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2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.

Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.

 

Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.

 

The Good

 

Ample Opportunities

 

Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average),  followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).

 

Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.

 

High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).

 

Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).

 

Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).

 

Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).

Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).

 

Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.

 

The Bad

We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.

  • R10: Broncos at Commbank
  • R11: Storm at Suncorp
  • R12: Rabbits at Accor
  • R13: Sharks at Commbank
  • R14: Dogs at Accor
  • R15: Roosters at Commbank

If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.

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The Ugly

 

Ruts, Regression and Depression

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The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.

I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.

Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).

That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).

Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game. 

 

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We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.

During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.

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It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.

 

Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year

12490083683?profile=RESIZE_710xGetty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council 

 

We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points

Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D). 

Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.

We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).

 

Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013

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Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th). 

That’s the worst under the Arthur era.

It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively). 

Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.

We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).

Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th). 

We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.

We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities. 

There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.

 

A tale of Mercurial extremes

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Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.

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Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era 

 

In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).

Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.

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Is there a doctor in the house?

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Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era

 

Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by. 

In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017). 

In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.

 

Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss. 

In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week. 

In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.

However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.

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A scene from the exorcist. 

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49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff

 

In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.

“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”

 

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The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.

After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.

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Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths. 

12490092087?profile=RESIZE_710xSeven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.

 

No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.

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The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again

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According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.

That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon. 

Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.

Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.

It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.

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King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.


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Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.

Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).

Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.

Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).

Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ),  Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).

Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.

Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.

Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright  is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).

Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).

Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).

All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.

Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.

 

Father Time is coming: Tick Tock

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The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)

  

Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.

In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.

It’s a beautiful idea.

The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.

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From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).

Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
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Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).

 

For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?

 

 

Some more good news, with some sweet and sour

 

Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.

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Sue Coleman (above),  a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).

The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.

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In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.

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Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.

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O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.

“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.

That part of the report has aged well.

 

What will it take?

The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.

Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.

At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).

Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.

But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.

How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?

Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.

 

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Replies

  • That is the concern HOE, will Moses coming back lead to a few wins and masking the real concerns at the club that need to be dealt with so we can move forward? If it is masked we could go into another 2-3 years of the yo-yo effect we currently have of looking alright then fall apart then look promising again and it repeats.

    • That's my concern too.

      A few wins and suddenly all is well according to the board and then they extend BA for a few more years.

      Rinse repeat and the problem will continue with no end in sight.

    • Moses shouldn't be rushed back, he needs as near the maximum recovery time they recommend. But The board shouldn't wait until he is back to make a decision. Because what decision can they make in those few games that they can't already make now? They need to sack BA before Moses is back or they're just going to use it as an excuse.

       

  • Age of players seems to be a factor in a lot of discussion. Bennett is a smart guy by having the foresight and understanding with engaging someone like Dr Jauncey to be part of his coaching team.. An ageing Coach like Bennett may or may not be part of our future in the short term. I would put my faith in having Jauncey very much involved with looking at what up and coming coaches would be smart enough and be tuned into reading how to play the game in the Bennett / Jauncey approach..A smart and psychologically sensitive coach would have a lot more resources to be more flexible and adaptable to challenges when they arise. Changing or influencing individuals into playing like an empowered team is much more complex than just making up a game plan and expecting players to follow "directions ". Instincts to play to your ability to what's in front of you with some disciplines is where the difficulties are 

    Thanks for the effort you put into this blog HOE

    • Great Blog Phil, the reality is not in the stats just the same, when you are not good enough and the stats confirm that, there is nothing to do but change.Motivation is not the driver in this case IMO. The stats actually indicate they are trying, especially for the supporters/ lol

      We all agree the changes have to start at the top with Mon and BA leaving the fold. 

      Then we come to the next stage as to who is going to make that choice and when?

      Finally and in keeping with Tad's solution of its all in the mind, we have a real need for  Dr Jauncey and its not with the players. Yes it is with the board because those decision outlined have to come from there..... I wonder if they would be receptive to some motivation. That would be a meeting I would love to faciiitate, although I think Daz is the man to do that, you and NOS are much too nice. Lol..... excuse me for putting me in that class (I'm way short), its just that I love a plan!

      By the way Phil, your comment/s on Sue Coleman are very perceptive and I hope it opens the eyes of some of the "blind freddies" on here. I saw the appoinment as tokenism, which it was, but it does not mean she is not qualified at every level with the exception of not having played the game. 

      I was thinking as I read her profile (you have previously also outlined her qualifications) that she is just likely as an outsider coming in, to be as demanding as any "stylised profile director" as good as any we have at least. She just might have the balls to ask why we aren't doing some things differently.

      My guess is she has been down this path before!

      • Thanks Pops. You're right. Stats can be horribly misleading.

        Like when we say we've had 49 blowout losses. 

        It sounds like holy sheet our defence is crap (and it has been). But, actually we've also had almost as many big wins. 

        So, the reality here is that "both" show more.

        They show our "off-on" mentality which has always been my concern (watching us over the decades) and ability to implode even if we have the "potential" to be a good side on our "good days".

        It confirms my thoughts and gut feeling about us for a long time.

        "I think" is stronger with evidence in support.

        Yeah, being "nice" with "nice" intentions doesn't always lead to "nice" consequences.

        Sarantinos seems to be an intelligent, "nice" bloke. But it's going to cost him and our club dearly if he doesn't make some hard "not so nice" calls soon. Still, it also pays to keep our inner monster well managed lol.

        On Sue: honestly, she's probably the least of our problems.

        Despite all the funny wit, I think a few of us were being short-sighted and letting our right-winged, conservative ideologies and "woke-allergies" get the better of us, using the old pumpkin. Plus, we're all or many of us (me included) are pretty emotional about the state of affairs.

        It's not because Sue will help our footy side all that much despite being a diehard supporter and longtime local. 

        It's because of her experience, competence when it comes to community related projects, coupled with her inner understanding of the workings of councils and in particular Parra Council who's she been an executive with since 2007.

        The club needs to deal with councils and do community related activities.

        Do you want our head of football, head coach or footy brains in the club to spend time focusing on organising community related projects or dealing with councils?

        Or would you rather someone experienced and competent in this field (yeah so she's a woman, big deal) who loves Parra to death doing it? 

        It reminds me of the fable of the grumpy, husband  complaining how hard his field-work is, and how easy his wife has it looking after farm house stuff. That is, until they swap roles. And the husband is completely useless at farm-house stuff and practically kills the cow and turn it into a complete and utter mess. Naturally, he can't wait until he gets back to his field work, lol and he then appreciates what his wife does.

        I mean we get millions in donations from the community and we have a Multi year partnership with Parra Council. Plus, all clubs do community related activities. You don't think the kids who see players come to hospitals get something from that (as do their parents, who tell other parents)?

        Still, sure, you got to wonder why not just keep her on the PLC board? Why flip flop her to the PNRL?  And not for the first time in 5-6 years that she's been in the club as a director (got re-elected as PLC director in Feb 2024).

        That part make me wonder. It's like they're playing some sort of usual waste-of-time boardroom musical-chair politics. Dunno, really. Maybe they have some valid reasons. On the surface it just looks like mindless bollocks.

        But, whatever the case is, her specific role and experience is not nothing or "just" tokenism. It's useful for our club.

        So, what the feck is the problem with having her?

        • I think PLC are allowed 2 members on the board, the fact that she has been on Football previously could be encouraging as I am sure that the PLC has informally amongst themselves talked about the "team" and if consensus is normal human reactions, they just might think like we do and look for change. This would of course and I am really drawing the bow here, mean that Sue might be the one to stir them up.

          Who knows, I believe someone that knows something about Sue's personality could give us an "inkling"......any takers out there for that one?

          • Pops, thanks mate. So a PLC director (or two) is allowed to or normally sits simultaneously on both the PLC &  PNRL boards? 

            I suppose the mystery of why she needs to be on both boards - once again sitting on both horses - remains.

            She's also sitting on a few other boards and one Parra Justice Clinic Board as a Parra Council representative. 

            Hope you're right about the "why" or "what" she's doing. Anyone pushing for changes up top would be a blessing.

            I dunno either Pops. Maybe, it's also something simple like they want her more intimately involved with some PNRL-related community projects or fundraisers and the like (perhaps even COE related items). Who knows...

            • It could be that as a condition of the sponsorship from Parramatta Council, they get representation on one or both boards?

               

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