R10 Game Day Blog: Can we keep the Fins at Bay?

13544266668?profile=RESIZE_710x

The last-placed Eels host the dangerous Redcliffe Dolphins tonight at Commbank. They've only faced each other twice in high-scoring encounters producing 128 points. The Dolphins are 14th and will be desperate to make a statement despite an atrocious record in Sydney losing six of their last seven.

 

Teams

Details: Thursday 8 May, 7.50pm AEST
Parramatta Eels vs Dolphins, CommBank Stadium
Referees: Wyatt Raymond, Kasey Badger (touch judge), Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski (touch judge), Chris Butler (bunker)
Ground Conditions: good
Weather: around 13-15˚C, 2kmh winds, partly cloudy, 77% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $1.78, Dolphins $2.08

 

Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood 
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Jordan Samrani 17. Matt Doorey
Extended:  19. Joash Papali’i 
Cut: 18. Ryan Matterson 20. Dean Hawkins 21. Toni Mataele  22. Brendan Hands
Head Coach: Jason Ryles

 

Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Francis Molo 9. Kurt Donoghoe 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 14. Ray Stone  13. Tom Gilbert
Bench: 12. Connelly Lemuelu 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Josh Kerr 18. Harrison Graham 
Extended: 17. Sean O’Sullivan 
Cut:  19. Oryn Keeley 20. Max Feagai 21. Kenny Bromwich 22. Junior Tupou
Head Coach: Kristian Woolf

  

Injuries

Eels: Zac Lomax (R11), Sam Tuivaiti (R20, ight ankle Syndesmosis), Kelma Tuilagi (R12), Joey Lussick (R11),  Dan Keir (R12-14), Arthur Miller-Stephen (Season), Ethyn Martin (TBC), Apa Twidle (TBC). Dolphins: Jeremy Marshall King (TBC), Thomas Flegler (TBC), Trai Fuller (indefinite), Max Plath (R13), Daniel Saifiti (R11), Kurt Don

 

Stat Attack

  • It's one a piece for the Eels versus the Dolphins (Eels won 48-20 in 2023 but lost 44-16 in 2024) with two games producing 128 points in total.
  • The Eels have scored 61 points in their last two games at CommBank Stadium.
  • The Dolphins have won only one of seven games played in Sydney.

Recap: Last Week

The Eels were brave against the Sharks going down 28-18. Despite a mountain of possession against the Eels (56%-44%), the Sharks being camped in the Eels red-zone in the second-half (24-4 tackles in 20m zone), and some dodgy officiating, the Eels came back from 22-6 down in the 60th minute to stay in the fight.

13544266694?profile=RESIZE_710x

Eels winger Josh Addo-Carr (above) has scored five tries in his last three games. Will Penisini has also scored three tries in two games against the Dolphins.

The Eels have shown improvement in their resilience, defence and linespeed. In round six they had a bottom four average for their linespeed (pre-contact metres) - now, they're sixth.

Rank Team

Pre-contact metres

R6  rank
1 Broncos (5th) 6.63  13th
2 Cowboys (9th) 6.32  2nd
3 Dogs (1st) 6.21  14th
4 Dolphins (14th) 6.17  11th
5 Dragons (10th) 6.17  3rd
6 Eels (17th) 6.13  12th
7 Knights (12th) 6.07  4th
8 Manly (7th) 6.05  7th
9 Panthers (15th) 6.02  6th
10 Raiders (2nd) 6.01  17th
11 Roosters (11th) 5.95  5th
12 Sharks (6th) 5.91  8th
13 Souths (13th) 5.89  15th
14 Storm (4th) 5.85  2nd
15 Tigers (8th) 5.77  10th
16 Titans (16th) 5.72  16th
17 Warriors (3rd) 5.62  9th

R10  Linespeed: Pre-Contact Metres 

The problem for the Eels has been their lapses. The Eels have only had more possession in two games (R5 Dragons, R7 Tigers) - winning both games. They have only made more run and less errors than the opposition in three games (R3 Dogs, R5 Dragons, R7 Tigers) - winning two of those. They're a young, rebuilding team and have used 29 players (the highest amount of any team).

Should those lapses continue, the Eels could be in strife.

The Dolphins are a team capable of punishing defences as Storm found out in round seven a few weeks ago. The Storm were ahead 16-2 in the 28th, but the Dolphins run away with the game 42-22. Remember round seven last year at TIO?  The Eels led 10-4 at the 49th and looked to be in the game. But over the next 30 minutes the Dolphins pulverized us 40-6 to run home with the game 44-16. It was typical of the Eels second-half last year. 

13544273866?profile=RESIZE_710xWith speedsters Hamiso-tabuai-fidow (above) who has scored seven tries in his last five games, Jake Averillo, Herbie Farnsworth and rising half Isaiya Katoa, the former Panther wunderkid - there is a clear and present danger.

Last week, the Dolphins went down to the Roosters 36-26 to record two-straight losses. But they fought back from 32-8 down in the 66th minute. A reminder of their ability to scored quickly. 

The problem for the Dolphins this year has been inconsistency: LLLLWWWLL. They seem to get into losing and winning habits and fall in and out of them. 

13544463499?profile=RESIZE_710x

Some dubious officiating against us has been another consistent theme - especially over the last month. Under Wyatt Raymond (above) the Dolphins have won two from two, while the Eels have won one from five - conceding 42 points per game on average. Not a sight for sore eyes. Let's hope history doesn't keep repeating itself and we get a fair rub of the green.

13544266678?profile=RESIZE_710x

The Eels were full of spirit at training this week (image supplied by the Eels' club)

 

Despite the Eels sitting last, there have been green shoots in both their attack and defence under the Ryles' rebuild. But tonight the Eels will need enough go-forward, control the ball, limit their errors, control where the Dolphins get the ball with good kick chases to reduce the stress on their defence - or else we've seen what the Fins can do.  

 

 

 

  For (Attack) ppg Against (Defence) ppg
1 Storm (4th) 31.0  Dogs (1st) 14.8 
2 Raiders (2nd) 28.7  Sharks (6th) 18.4 
3 Broncos (5th) 27.6  Knights (12th) 18.8 
4 Dogs (1st) 26.5  Storm (4th) 21.5 
5 Manly (7th) 26.3  Broncos (5th) 21.6 
6 Dolphins (14th) 24.2  Tigers (8th) 21.6 
7 Cowboys (9th) 24.0  Warriors (3rd) 21.8 
8 Sharks (6th) 23.9  Manly (7th) 21.8 
9 Tigers (8th) 23.8  Raiders (2nd) 22.0 
10 Panthers (15th) 23.8  Souths (13th) 23.0 
11 Dragons (10th) 23.0  Dolphins (14th) 23.6 
12 Roosters (11th) 22.7  Panthers (15th) 24.0 
13 Warriors (3rd) 21.8  Dragons (10th) 24.8 
14 Titans (16th) 20.3  Cowboys (9th) 25.8 
15 Eels (17th) 16.9  Roosters (11th) 27.3 
16 Souths (13th) 15.2  Titans (16th) 31.3 
17 Knights (12th) 12.8  Eels (17th) 31.5 

Round 10 For and Against Stats for the season

 

You need to be a member of 1Eyed Eel to add comments!

Join 1Eyed Eel

Votes: 0
Email me when people reply –

Replies

  • As a club we've deliberately decimated our middles. The cupboard is bare. Said this early in the season and got yelled at but I'll keep saying it. Experience matters!!!  
    You can't put 50 games into people overnight, it takes years. This is not a knock on the players or their efforts at all. Not one bit. So yeh we've set a new culture etc. Cool stuff. We're so far from a premiership it doesn't bare mentioning. 
    For those of you who insist that Ryles is the answer you don't know, you hope. I hope too, but stop pretending in Ryles we trust. 
    What happens in 2 years time when we aren't making the finals and things are grim again? New coach again? And suddenly Iongi is no good, and Lomax is over paid and Ryley Smith is overrated?? So we tear the joint down to the foundations and start again? 
    What a great way to run a professional club. If I was a sponsor paying my hundreds of thousands I'd be supremely pissed right now. This isn't schoolboy footy where we are simply proud of the effort. This is NRL, the formula 1 of the sport. Winning matters, the rest is irrelevant. 
    Go Parra, real fans never get upset or criticise. Yay, always next week. Yay. Go Parra. 

  • Another loss. How predictable. Yawn. 

  • It is hard for our forwards as Moretti i reckon has earned a start over Williams but he adds impact also. Though Samrani has beaten Guymer so that should be a simple switch. Unless Ryles bites the bullet and simplifies Hopgood's role by playing him at Prop and starting Walker at 13. Just say to Hopgood tuck it under your arm and run, don't worry about passing as a link man or offload needlessly, just run. Then Walker is out there earlier and we start better. 

    If Matterson and even Greig go early that has us at 26 of our top 30. Samrani and Kautoga could be upgraded for numbers but need 30 players by June 30. Now not sure who would let quality go now unless somehow we go in for Fifita if Gold Coast let him go now which is unlikely. But with letting go these players there has to be a plan, if we get to June 30 without one mid season player added, after Walker, then that is a failure on their part as it shows they are letting players go with no plan really at all. If they are looking for 2026 then keep players like Greig anyway as he is off-contract this year anyway.

This reply was deleted.

More stuff to read

Steel be with you replied to Offside's discussion Sean Russell
"I think in a perfect world if everyone was fully fit, Russell wouldn't get any game time. I was expecting that with Lomax coming to the club it would spell the end of him but it hasn't turned out to be the case."
1 hour ago
LB replied to ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER's discussion If moses get pick over Lui or clearly QLD wins
"I have never truly understood the idea of never kicking on the forth when camped in your own red zone. Kick on the 4th and better chance of pushing them back with only the Fullback collecting it."
2 hours ago
Richard B'Stard replied to Offside's discussion Sean Russell
"I like Penisini but if he can't add passing to his game he needs to go."
2 hours ago
LB replied to Hell On Eels's discussion R10 Game Day Blog: Can we keep the Fins at Bay?
"It is hard for our forwards as Moretti i reckon has earned a start over Williams but he adds impact also. Though Samrani has beaten Guymer so that should be a simple switch. Unless Ryles bites the bullet and simplifies Hopgood's role by playing him…"
2 hours ago
More…