"My Mama Always Said Life Was Like A Box Of Chocolates. You Never Know What You're Gonna Get", so said Tom Hanks' character in Forest Gump.
Forest's Mama could have been describing the Eels, week to week, half to half. And we have a pretty big box of chocolate courtesy of Sybil's, consistently inconsistent, multiple personalities.
However, last week's demolition of the Panthers, the best team in the competition, emphasized once again what the Eels are capable of when they are on and play with passion and commitment; although helped by a Cleary brain-snap making it 12 men against 13.
Meanwhile, Manly's close 10-20 loss against a desperate Roosters outfit missing "The Seven" protesting first graders showed they may not be willing to surrender and die yet - despite some internal divisions and socio-politico-religo drama arising out of last week's rainbow jersey saga.
And perhaps, the Eels have their own saga this week, with the re-emergence of Brad Arthur's son back in the seven jersey, following Moses' untimely injury.
Manly is desperate to win, or face the potential of a four-point gap between the two teams immediately above them on the ladder, the Raiders (9th) and the Roosters (8th), coupled with Manly's +8 points differential suffering further downward pressure.
Their entire season is on the line. In front of their own tribe.
Fasten your seatbelts, ladies and gentlemen. Nail everything you can to the floor. It could be one hell of a ride.
Teams
Friday 7:55pm, 5 August 2022, 4 Pines Park, Brookvale
Referee: Gerard Sutton. Under him, the Eels win 39.5% overall, winning the last 2 of 7. Manly win 57.5% overall, winning the last 5 of 7.
Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake (150th game) 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson
Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore
Reserves: 18. Ofahiki Ogden 19. Hayze Perham 20. Brendan Hands 21. Sean Russell 22. Elie El Zakhem
Changes: Jakob Arthur in, Mitchell Moses out
Head Coach: Father Arthur
Silvertails
1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Morgan Harper 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Toafofoa Sipley 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Andrew Davey 13. Jake Trbojevic
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Martin Taupau 17. Morgan Boyle
Reserves: 18. Josh Schuster 19. Ethan Bullemor 20. Kurt De Luis 21. Kaeo Weekes 22. Brad Parker
Head Coach: Des Mahatma Hasler.
Though winning the last encounter at Commbank 22-20 in round 11, the Eels have only won 1 from the last 4 against Manly.
Moses' boot was the difference in the last encounter, at 4 tries a piece with the Eels scoring in the dying minutes to level the score before Moses iced the sideline conversion to win the game.
Arthur confirmed that young Jakob will be halfback, to replace Moses who underwent finger surgery - dispelling rumours of a Gutho switcheroo and mysterious sternum issues for the youngster. Arthur also admitted that his son had not been given any "special treatment", nor treated more harshly than any other player conceding it wasn't easy to resist his natural inclination to be tougher on his own son than other players.
Despite Jakob not having spectacular success when playing in the halves for the full game (scoring less and conceding more per game than our 2018 spoon team) - chances are the only way is up.
The Eels are likely to need to win at least 2 from 5 to be safe. And if they only win 1 from the next 4 (to use Jakob's record as a guide), that might mean a finals appearance could come down to a high-pressure final-round encounter with the Storm. Scraping in by our fingernails might not be an ideal confidence boost.
Additionally, congratulations to Waqa Blake on his 150th milestone. With some sense of synchronicity, Gutherson's 150th game was also against Manly in the round 11 win 22-20.
Against the Eels, Garrick has scored 9 tries in 7 games against the Eels the equal highest of any club (with Titans). He also has two hat-tricks against the Eels; the only club he has two hat-tricks against. If he scores another 10 points it will be the first team he has scored 100 points against. He's never lost to the Eels at Brookvale either (2/2, in 2019-2020).
Sivo is the try-scoring king of Commbank, but he hasn't scored a try against the Silvertails - for almost three years - since 2019 when he scored a hat-trick at Commbank (R25, 2019). He only has 1 try at Brookvale (R18, 2019). It was back in the days we had cheerleaders. He gets his opportunity here as Manly's right edge is even worse than the Eels (conceding 39 tries to 35 tries). Manly's middle also concedes more tries than the Eels (16 v 12).
However, the Eels left edge concedes (36%, 27 tries) considerably more than Manly's (24%, 17 tries). Olakau’atu alert.
There also Schuster. He caused us a myriad of troubles last time down our right edge - if Foran and DCE on either side wasn't enough. He's a great 18th man, even better 19th man.
Refer to more details on how they "exposed our fatal flaws", here.
Edge, middle stats are from Statsinsider.
Friday nights
The Eels have won the last 5 straight Friday night games against Manly over the last 9 years, since 2014 when Arthur took the reigns.
But none of those Friday nights were at 4 Pines Park, Brookvale.
The Eels lost the last two-straight Friday nights to Manly here (2007, 2008) and haven't won on a Friday night here at Brookvale since the last century (R4,1998).
Brookvale is unkind
This year, as Commbank we win 6/8 (75%) scoring 28ppg - 21.9ppg. Outside Commbank we win 6/11 (54.5%) and concede more than we score with an average of 21 ppg - 23.1 ppg.
Of the games the Eels have played at Brookvale since 2014 when Arthur took the reigns, 6 of 7 have been decided by 12 points or less. There has only been one blowout since then (0-54 in 2018).
So, it is more likely than not to be a close game.
Also, the overall attacking and defensive stats between the two teams in 2022 are relatively close as well. The Eels have a better attack (7th v 8th; scoring 23.4ppg v 22.4ppg) and only slightly worse defence (10th v 9th; conceding 21.9ppg v 21.4ppg).
Vignettes from half-way
Despite the loss of superstar Tom Trbovejic in round 11, Manly has not fallen into a heap - and actually improved, incredibly - from the mid-way mark from round 13 to round 20. Not so, the Eels.
Here is what the ladder would look like if it were from round 13 to round 20.
Since the mid-way mark, Manly have out-performed the Eels statistically.
Manly have had a much better attacking average (2nd after the Cowboys, at 27.71 ppg) than the Eels (equal 10th with the struggling Storm; at 20.86 ppg).
They also have been much better defensively (4th, conceding 18 ppg) than the Eels (11th, 23.43 ppg) conceding more points than it did in 2018 overall (22.91 ppg).
Hence, that big win over the Panthers, the best team in the competition all year, might be the kick-start the Eels need. It was the Eels biggest win over the Panthers in 13 years (since 2009), and the Panthers' worst loss since R20, 2021 (10-37 to the Storm).
However, the fact the Panthers won the second half 6-4 with 12 men against 13 has raised other lingering concerns.
Lacking Killer instinct?
Andrew Johns and Cameron Smith were both somewhat disappointed with the Eels second half and suggested the Eels lack killer instinct - and should have put the Panthers to the sword more after amassing a huge 30-4 half-time lead. The Eels failed to register a single point from the 34' to the 77' minute.
Last year in numerous reviews we also pointed out the Eels lacked killer instinct, and it appears to still be the case. It also has some correlation to the perennial "flat-track bully" moniker that the Eels need things to go their way and can implode and struggle when they're up against it.
Whilst the Eels might struggle to put teams to the sword regularly but have the ability to lose by big margins (Dogs, Cowboya, Broncos).
This season overall, the Eels lose on average by a 15.9 point margin - the worst of all top eight teams and the third worst (14th) in the competition. Only the Knights and Dragons lose by a higher average margin. Manly's 15.2 point margin is only marginally better; fourth worst (13th).
The Eels win on average by a 12.4 point margin - the worst of all top eight teams (and 11th). Only the Raiders, Dragons, Warriors, Titans, Tigers are worse. Manly fair better here, winning on average by an 17.8 point margin (4th best). Only behind the Panthers, Cowboys, and Storm.
Bottom Line
Both teams are at the crossroads. Both teams have had their defensive struggles and tend to be vulnerable on the edges.
If history is any guide and both teams are on, this could be a close game, favouring the Silvertails at Brookvale. The game might come down to which team can score the most points - putting the Eels at a distinct disadvantage with the loss of Moses. In the four games the Eels have played with Jakob at half (in 2021) when Moses was out, the Eels scored an average of 10.5ppg winning 1 from 4.
Dylan Brown, Reed Mahoney, and Gutherson need to step up to make up for the loss of Moses - as will Jakob. And the Eels will need to win the explosive forward battle in the middle decisively (even when the bench comes in) or risk getting exposed defensively.
They may not have the points to play much catch-up if the Silvertails gain a decent lead.
Notably, the Eels have conceded the first try in 10 of the last 12 games - which includes in each of their past six away games. The Eels also tend to leak points either side of half-time and in the dying 10 more often than not.
A lot rides on how Manly will respond to the divisive "rainbow jersey" saga with The Big Seven back? Will they continue to fight as One?
With their season on the line and some quality leadership in Manly diehards like DCE, Jake Trbovejic, and the well-heeled veteran Foran one suspects they should. Along with the wily Hasler, the Mad Professor, have the class, experience and nous to outwit us and expose our vulnerabilities - as they did on numerous occasions in the close round 11 clash when we had a stronger spine without Jakob. No doubt they'll target him.
The Eels keep talking about addressing their inconsistency - Reed Mahoney again pointing it out again in the captain's run - but it's time to make good on that. They've been regressing.
Will last week's big win over the reigning premiers be the shot in the arm they need to gain some genuine confidence, belief and momentum at a critical juncture? And can they overcome Moses' absence for a few weeks; with Jakob sitting in the general's seat? Or will the Eels revert back to their normal on-off habits? Being a Friday night will help.
The next three to four weeks without Moses are likely to be season-defining; make or break. Perhaps, for all the Arthurs as well.
Make us Proud.
Replies
Incredible blog mate, thanks for your huge efforts with this, you and daz, best previews on the net.
Two words, Gerard Sutton, absolute imbecile, one of the worst refs going who always gives us a hard time, he subconciously doesnt like us and it shows with his calls.
Ive got a real bad feeling about this game, DCE and Foz will dominate our halves and dictate the game, its at brookie, they need the win and are coming off the dramas of the gay jersey, they are primed for a big one.
Manly 32
Eels 12
All i can say HOE is WOW . The effort you put into your blogs is truly outstanding. Mate i am seriously very concerned about this game and just not because Mitch Moses is not there and young Jake is. Ive just feel Manly at Brooky will be up there for this plus our inconsistency will be a big factor in the result . This is where the rest of our boys must stand up and be counted if they want to win this game and continue to fight for this allusive premiership. Plus what You and Snaky have said about Mr Sutton is spot on and also does not feed me with confidence with the out come of this game . In closing I'll just say come on boys show the Bastards what the Eels are really made of . Just my humble two Bobs worth
Thanks a lot, Hector. That's too kind, mate. With you. Let's show the bastards! I do expect Manly to be all guns blazing, so we're going to need a special performance to pull through.
Way too kind, Snake. Agree mate, Sutton is a worry. Horrible record 39.5% win ratio. You might be onto something; it could be subconscious.
He's also got one of those mean looking downward-pointing, eagle beaks. Lol
Oddly enough, we've won all our games v Manly (2/2) under him (2014, 2019) but both at home Piretek/Commbank.
There was a study years ago that showed NRL refs gave some advantage to the home team. Can't recall the specifics it might be something like giving away an 55%-45% more penalties to the home team or whatever.
Sometimes, I get the feeling refs start to give away penalties to even the ledger - at least subconscious if not to avoid appearing overtly biased.
We seem to go through winning and losing cycles with him - but more losing. Lose 8 straight, them win 2-5 straight, repeat.
We're in a losing cycle and away. Not good omens.
Great work HOE and some poignant comments made here.
The game is really in our hands to be honest. On our best day we are there for a win, but on the other days its a bad loss. For me if we are not up to this semi final type football now then we may as well head to Bali for the end of season meet up.
I for one think if all the players play to their ability we can def win this, as Manly with Tom out are also hurting, but they've done well without him.
A win for us and we can catapult into the semis and a bad loss and we are back to the previous weeks, its up to the players and coaches here. JA just needs to do the simple things well and allow Mahoney and DB and Guth to lead. Forwards just need to aim up and muscle up for the game.
Our bench have to make some impact...Manly are there for the picking.
Thanks Mitchy. That's my thinking too, buddy. Jakob needs to be Simple Simon. Run hard, run direct (no sloth-like cross country marathons), tackle hard, kick to the seagulls. Let the more skilled do their thing in attack - Dylan, Reed, Gutho and our offloading forwards Lane, Ice, Matto, Paolo - without getting in the way or slowing the cogs.
We play the power game (high run metres) but it's compromised by the metres we concede, our bench, and defensive vulnerabilities we have.
So, we can't afford to miss opportunities or we're probably goneski. And we tend to implode playing catch-up, even with Moses.
Good work mate. You mention the smarts with Hasler,Foran and DCE against us and our smarts which I don't rate very highly in how we generally play.
l did notice McGregor at half time very active , enthused and excited in the dress sheds at half time last week. He was walking around to different players and talking to them. Looked great to me. Hopefully his inputs may start to help
I think this is a game where we should focus on concentrating on being smarter than our opponents. I would desperately like to see some player positional movements to counter our loss with Moses An opportunity for some creative thinking which can also be a motivator rather than some old same I think it was NOS who mentioned that the brain is a muscle as well. A good test to overcome Sybil
TAD, Thanks brother. I agree. I liked that as well. Mary doing that to the boys individually in the sheds last week.
Not sure we can outwit them, though. Think, if Jakob can stay out the way - not slow the cogs - and we play direct, very physical, and in the faces of DCE and Foran all night, and to our strengths, with second phase play, we might stand a chance.
If we get off to a bad start it might be almost the kiss of death.
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