduce their score with tough desperate D, hold the ball, we can offload and play to our strength. Skill.
  • Jackso September 8, 2009 at 3:52pm
    Great analysis again! I hope you are being paid for writing this, because you should be!

    Agree with most of what you've written.

    One other thing i noted on the defensive side was how slow Jeff Robson was to cover his winger when when Morris made a couple of those breaks. Kris Keating and Dan Mortimer would have been quick enough to cover.

    The other things I noted on reasons why we lost:

    - With Hindmarsh and Grothe out, their replacements didn't step up. You touched on this.
    - 50/50 calls went Dragons way. Morris first try, pretty much every replay suggested he was held up, but the ref awarded the try anyway. Dan Hunt try - momentum stopped, yet he was still allowed to plant the ball over the line. The same thing happened with Jaryd Hickey for the Dogs and they didn't award the try. - Can't say for certain that this wont be the case on Sunday.
  • David September 8, 2009 at 5:29pm
    Defence will definitely be the key. If our defence is as good as it was against the dogs, we'll win. If we smash them with our forwards, we win. Jarryd Hayne given more ball and room to roam = we win.
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