Trent Barrett was both encouraged and frustrated by the Eels' round fifteen 28-18 loss against the Roosters.
Miraculously, the Eels came back from a 16-0 onslaught to lead 18-16 with 30 minutes to go. Then, like much of 2024 we could not win the game from a winning position, losing the last quarter.
"In the first half, we were down to 12 men, and to keep them to twelve points was a really big effort. And then to get back from 16-nil and to lead them (18-16) was a really good effort from them," Barrett pointed out in the post-game pressor.
"They were very brave and committed to each other, and have been for the past three or four weeks.
"But a couple of moments got away from us where we probably needed to nail them."
"I am encouraged to see how much they care about each other and how much they care about the club. Really encouraged about that."
"Again, we played three good sides in the last three weeks (Sharks, Dogs, Roosters) and been in every game, and beat Cronulla."
"But, we've just got to learn that the NRL is a tough competition, particularly when you play good sides. You need to nail those big ones."
Defensively the Eels' left edge (Asi) improved on last week, too.
"I thought our left edge was pretty good tonight, actually...they've (Roosters) got a red hot backline."
"We needed a bit of luck there in the end, too. We couldn't quite get it. That tends to happen when you're in this position (lowly on the ladder and struggling for wins)."
"We can take a lot from it."
The Eels look despondent, seemingly aware of their impending fate, in their 28-18 loss against the Roosters (R15,2024) | Getty Images.
What happened against the Roosters has been a theme throughout the year.
In 10 of 14 games in the second half we have been ahead at various stages, only to lose most of them (6/10).
The fact of the matter is we have been losing the closing stages of the game - the last quarter or 30 minutes - in every game.
It's not a matter of if - it's when, and by how much.
Not if - When and by How Much ?
When Moses was missing we would starting imploding from around the 49-52nd minute and often by a far margin (and we lost 7 from 8).
During that Moses-less period, some of the scorelines in the last 30 minutes - 24-4 (Raiders), 40-6 (Dolphins), 20-4 (Manly), 38-6 (Storm) - deserve their own Saw movie; one that Jigsaw would be proud of.
Sure, the Eels are a different team with Moses.
The Eels lost 7 from 8 when Moses was out, and won 3 from 6 with him. They also lost the last 13 straight without Gutherson.
It would be easy - and lazy - to assume that the only issue was us missing Moses.
As you can see, Moses only delays the inevitable fade out - by another 10-15 minutes. Instead of imploding around the 49th-52nd minute mark, we'd do it by the 59th-67th minute. Eventually, gasing out one way or another.
Even in games we won, we lost the last quarters of the game. Again - every game.
Why?
What are the possible factors? Is it a fitness issue, fatigue, a lack of mental resilience, low confidence, some kind of inexplicable Leaving Las Vegas Ben Sanderson-like self-sabotaging implosion (cue a call to Wayne Bennett's Dr Jauncey)? Or is it just that we're hopeless? Perhaps, it's some conspired game plan strategy that every opposition coach employs: To wear out the ageing middles that do compressed and dogs' breakfast for fun and expose the lack of speed and arm grabbers when isolated with simple sweeps? Or for the bench lovers, all we need is a better bench with better rotations (Lussick for 80 was a bad idea)?
Perhaps, it's some of these or all. Whatever the case, Houston-we-have-a-problem that's probably bigger than Kong's rotten tooth in Kong Versus Godzilla.
Bigger picture
Let's stand back for a moment from this horror show. Where's Alfred Hitchcock when you need him?
Let's look at some trends.
Between 2019 and 2022 we only lost one game when ahead at half-time in the regular season (Penrith, 2019) as well as one in a semi-final (Souths semi-final 2020). The bulk of this year's squad was there.
Back then, we the "Front Runners" who relied on getting to the lead to win. Remember those times? It's easy to forget when in pain with all these second-half fades.
That's not the only area that's declined.
The Eels defence improved from 13th (2018) to 7th (2019), then to 3rd (2020) at its highest. But since 2020 the Eels' defensive rank has been going south steadily a rung at a time - from 3rd to 4th (2021), 8th (2022), 11th (2023), and now free-falling to 16th (2024).
Even our attack has now slumped to 14th (it was 5th-7th between 2020-2023).
We can barely win a game outside of Commbank. Since mid-last year (after R17), we've won one game outside Parramatta. Just one.
NRL stats paint a picture.
Our run metres as 15th, third-worst. We were one of the best not long ago and have dropped from top three (2019-2022) and 4th (2023). It's more than just a back five yardage issue (which we're probably the worst in the comp for).
We're still up there with the kings of offloads (2nd) to date this year and have been top-two (2019-2023) for some time.
Possession levels, important for our middle power game, is still thereabouts. To date this year, we're equal second possession at 51.5% (3rd, 2024). That's not far off what we were in our good years (2019-22): 50.7 (2nd, 2023), 52% (3rd, 2022), 52.3% (3rd, 2021), 51.4% (3rd, 2020), and 50.8% (3rd, 2019), and 48.1% (last, 2018).
Occam's razor
Whichever, way I turn in this decline theme I keep coming back to the most simple of explanations. Father time is catching up to us.
That seems a highly likely, correlating factor with the bigger-picture declining trends.
We can see that with Gutherson and most of our senior citizens (other than Moses and Cartwright to an extent). Good halves who depend on game management and leadership can last into their mid 30s. Others who rely on power metrics (and type II fast-twitch etc) decline well before then, usually from the late 20s.
Paolo, RCG, Matterson, Sivo, Gutherson, Cartwright, Moses, Makatoa and Lane hit circa 30-31 this year. Even Joe Ofahengaue and Joey Lussick hit circa 29 soon enough. That's up to 11 from the starting 17. Five years ago, circa 2019, these guys are in still in their peak.
This seven-year study by the Eye Test people is the best age NRL-related analysis I have found. It's a decent read with excellent insights.
Perhaps, the team is busting their guts, no? The team has shown fight. Barrett is correct in many ways.
Perhaps, no less than they have during 2019-2022. Even in that year we suffered some horrendous losses. We can't put the declining factors down to missing the likes of Reed, Ice or Nuikore from the 2022 squad. That would be negligent and a lazy out at best. A self-lying fairytale at worst.
Perhaps all teams need to do is stay with us for the bulk of the game, and then they'll eventually get over the top of us. We won't last the full 12 rounds.
The Eels remind me of an ageing boxer. Competitive for a good portion of the fight but suspectible to being knocked out due to ailing reflexes & fast twitch muscles. They'll win some fights, perhaps on hard-won points, but they're nothing like what they were. I love Deontay Wilder, but he's gone; slipped years ago. Fenech was great but gone by the late 20s.
Does anyone remember a young Nathan Hindmarsh who used to have a barnstorming, damaging running game? What happened to that from well before his late 20s?
In the early 90s, under Cronin's coaching (37.5% better than Holbrook's and Hannay's 37% and Barrett's 32%), we were awful at times and came second-last. I remember watching the great Brett Kenny back then just before he retired (we came second last a few years back then) when he was turned in his 30s. Back then, I remember thinking even he seemed a lot slower than when I first saw him in 1980 and the genius in the great 81-83 run. Even Sterlo's once-dangerous step of a decade ago seemed slower.
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HOE, where you mentioned they were awaiting their fate. When Tupou scored to make it 22-18, there heads went straight down and they looked beaten, they still had 15mins left but it was as if they said "That's it, we're gone'. Ofahengaue was the one rallying them. It was not a good look.
I think confidence is a factor, maybe trust in each other of can it get done, trust in coaching staff that the plan can get them wins. But we have discussed mentality with this squad for years now, 2022 was the only year where we showed strong mentality and it was not til the end of the year. I still contend the motivation of heaps of players leaving was the factor in going that little extra, but we have been weak minded for a while. We are now at a point in our system where once you are used to losing, you find ways to lose more, you forget how to win and how to get there.
Them going for 2 with plenty of time left and the Roosters on the ropes showed their mentality was just to get the lead and work it out from there. Instead should have played on, giving them that break gave them time to flair up and get momentum back.
LB, excellent post. Confidence, belief & body language is a big thing (even in real life).
Non-verbals are telling. The body doesn't lie, easily. Hopefully, you're right and it's just a thing between the ears. For close to a decade, I've wanted someone like Bennett's Dr Jauncey.
What concerns me is the overall declining trends.
The gradual decline of the defence and over the last five years (when most of our players were closer to their peak years).
The fact we only lost one game (regular season) over four years when we were ahead at half-time. Now look at us.
Compare the overall declining trends to age factors (bulk of key players) and there is a correlation.
Of course, opinion only, but's it's based on reality too.
I was surprised they managed to get back into the game. You mention body language. After both of the Roosters firts 2 tries the poor body language and lack of communication behind the line looked terrible.
Old School Eel. Spot on.
The Eels remind me of an ageing boxer. Competitive for a good portion of the fight but suspectible to being knocked out due to ailing reflexes & fast twitch muscles. I love Deontay Wilder, but he's gone; slipped years ago. Fenech was great but gone by the late 20s.
Fitness think is major factor. Need a hard ass Billy Johnstone type of trainer to fix them.
start some old school weighted vests on them for training
Also definately attitude is at a all time low.
and aging roster doesnt help, most of our team eligible for their senior citizens cards soon
Shows that our bench isn't up to it.. Also our starts haven't been great so who knows
I have a theory, that would occasionaly raise its ugly head back in my sporting days during different years / teams.
I watch this team and i admit I dont have any confidence in the team as a whole to win a game of football, when I delve a bit deeper, what I dont have confidence in is our abilty to finish a movement or our ability to see a hole and take it. I find that this comes down to our outside backs.
In all honesty I have zero confidence in them. They lack Speed / skill levels / footy nouse " the ability to see the gap, the cause and effect of drawing and passing, the abilty to straighten the attack to stop defenders sliding etc in defence they dont have the ability or vision to know when to slide or come in or how to create room for those putside them. Hell even catching or putting the ball down over the try line is sometimes beyond them.
This - outside backs problem, I wonder if it leaves our forwards and our halves with the same lack of confidence, to compensate they go away from their strengths, they doubt the plays and feel they have to do it themselves, usually causing more errors and the look of a rag tag bunch with no plan.
Some examples have been Moses turning the ball inside a few times over last couple of weeks when the opposition had 12 men. The play was go wide, go around them. Could it be that they have no confidence consciously or sub consciously in our outside backs.
Further our edges are now trying to throw hail mary passes " Cartwright", Paulo instead of bending defence backwards and creating room out wide is turning his back offloading. Hell we even saw a passage of play on the redzone against the Roosters that involved 4 forwards passing to each other in a movement.
My honest opinion is nothing can change whilst our outside backs and possibly fullback and Hooker " different problems, guthos speed and Hands creativity", remain off the pace with speed, footy nouse and NRL skill levels to take advantage of scoring oppurtunities.
To me Gutho perhaps should be playing centre next year in this team, if we unearth a speedy capable decent fullback. I do wonder who the club feel is going to be the long term fullback. The rest of the outside backs maybe not Penisni need to be relegated to the Rouse Hill Rhinos 1st grade team.
Just my thoughts. We just dont have the cattle to capitalise on what Gutho / Moses / Brown and our forward pack present to our so called finishers. - And as a result our good to great players are trending away from game plans thinking they have to do it all themselves.
To me its like we are playing footy with one arm tied behind our back. Its inevitable that our heads go down when we are behind. I wonder if we dont believe in the current makeup of the team, that we have the 13 players to win at NRL level.
Great point, Bluey. I think you're right. Ultimately, you'd want what the Panthers have. Well-honed structures and the ability to play unstructured eyes-up, high-IQ footy outside the structures. We nned more of both in a sense plus speed.
The Panthers can plug in Dogs' reject Alamoti or the reasonable ex-Tiger Gardiner and they still function well, winning most of the time. They'd probably look like plodders in our lineup. How long have they been without Cleary? Kikau? Api? Burton? Chrichton and a bevy of their grand final squads.
This is exactly what I think as well. The outside backs are so poor that the inside men feel they need to do what is needed. Hell when Sivo plays he is the only one they tend to go to, thus scoring 80% + of our tries.
Having Simmo on the other side gave them a bit of hope they could swing it that way as well but now he's gone we have ...
Another great write-up & effort, HOE.
Those second half stats you Daz have shown are very concerning. As are the pyramid defensive results.
As LB said though, I do wonder how much of the second halves could be confidence related? Hard to guage, I know. But no doubt, we need some youth injected into the engine room. A good mix of youth & experience.
Kelma Tualagi is a good start, he's looked great given a genuine opportunity under Barrett, imo.
Probably need another edge & middle forward yet? Or are you concerned far more turnover will be required?
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