The Eels host the Sea Eagles tonight at CommBank in what’s shaping up to be a wet, potentially scrappy and grinding affair — fitting for Junior Paulo’s 250th milestone. Both sides are coming off impressive wins, but consistency in this competition has been as rare as dry turf in Sydney lately.
Manly roll in as warm favourites, but history leans Eels at home. They’ve taken the last three-straight at home against the Eagles, and haven’t lost to them here in four years - since 2021. Still, with inuries and key Origin stars missing on both sides — Moses, Lomax, Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic — this is anyone’s guess.
It’s Junz's 250th — and the Eels need more than just cake.
Team Lists
Friday, 23 May 2025, CommBank Stadium, 8pm AEST
Weather: Wet, Cloudy, around 17˚C (probably not reach dew point at 12˚C), 9-22km/h winds (could be gust), around 75% humidity
Ground: Could be interesting
Sportsbet: $2.74 Eels, Tigers $1.47 Eagles
Referees: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Phil Henderson (touch judge), Grant Atkins (senior review official, the bunker’s buzz in the ref’s ear).
Eels:
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 12. Kitione Kautoga 15. Luca Moretti 13. J’maine Hopgood
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 11. Kelma Tuilagi 16. Ryan Matterson 18. Joash Papali’i
18th Man: 17. Matt Doorey
Cut: 19. Joey Lussick 20. Toni Mataele 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Samuel Loizou
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Sea Eagles:
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 15. Corey Waddell 13. Jazz Tevaga
Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge 22. Caleb Navale
18th Man: 18. Clayton Faulalo
Cut: 12. Ben Trbojevic 19. Brandon Wakeham 20. Tommy Talau 21. Michael Chee Kam
Head Coach: Anthony Seibold
Key Ins and Outs.
Eels. Ins - Papali’i debuts, Hawkins, Samrani, Tuilagi. Outs - Moses, Lomax and Mataele
Manly. Ins - Arthur, Waddell. Outs - Ben Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic
Stats
The Eels have only taken 4 of the last 10 against Manly — but they’ve won 5 of their last 6 against them at CommBank.
Wingers love this turf.
- Reuben Garrick: 13 tries in 13 vs Eels
- Jason Saab: 4 tries in last 4 at CommBank
- Josh Addo-Carr: 7 in 7 here — can the Fox feast again?
Can the Fox keep up his try-scoring feast tonight up against fellow speedsters in the wet?
By the numbers
| Attack | ppg | Defence | ppg | |
| 1 | Storm (4) | 33.8 | Bulldogs (1) | 15.8 |
| 2 | Raiders (3) | 28.9 | Sharks (5) | 18.7 |
| 3 | Bulldogs (1) | 26.8 | Warriors (2) | 20.0 |
| 4 | Broncos (9) | 26.2 | Knights (15) | 20.2 |
| 5 | Sharks (5) | 25.1 | Storm (4) | 20.3 |
| 6 | Manly (6) | 24.8 | Manly (6) | 21.0 |
| 7 | Panthers (13) | 24.4 | Souths (7) | 21.2 |
| 9 | Dragons (10) | 22.8 | Dolphins (14) | 22.2 |
| 8 | Cowboys (8) | 22.8 | Broncos (9) | 22.4 |
| 10 | Dolphins (14) | 22.7 | Raiders (3) | 23.1 |
| 11 | Roosters (11) | 22.4 | Dragons (10) | 23.9 |
| 12 | Titans (17) | 21.0 | Panthers (13) | 24.6 |
| 13 | Tigers (12) | 20.5 | Tigers (12) | 25.5 |
| 14 | Warriors (2) | 20.5 | Cowboys (8) | 26.0 |
| 15 | Eels (16) | 17.9 | Roosters (11) | 27.0 |
| 16 | Souths (7) | 16.5 | Eels (16) | 27.8 |
| 17 | Knights (15) | 12.8 | Titans (17) | 31.0 |
Statistically, Manly should take this. But footy isn’t played on spreadsheets, and the Eels seem to be improving.
The Hunt for Resilience and Consistency
As Ryles begins to reshape the club and harden its culture, a key focus has been shoring up the team's soft underbelly—a weakness that defined much of the Arthur era. That period was marked by maddening Jekyll-and-Hyde inconsistency, swinging wildly from promise to collapse, often week-to-week. The fall actually began post-2020, defensively, and by mid-2023 the decline was in freefall, and 2024 saw biblical second-half implosions that became the stuff of nightmares.
Now, there's a flicker of hope. The eye test hints at progress—slow, gritty, but real. Still, time will tell if the foundation is truly solid or just another false dawn.
| R1-2 | LL | Blowouts | Concede 44.0 ppg |
| R3-5 | LLW | Signs of Life | Concede 22.3 ppg |
| R6 | L | Blowout at Darwin | Concede 50 |
| R7-11 | WBLLW | Stabilizing | Concede 19 ppg |
So, will we see a fall this week or continued resilience? If the recent defensive trend holds, 19 points per game is not just respectable—it’s top-four defence standard in this topsy-turvy competition. But don’t exhale yet. We've seen this movie before.
Last week, Jack Williams made some power-packed runs: quality over quantity. More of that, please.
Final Word
Who will adapt best?
Execution, pack dominance, ball control and the errors will be everything. It could become a battle of blunders. The Eels have made more errors than their opponent in every game this year, bar three. Manly matched their 15 errors last week. Commbank's lights also makes it challenging when it comes to defusing high balls. Should we expect chaos?
Who's spine and playmakers will rise? The Eels have won only 4 of 21 games without Moses — but 3 of those 4 were at CommBank. They rise at home more often. Similarly, Manly are 3 from 8 without DCE in the last five seasons - but 2 of those 3 wins were at home at 4Pines. They rarely go to war without him.
It’s Paulo’s night, but he won’t want fanfare — just two points. .
Manly want to consolidate their position in the top eight. The Eels want redemption, against the odds. Who wants it more in the mud? Who can keep their head more?
The Eels celebrate after last week's big 26-6 win over the Knights at Newcastle. Can they make it two-straight for the first time this year and do it for Junz?
Replies
Great write up, parra a big chance with burbo out now to
Great effort Hoe, thanks for the outline. Burbo out is a boon for us, he's hitting his straps of late and looks to be overtaking his kin in performance. My take on the game is it will be played on a damp track at worst but we'll see. Cut Russell out of the play and score close in.
Hi Hoey
I wrote the theme of this on another post but I think the content is relevant to the game day blog. The conditions of this game shape up as similar to last nights where we saw interesting tactics and also showed up the light and mobile pack that was the dogs downfall.
This is a different opportunity for us without Moses and Lomax.
Hopefully the boys have been taken aside and watched (again in many cases) last nights game between the dogs and dolphins.
Couple of things stand out i.e. concentation on every play (and the play the ball, number of air swings last night), a simple plan to advise each other the care in every play, the fact the ball will stop and not roll, so kick deep to the corners. Possesion will turn over pretty regularly.
Finally kicking from line drop outs are better going long and low. Grubber kicks in the red zone should be a mandatory option and follow through, no "star jumping" for high balls. Impossible to take those sort of catches in those conditions.
Papilli and JAC should be using their speed to chase down town kicks, no back is going to rip you apart on the return and watch Saab, he will be under most high balls ....look for his tap backs and clean up behind where he jumps.
The information was all there in the game last night, just focus!.....we have a wonderful opportunity to be smarter than our opponents....dont fcuk it up.
Quality as always HOE, our ball movement would usually worry the not so mobile Manly pack but the weather makes it a different beast tonight.
The Eels are certainly due to hang onto the pill , only twice this year have we completed over %80 and both were wins against the Dragons and Tigers.
The next best was %78 against the knights , also a win.
Im sure it'll be a focus of Ryles and the boys tonight.
Hang onto the pill we win, it's that simple.
Manly by 10 pts
Happy 250th Jr Paulo... Fantastic milestone!. In this sport to play 250 is absolutely amazing...he has been a great servant for Parra and plays in the hardest position.
Won't the game be cancelled with all the current flooding? Wouldn't duty of care come into the equation
Stay safe, stay safe, stay safe..... Repeat. Also if you havn't heard, don't drive in flood water. Except sometimes when it's perfectly safe to do so.
Nice one HOE.
Penis to drop the ball more times than points Parra score.
Shegulls by 24+
This is the type of game Penisini should revel in, low to the ground , strong through the hips in the wet means your harder to tackle.
Im one of his biggest critics but he's a massive chance to get a meat pie tonight hands permitting.
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