Both the Eels and Rabbits, languishing in 14th and 17th last-place, have been free-falling down a Rabbit hole without a parachute since circa mid-last year. Both have the two worst defences in the competition this year.

It’s led to the sackings of both their head coaches and a progressive decline over the last few years from regular finals’ contenders to chumps.

And both have hope for better days ahead under new coaching heads.

This Saturday night, the Eels are facing 5-straight losses for the first time in six years since 2018.

Meanwhile, Souths are facing are facing 7-straight losses for the first time in eight years since 2016.

The last-placed Souths have had the wood on the Eels who haven’t beaten the Rabbits at Accor for seven years. One team will be hoping a victory sets in motion a recovery up the dark hole they're both in.

Teams

Time: 7.35pm, Saturday, 25 May 2024
Location:  Accor Stadium, Sydney

Sportsbet:  Eels favourites $1.72 - $2.13 Walker Ruled Out Souths slight favorites $1.89-$1.95

Weather: 13C cloudy
Referee:  Chris Butler
Bunker: Wyatt Raymond

Rabbitohs:

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Michael Chee Kam 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker (out with calf strain) 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Jacob Host 12. Jai Arrow 13. Keaon Koloamatangi 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tallis Duncan 16. Siliva Havili 17. Thomas Burgess 18. Dion Teaupa 19. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 20. Matthew French 21. Adam Christensen 22. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape

Caretaker coach: Ben Hornby

Eels:

1. Blaize Talagi 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Brendan Hands 19. Morgan Harper 20. Ethan Sanders 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Luca Moretti

Caretaker coach: Trent Barrett will be up against his former Dragons' teammate Hornby.

For the Eels, surprisingly there is little change after last week's anniliation. Ryan Matterson returns (from illness) into the second row and Bryce Cartwright is off the bench. There is no sign of Moses or Gutherson - possibly both due back in round 14. One wonders whether there will be last minute changes? Or is this a "reset, fresh-start, blank-slate" with "redemption" theme after a tough week losing their Father, Brad? Maybe, Barrett will tell us his thinking later in the week.

For Souths, despite a reasonable performance last week, marquee recruit Jack Wighton shifts to five-eighth, whilst Walker shifts to half-back. Taane Milne and Michael Chee-Kam start at centre with Tu’itupou and Thompson dropping out. Jacob Host returns from suspension and will start in the second row alongside Jai Arrow with Keaon Koloamatangi moving to lock.

Eels are now favorites with Walker out. But, statistically, Souths don't need Walker anywhere near as much as the Eels need Moses or Gutherson. They have never won a game without Moses and Gutherson out at the same time (0/4) and have lost the last 12 -straight without Gutherson. 

Statistically, Cody doesn't cause Souths to implode. It barely causes a change. With Cody they win at 56.7% (114/201) av. score 23.7 - 20.2 (+3.48). Without Cody they win at 55.2% (117/212) av. score 23.6-20.6 (+2.94). That's barely a 2% difference and half a point.

Mitchell and Wighton (above) combine brilliantly to set up a Johnson try last week | Getty Images

The Souths spine is looking far more accomplished and representative-class than the Eels. That could be a decisive factor deciding the game.

Stat Attack:

• The Eels have won 1 of their past 6 games against Souths.
• Since 2018 over the last six years, the Rabbits have had the wood on the Eels who have only won 2 of their last 10 (20%) against the Rabbits.
• Over the last ten games and six years games between these two have been high scoring affairs of almost 50 points scored on average (48.2pg).
• Souths concede almost half their tries on their left edge (29/60, 48%), whilst the Eels concede almost half their tries on their right edge (25/52, 48%).

• Souths have won 8-straight under referee Chris Butler. Eels have won 4 of their last 5 under him.

• South Sydney winger Alex Johnston has scored 9 tries in his past 4 games against the Eels.
• Eels winger Maika Sivo has scored 8 tries in his last 11 games at Accor Stadium.
• The Eels have not beaten the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium for seven years, since 2017 - losing the last four-straight.
• The Rabbitohs have won only 1 of their past 8 games at Accor Stadium.

Last Week

The Eels were demolished by the Storm, yet again imploding 32-6 in the second half (like the Dolphins game).

• Storm won 48-16 (8-3 tries); Half-time: Storm ahead 16-10
• Eels had a marginal advantage in possession (51%-49% overall), territory (61%-39% overall), penalties (4-2), set restarts (5-3), opportunities in the red zone (43-19 tackles in the 20m) but couldn’t take advantage of it.
• Storm made almost double the amount of linebreaks (10-6), made more offloads (21-20), less missed tackles (25-42)
• Equal error count (10-10)

In contrast, Souths lost a tight game against the Cowboys showing fight. 

• Cowboys won 28-22 (5-4 tries); Half-time: Cowboys ahead 16-12
• Souths won possession (53%-47%), had more opportunities in the Storm red zone (48-29 tackles in the 20m), more penalties (10-2), set restarts (4-3), made less errors (10-12).
• Cowboys had a territory advantage (59%-41%), made more offloads (13-10)
• Misses tackles were equal (42-42)
• Latrell and Walker brilliance kept Souths in the game.

As pre-empted in last week’s review, the Eels linespeed and intensity dropped off considerably, after two-weeks of being “on” and “up”. Hardly, surprising. Storm's picked up the ante to their highest linespeed levels all year (elite 7 level).

Souths meanwhile have have been up dramatically for the fight over the last two weeks after a lull.

Will Souths keep it up? Will the Eels bounceback or slump even further? This week it could go either way. I'm not as confident in the direction it'll go this week as last week.

When Munster (above) injured his groin (again) in the 39th minutes the scores were 16-10 to the Storm. And Eels’ fans could be forgiven for having hope that the Eels could pull off an miracle upset.

Yet right on the 49th minute - the Eels’ started their spectacular nosedive - once again. It’s been a theme all year.

You could almost set your clock to it.

From the 49th to 66th, a tad over 15 minutes - with Paulo, RCG, Lussick and Hopgood on - the score went from Storm leading 18-10 to 42-10. 

Warbrick slicing through the guts of the Eels  in the Storm's big R11 Magic win | Getty Images

 The Storm toyed with the Eels, and made them look ready for Second Division relegation.

The Middles’ engine over-heating and stalling

One of the Eels’ biggest issues since 2022 - and there were plenty of warning signs in that year too with plenty of blowout losses  - is their failure to adapt to the Speed Era in a V’landy’s Universe of six agains; attack, attack, attack. The Eels in the Arthurian era never quite perfected the previous era of slowing-the-ruck Wrestle-Defensive-Grind, let alone the latest.

A big part is the over-reliance of middle “power game” big boppers aided by Moses' kicking game and management and a handful of individuals such as Brown, Gutho, and now Hopgood. But it is without a plan B and little support elsewhere.

There is some correlation between losing and over-using Lussick and the middles have their minutes over-cooked. Hooker sharing does seem to produce better results.

There is a correlation between improved performance and increasing Hands minutes and decreasing Lussick's 80 minutes.

Lussick ,the oft-80 minute workhorse, and the middles have struggled on big minutes leaving spaces all around compressed, laterally compromised, immobile inside men | Getty Images

One wonders with the team selected if Lussick will get reduced minutes and the middles will have more optimized minutes - barring late changes and some shuffling around. 

Our backline yardage is the worst in the competition, as discussed in the round nine bye Houston We Have A Problem  (when the board had secretly decided to sack Arthur and chase Bennett). It's also coupled with limited potency or speed put wide to provide counter punch which again helps keep the engine room cooler.

It means that in the case the Eels are "on" for a fight, which does happen here and there, oppositions can either wait for the Eels to tire and implode middle-inside-out or attack different corridors and compress the Eels ruck middle and inside men, then exploit the spaces out wider of the ruck - short-side, long-side, on the edges it won't matter space will be there.

The Storm almost blew the Eels' engine gasket after the first 10 minutes or so by having 60% possession and playing uptempo.

Teams also know the Eels don't have the potency and speed to hurt them like the elite teams. So, it's a case of just staying with the Eels until they shoot themselves in the footy or you run through the spaces; whichever comes first. 

Alec McDonald, the Storm lock and utility, makes a bust and is chased unsuccessfully by the Eels backline to set up another Storm try   | Getty Images

This has been a problem even during the best of Arthur’s years (refer 2019-22). The Eels' compressed defensive ruck issue was pointed out by Matt Elliott Coaches’ Corner  in 2019; the start of Arthur's best years (2019-22). Don't forget Magic Round year Storm beat the Eels 64-10 (R9) in that Magic Round. 

It’s all used to be countered by enough wins and consecutive finals’ appearances. The weaknesses and vulnerabilities were put aside.

But, it's worse now. We're five years older. The game is getting faster, and we face aging issues with key cogs - in the 30-31 year zone - below peak performance and in progressive decline in power, acceleration, mobility and lateral agility. Something Souths know about.

The mixed views of Brandy, Voss and the team ask: Was Arthur’s sacking justified? 

 Gus' "grim reality" for the Eels: "There are no experienced successful coaches on the market (after Bennett)"

The End of An Era: Two Clubs in Free-fall

The Magic round 11 demolition job on the Eels marked the end of Brad Arthur’s 11-year, 264 game record tenure. The sacking probably gives Eels' fans some hope of better days ahead. At least in the short term.

It was Arthur’s 50th blow-out loss of an eighteen point margin or more; two days before his 50th birthday.

Both Souths and the Eels have fallen on tough times, with a spectacular fall from grace after 2022 and seem Pursuit of Happyness stuck in a vicious cycle.

Both have caretaker coaches and appear set to miss the finals for two straight years. At round 11 last year Souths were on top of the ladder and had just won 6-straight. They looked set to challenge for a title. Meanwhile, the Eels were rising up the ladder to sit 7th at R17 and looking set for another finals’ campaign. But the wheels feel apart shortly after and the rot has continued into this year.

Souths have have only won 6 of their last 23 games (26%). The Eels have only won 6 of their last 18 games (33%). Peas in a pod.

During those periods, Souths average score has been: 20.8 - 31.6 (-10.8). The Eels: 18.6 - 30.89pg (-12.3). 

That Eels' defensive rate of 30.89pg is worse than the worst defence in the Eels’ NRL history: the 2013 wooden spoon year conceding 30.83pg.

There is a lot of work to do for both clubs.

In a nutshell

Souths are likely to edge out the Eels this week, in a high-scoring 50 point or so game - given all the factors.

Their form was far better last week. They have a superior rep-quality spine. The Eels have never won a game without both Moses and Gutherson missing since they've been at the club. Souths’ also have a six-year wood over the Eels. There is also the seven-year Accor advantage. Plus, in a year the Eels have won once outside Parramatta. And then there's the Latrell x-factor if he shows up could break the game if he puts in.

The risk for the Eels is they could help play Souths into form punctuated by another shredding of our edges once the middles fall away on the inside and around the ruck and the defensive line loses all cohesion.

Perhaps, Souths might also be lifted by the auric winds of Wayne's watching.

For the Eels to win and they can, they will need to lift dramatically on last week, and conjure up fight for far longer than 49 minutes. They need to do enough of the fundamentals right enough with intensity and not implode into a Ben-Sanderson, self-sabotaging, dog’s breakfast while icing more of their opportunities. It's something they’ll failed to do almost every week, especially all at once.

Part of answer could very revolve around Barrett's use of Lussick and managing the Eels’ middles to maximise their benefit and not lead to an inevitable snowballing collapse everywhere exposing their perennially vulnerable and oft-nervous edges lacking speed.

It will be interesting to see if there is any significant strategic changes from him. The team listed doesn't scream change though, hitherto.

So, whether the team lifts for him - or themselves and each other for heaven's sake - or stumbles even further down the hole, we'll find out. But teams usually lose their first one or two games or so under a caretaker coach.

Both teams are free-falling into the abyss, but one will break their contagious losing-streak. And wield a desperate axe-hammer to climb back up towards the light.

Sybil and the Rabbit are tumbling down the dark rabbit hole without a parachute.