In Leaving Las Vegas, the iconic and enigmatic Nicolas Cage is a perfect fit as the inebriated Ben Sanderson in this critically acclaimed heartbreaking tragedy-drama of 1995. The often intoxicated Sanderson is on a self-sabotaging path to destruction after losing everything in his life. His job. Family. Friends.

I don’t know if my wife left me because of my drinking or I started drinking 'cause my wife left me.

Ben Sanderson, laments on  his self-sabotaging ways

“I won’t see a doctor”, says Ben, sticking to his guns, almost surrendering to his ill-fated demise.

Like Sanderson, we’re imploding, losing, heading towards a self-sabotaging abyss and seemingly clueless about how to get ourselves out of the rut other than maintain the status quo.

And now, it's going from bad to worse with the loss of Gutherson for a month or so on top of Moses. The Eels have never won when both have been missing at the same time (0/2).

The Eels have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 76 points in their past two games, in the midst of a trending decline from mid-2023.

Brad Arthur and Clint Gutherson (above) reflect on the R8 Manly loss and our self-sabotaging dumbness.

Tomorrow night, our under-seige team will face a Broncos squad that should be highly motivated to hit back with venom after getting 18-40 by the Roosters last week. 

The Broncos have won 3 of their last 4 games and were on a three-straight winning stretch before that embarrassing loss. 

However, unlike Ben Sanderson who delighted in self-sabotaging talk, the noise coming out of the Eels camp is one of confidence.

The Broncos will feel supremely confident they have the diabolically weakened Parramatta's measure.

They have won 3 of their past 4 games against the Eels and are littered with Origin class players and Reece-lightning athleticism.

Teams

Date and Venue: Friday, 10 May 2024, 8:00 pm, CommBank Stadium
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Weather: 15C, cloudy, potentially showery (or raining cricket balls)
Sportsbet Odds: Eels $3.20 to Broncos $1.35

Eels

1. Blaize Talagi 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Ethan Sanders 7. Dylan Brown (c) 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo (c) 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Joe Ofahengaue 22. Brendan Hands 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Luca Moretti 19. Morgan Harper 20. Daejarn Asi 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Brendan Hand

Head Coach: Brad Arthur

Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Joshua Rogers 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan (c) Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Tristan Sailor 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Benjamin Te Kura 21. Jordan Pereira 22. Blake Mozer

Head Coach: Kevin Walters

Team Notes:

For the Eels, the big news is Dylan Brown's appointment as co-captain and Blaize Talagi at fullback in his first NRL game there. He takes over the irreplaceable Gutherson (minor knee surgery) who has been the heart and soul of the Eels since 2016 and rarely misses games. Sean Russell comes into the starting side with Morgan Harper (named in the NSW Cup side in the centres) dropping to the reserve bench. Also, Bryce Cartwright (rib) returns and shifts Brendan Hands (named in the NSW Cup side at six) to the reserves bench as well.  Hands come into the 17 for Cartwright who succumbed to his rib injury.

For the Broncos, Jock Madden, the usual backup half for Adam Reynolds is still out injured (pectoral). So, in comes third-string half backup, Joshua Rogers (the leading Cup pointscorer) for his second NRL game at halfback. Corey Oates comes in for Jesse Arthurs (fractured jaw). Also, Fletcher Baker is out for journey-man Jack Gosiewski, a new signing, who comes in for his first game in Broncos’ colours.

The Experiment 

 Arthur and the club desperately want to retain Blaize Talagi; even if his best position is still in the air 

Brad Arthur has put with Blaize at centre, then five-eighth, as a middle utility with an x-factor around the "middle" and now at fullback.

It's been partly an experiment and partly out of necessity with injuries.

When asked today by the media if Blaize is a “natural one”, Brad Arthur played a straight bat with the full face.

I don’t know (if Talagi is a natural fullback). So, people will think it’s my job and I should know, but...

Brad Arthur responds to questions about Talagi earlier today

   

“But he’s one of those kids that can play anywhere. I just know he is an NRL player.”

“He’s the future of the club.”

“It’s hard to be a fullback in the NRL. It takes a lot of time to learn that role. Clint Gutherson is one of the best defensive fullbacks in the game. It’s taken him a long time to get to that stage”.

“The only way you can get experience is by playing against the big boys.”

“It’s an opportunity for Blaize to show us he has the makings of an NRL fullback.”

I just wonder if Blaize's head is in a washing machine, with all the positions, he's played. It doesn't help the Eels over the last 16 games are approaching the worst defensively in our NRL history.

Arthur was also glowing in his praise of newly appointed co-captain, Dylan, who Arthur called “inspirational” as a reward and symbol of how highly regarded he is at the club and by him.

“When I told him he was going to be captain he couldn’t get the smile off his face.”

“I’m hoping the extra responsibility will give him that shot of confidence. Not that he is short of confidence, but ... ”

“We know how good he can be.”

Stat Attack

Stats are correct as of the end of round nine and are from FoxSports unless noted otherwise.

• Post Bye: 67% of teams (6/9) have won after the bye, but the byes didn’t help Souths (L54-20), the Titans (L32-0), or the Tigers (L32-12)
• Without Gutherson: The Eels have lost their last nine games without fullback Clint Gutherson
• Gerard Sutton: The Eels have a poor record under him winning 4 of the last 12 (33%) over 2020-24 which is not far from their overall record under him (16/ 43, 37.2% since 2009). 
• Commbank Carty Party: Bryce Cartwright has scored six tries in his past six games at CommBank Stadium
• Attack: The Eels are poor in 11th (score 19.6 ppg), the Broncos are 5th (score 26 ppg).
• Possession: The Eels are 3rd (51.5% average), the Broncos are 12th (49.3% average).
• Run Metres: The Eels are struggling in 12th for run metres per game, the Broncos are 5th.
• Defence: The Eels are 14th (concede 26.5 ppg), the Broncos are 9th (concede 21.3 ppg)
• Conceding Linbreaks: The Eels concede the most 17th (6.9 pg), the Broncos are fifth-worst ( 5 pg)
• Linespeed (pre-contact m): The Eels have the second-worst, the Broncos have the fastest. This uses nrl.com stats
• Penalties Awarded: The Eels, 2nd best (6.5pg) get more penalties than the Broncos, 13th (4.7 pg)
• Penalties conceded: The Eels are fourth-worst (6 pg), the Broncos are more disciplined here at 3rd (4.4 pg)
• Errors: The Eels don’t concede many errors in the big scheme of things 16th (9.4 pg); the Broncos concede far more third-worst (11.9 pg)

No Rudder, No Heartbeat

 Captain Gutherson desperately need minor kneee surgery

The consequences of living without General Moses is bad enough. But it gets worse now.

The Eels have lost their last nine games without fullback Clint Gutherson.

And it gets even more diabolical, Sanderson-in-a-saucer like, without Moses and Gutherson. 

In the two games we were without both Moses and Gutherson, we lost both lost. Fifteen tries to Three. 16-86. 

Those two heavy losses were back in 2021 (R25, L6-40 v Panthers, CBUS) and 2023 (R19, L10-46 v Warriors, Commbank).

Fortunately, Gutherson has rarely been absent. This is only the fourth time since 2016. He has been remarkably durable considering his ACL riddled past. In contrast, Reynolds is out for the ninth time, since 2022, probably for most of this season until the finals.

Meanwhile, the Broncos win often without Reynolds (won 2/3 this year). Penrith win often without Cleary (won 3 / 4 this year). The Knights have won two straight without Ponga their superstar fullback.

Even the Raiders won without Jamal Fogarty last week in an almightly comeback after being down 20-0 after 28 minutes against Manly winning 26-24. They looked like they were going to join us in Las Vegas after getting belted 40-0 by the Sharks in round eight without Fogarty. They found a way.

Bizarrely, the Broncos have won 7/11 (63.6%) when Reynolds is out, a fraction better than when he plays (63.3%, 38/60). That makes no sense, but stats don't care about our feelings. However, something is misleading about them; potentially skewed by Reynolds' getting injured mid-game.

One only needs to watch this year’s games against Storm (R5, L34-32) and Roosters (R9, L18-40) to see the dramatic influence of Reynolds. After Reynolds went off in the second half due to injury in those games, the Broncos were a completely different team. Headless at times. Last week against the Roosters the scores blew out from 10-18 to 40-18 after Reynolds went off injured.

Another difference between the Eels and the Broncos is: Walters stopped using fifty-eighth Ezra Mam as an experimental halfback after two games despite winning both (R11-R12, 2022). He figured quickly Mam was not an out-an-out half and went with a more natural halfback, Jock Madden with Ezra Mam at six.

In contrast, Arthur persists with Dylan Brown at halfback, despite Trent Barrett, Arthur’s assistant, admitting "we know Dylan is not an out-and-out half". The view being that Dylan will improve his game there and be more influential even when Moses returns. 

It goes deeper than Moses

It would be dangerous to assume the Eels' woes this year revolve solely around the loss of Moses.

At best, it would suggest the Eels' have issues with their structures, systems, depth and senior leadership groups who have a wealth of NRL playing experience to counter the loss of some individuals.

Additionally, the Eels have been in sharp decline since 2020, especially since mid-2023.

After R17, 2023 the Eels have leaked almost 30 points a game (29.9 pg) over a 16-game period.

That’s the second-worst rate in our NRL history.

It's a worse rate than the Kearney-coached Eels spoon-winners of 2012  (conceding 28.1 pg). Worse than Arthur’s lowest moment in his 2018 Eels’ spoon-winners (conceding 22.9 pg). It’s only a tick better than Stuart’s 2013 spoon winners (30.9 ppg): the worst. Refer to the below graph.

Graph (above) on the Eels' points conceded per NRL season versus the last 16 games.

For more details on the Eels' decline post 2022, refer to Houstin in Hindsight and The Rise and Fall of the Eels.

No Soul-Searching, No Pilgrimages 

Unlike Sanderson’s lost soul and cluelessness how to avoid his inevitable demise, the Eels senior players who fronted the media yesterday Joey Lussick,  Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane with “full confidence in their systems” along with everyone “owing their role” mantras.

Lane humorously scoffed at questions as to whether Eels had done any “soul-searching” over the bye.

“Soul-searching?” Lane asked with a bemused look on his face.

“No, there haven’t been any pilgrimages or anything like that."

He added they just enjoyed the bye “like normal people.”

Lane believed, not unlike Hindmarsh's "they're not far" ideas, that Eels had shown good signs throughout the season and against Manly, blaming sin-bins, dumb implosions (Sivo) among other things inter-alia for the loss.

“I don’t listen to anyone outside these four walls," Lane added.

Brad Arthur is also blocking out all the external noise and speculation about his future.

“It doesn’t bother me (the speculation) … I know exactly what the club is thinking."

"I know I’ve got their support. I one hundred per cent mean that.”

“And I’m grateful for it, because it allows me to coach and not coach scared.”

“It makes a massive difference (to his staff, his players, and everyone there).”

Considering the Eels have only won one game outside of Commbank after R17, 2023, it is no surprise Matterson expressed excitement at returning home.

“When we play at Commbank, the boys turn up," Matterson beamed.

 “Our fans are what we play for and they are very vocal. And they back us a hundred percent of the time. And we love playing on our home ground. ”

“We’d love the Blue and Gold Army to turn up every week.”

In a nutshell 

It’s difficult to be overly optimistic about the Eels’ chances, especially missing Moses and Gutherson their two most influential cogs. This is despite the Broncos missing Reynolds and Madden, their first-and-second-string halfbacks. They’ve coped without Reynolds. They've had to adapt considering his proclivity for injuries. We haven’t coped well nor adapted to life without our General let alone King Gutho as well.

The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the Stuart-Kearney multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era. The Eels are quasi-Sanderson, free-falling without a parachute. But they are also known for being predictably unpredictable, consistently inconsistent, week-to-week, half-to-half.

Tomorrow night, the Eels are against arguably the most talented, athletic back-line in the competition with deadly potency and strike that some tip to win the premiership this year.

Common sense says this game should be played at the SCG where the Broncos will rack up a cricket score. So far, the score without Moses and Gutho is 16-86.

If the Eels stay Sanderson-sober and play out of their skins, for long enough, and the Broncos have a few too many Sanderson moments laced with over-confidence, miracles can happen. Just don’t outlay any real money on the Eels. You'll probably lose your socks.