Had you said to most Eels fans - would you take 2 wins and 2 losses in a draw that included Roosters, Manly, Penrith and Warriors, I think there would have been few who wouldn't have jumped out of their seat to accept the offer.
As such it's fair to say, the Eels have had a promising start to the year. Indeed, the biggest disappointment at this point is that we lost a very winnable match and subsequently aren't joint-top of the ladder.
So let's take a look at where we're at, four games in and what we might perhaps hope for the rest of the year.
(tldr version: we're going pretty good, but we could turn into an exceptional unit)
Coach
While there were some promising pre-seasons signs that Brad Arthur was fitting in well at the Eels, four games in, there aren't many Blue and Gold supporters who aren't delighted at the job that Arthur has done to date. The results are good, but the attitude has been refreshing too. It's clear that Arthur has high expectations, is very 'team'-oriented and has been successful at melding together a tight-knit group. Last match, he alleviated some concerns that some supporters had about his selections, and where some saw madness, there appeared some method to his thinking. At this point, it's not hard to think the club pulled the right rein in bringing Arthur into the club and he looks like he could be the Eel's first long-term coach since Brian Smith. Maybe, there are few questions left to be answered about tactical nous but let's break that into two considerations
Attack
The highlight of Parramatta's attack has been their ability to score tries from anywhere on the field. The Eels have more than their share of individual brilliance in the side and currently look just as dangerous if not more dangerous attacking outside the 20, than in it. Within the 20, the Eels have still looked a little disorganised and sometimes short of ideas. If the ball goes right, the responsibility for a big play invariably comes from Hayne and if it goes left, we'll likely play for Tonga to create space Radradra. Where we're still lacking in attack inside the 20, is getting a lot of numbers making runs off the playmaker and then our halves picking the right ball to put a player through a hole or one-on-one. If Parramatta can improve in this area, and that basically comes down to their halves building some combinations and then making some good plays, we could develop into a pretty lethal attacking outfit that is capable of putting points on even the better defences.
Defence
No doubt, Parramatta's defence has improved. Admittedly, the benchmark was low. However, Brad Arthur will still not be satisfied with the occasional mis-reads his players are making. The Eels look like they will defend pretty stiffly when they know who they're tackling and it's a matter of effort in the tackle, and that's greatly improved. However, teams that excel at forcing opposition defences to make decisions still look like they can trouble Parramatta's defence. That was highlighted with the big Roosters win, where the Eels just had no clue as to what runner to focus on and leaked like a sieve. That aspect of their defence will no doubt get better as some of the new boys get used to each other and addressing defensive issues is Brad Arthur's forte. We've already seen even week-to-week improvement in Parramatta's wrestle and their competitiveness in the ruck battle. What remains to be seen is how Chris Sandow's defence will hold up on an ongoing basis. Increasingly, teams will go back to increasingly targetting the little half-back and we've not yet proven that won't cause our entire defensive structure to fall to pieces as was the case last year. The other aspect of our defence that must improve is discipline. We simply give away too many penalties and given the counts we've had this year, it's something of a miracle we've managed to be as successful as we have.
Jarryd Hayne
Last week's second half should give all Eels fan cause for excitement. It was Jarryd Hayne at something close to his best. What impressed me most, was that it was composed. Jarryd seemed confident and un-flustered with the ball. He looked like the same player we see in rep matches. I feel Jarryd's game has suffered from a burden of feeling like he needed to make every play in the past, but there's enough skill on the park (and particularly with Hopoate on his outside) that Hayne likely feels less pressure to make something every time he touches the ball. I think we stand a pretty good chance of seeing Hayne hit a purple-patch of form, the likes we haven't seen since 2009. If that happens, Parramatta will make the eight.
Outside Backs
I think we're extremely well-placed with out outside backs. We have two quality centres, who are both playing well but have room for improvement. Semi Radradra has been a revelation and Ken Sio is going to have a lot of success playing outside the Hayne/Hopoate show. We've got backup in the likes of Morgan and Toutai. Bureta Faraimo has been excelling for Wentworthville and John Folau is going to press his claims from NYC. Certainly, the pain of having to blood youngsters in recent years is paying dividends this year.
Halves
It's this factor that is going to decide just how high up the ladder the Eels can finish. Sandow and Norman have a history of producing great, but not always consistent football and Parramatta needs to extract some stability and quality decision making from their six and seven. These two on their day can match any halves combination in the competition but we're yet to see either really fulfill their potential. It's early days for Norman and some of the signs have been good. I would like to see him attacking the ball at pace and using his running game more, as the more guarded opposition teams are against him going himself the more space it will open up for our classy outside backs. Chris Sandow needs to more consistently put his supports through holes. Both these players have very high ceilings in terms of their talent ability, it's just a matter of how close they can get this year.
Back-rowers
For me, this was the big question mark hanging over the side. We again looked to be short of firepower on the fringes - an essential ingredient of any successful modern-day football team. All we had was a couple of old-timers, a few promising kids and a couple of promising blokes from Wenty.
Well, those Wenty blokes - Mau and Edwards - certainly stepped up to the plate, took their opportunities with both hands and smashed it. Both show a hunger we've not had in our pack for quite a while and their running is fearless.
I'm excited about Pauli Pauli. He showed enough last week to suggest he's going to be very successful at NRL level and that Arthur is going to let him use his skill. He's going to add a lot to our attack on the fringes.
Not as much to get excited about from the established back-rowers. Ben Smith was unremarkable and I would see his role this year will be to serve as a handy back-up when we have injuries. Joseph Paulo really now has to concentrate on playing as a forward first and put his playmaking kit in the bag. With Sandow in for Kelly, we have enough ballskills in the squad. He needs to focus on running hard and straight, and then once or twice a game, using his skills for an unexpected short-pass or piece of creativity. We'll see more of Kelepi later in the season and of course Loko still to come. I still believe Loko could be a squad-maker.
Front-rowers
Our middle forwards have done their job. They don't have the big boppers who is going to crash through opposition defences, leaving wreckage in their wake. However, Roosters-game aside they have ensured that a few highly-rated opposition packs haven't dominated, and for the last couple of games they've done that without arguably our best middle forward, in Darcy Lussick. This is pretty much what we need from these blokes week-in, week-out. They have to ensure our attacking players get an even opportunity to demonstrate their skills. These blokes will be consistently under-appreciated because they don't dominate oppositions but they'll do the job that their coach asks of them. I'm looking forward to Junior Paulo getting his shot because I think he can add an extra dimension and we have of course yet to see what Mossop is capable of.
Nathan Peats
Arguably, the best to last. There isn't a hooker going any better. Good service, makes intelligent runs and his defence is terrific. That's key to helping his middle forwards hold their line. When big props have little men to run at, it can be very hard to stop opposition front rowers getting over the advantage line - we don't have any weakness in the middle which is the foundation for a strong defence. His will-to-win just seems to permeate the team and he's taken hostage of that number nine jersey for the foreseeable future.
Summary
When I was asked how I thought the Eels would go this year, I invariably told people it was impossible to know - there were just too many ifs and buts and unanswered questions. So far, all of the cards seem to be falling in the right place. That may be good luck, good planning but I think it's got a lot to do with what Brad Arthur is doing - he's getting the best out of people. We've been lucky to have no major injuries to date, and we still have a couple of players who can strengthen the side if they can force their way into the side. A finals spot is certainly not a pipedream, but as I say a lot is going to come down to just how much improvement Arthur can get out of his halves combination.
Replies
If we can cut down on our penalties and keep the enthusiasm in attack and defence then we will win a lot more games.
He did touch on our discipline.
I was just thinking today that if Hayne finds a purple patch of form like his second half suggested he could, that we are a shot at the 8.
Agreed discipline needs improving which I'm sure the coach has plenty to say about but not yet getting thru & bit disappointed by Norman who I thought would be more dominant.
Phil, what is your current opinion on Hayne to five-eighth. Are you still of the belief he should move there? I always thought he should stay at fullback. The last game against Panthers I thought that he would actually make a killer 5/8...
I'm not sure. My primary reason for wanting Hayne at fullback, and I said this time and time again, was because it was what was best for the team and not what was best for Hayne. Right now, I have no doubt that Hayne is a better fullback because he doesn't have the composure you want from a five-eighth. I think that little stint he had playing six last year has probably done him a world of good because I think he got a little more comfortable directing traffic.
If Sandow can hold up his end in defence and keeps his place in the time, I think the spine we have is the best on offer and as such I'd have Hayne at fullback too. I'm reserving judgement on Sandow because I don't think he's been worked over in defence yet. I remain of the opinion that if the only other option is Kelly in the halves, then I'd rather see Hayne there as no-way do we challenge for the eight with Kelly/Norman.
But it was really exciting to see how comfortable Hayne looked out there. Maybe as Sandow's contract runs out, Hayne becomes ready to step into the halves?
It was a game in mid-late 2010, ironically also against Penrith, where he scored an 80 m try and set up about 3 others in which I knew Hayne 'could' make a great 5/8. Seems he doesn't want to be a great 5/8. His heart is at Fullback, so let's keep him there....for now. Besides, Norman is showing.....promise.
2 from 4 is funkin' good, especially when you consider that we played 3 of them with Luke Kelly.
I think our Defence has improved more then it appears.I could be wrong (haven't check the stats) but I would think that the average points in games this year is up on last year.With the speed of the game having increased this has therefore meant more points and means we have actually improved even more then it seems