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NRL 2022: Parramatta Eels, Brad Arthur’s horror record against easybeats exposed
Victories against premiership heavyweights Penrith and Melbourne has overshadowed the Eels horror record against the NRL’s cellar dwellers. We reveal the shock stats.
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Parramatta has officially taken on the unwanted crown as the No.1 team for losing games it is expected to win – and, worryingly, the trend is getting worse.
Despite being among the best backed teams in TAB premiership betting, the Eels’ hopes of ending that longest of NRL title droughts has suddenly become a hot discussion topic following shock losses to Canterbury and Wests Tigers.
Since 2019, the Eels have lost six times to sides who were in the bottom four at the time of playing.
According to Fox Sports Lab, that record is the worst of any NRL side that, at the same time, sat inside the top eight.
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In 2020, the Eels also dropped a game against Manly, who would go on to finish bottom four — taking their overall tally to seven — and also lost to St George Illawarra, who finished 12th.
For comparison, Melbourne have lost just once to a bottom four side over the same period, while reigning premiers Penrith have dropped just two games.
Worse for Parramatta coach Brad Arthur, numbers crunched by the TAB reveal his side has already lost five times this year as the betting favourite, which is up from four last year and three in 2020.
Those upsets have come against Cronulla, Wests Tigers, North Queensland, the Roosters and Bulldogs.
Against the Tigers, Parramatta were $1.07 favourites. Then against Canterbury last start, they were $1.10.
Both results sit within the three biggest betting upsets suffered by the club since 2000.
On the flip side, however, the Eels have beaten both Melbourne and Penrith as underdogs to arrive at Saturday’s home clash against the Roosters still sitting in sixth spot.
Quizzed on rugby league’s most erratic team, revered Australian performance psychologist Phil Jauncey suggested the Eels were a side that, at times, appeared too focused on the idea of winning and losing rather than would should be every side’s main goal — execution.
Based out of Queensland, Jauncey has spent 30 years working with some of the nation’s most successful sporting sides including the Brisbane Broncos, Australian cricket team, Queensland Origin side, Brisbane Lions and countless Olympians.
So what advice would he give to the Eels?
“Watching from afar, it appears when Parramatta play a team they’re expected to beat, everything becomes about winning and losing,” Jauncey said.
“It’s all about ‘we should win this’ or ‘we have to win this’.
“But the focus shouldn’t be on winning. The focus should be on executing.
“Having worked with the likes of Wayne Bennett, John Buchanan and Leigh Matthews, when they did a review after games you couldn’t tell if the side had won or lost.
“It was all about ‘how did we execute?’.
“But with Parramatta, they’re thinking ‘we can’t lose’.”
Jauncey likened the Eels’ erratic form, which is increasingly being discussed, to that of sides with a hoodoo ground or opponent.
“Because the players think, ‘we have to win’,” he said.
“They focus on the aim, forgetting about what you have to do to get there.
“So instead of going out to win games, Parramatta should be concentrating on how they execute when they do the most damage to opponents.”
Conversely, Jauncey also suggested similar traits could be seen in the Bulldogs’ improved form since coach Trent Barrett walked away from the club.
Over the first half of the 2022 season, all the talk at Canterbury centred around the club’s need to win games for Barrett, who was under mounting pressure to keep his job.
“And so the players start focusing on winning,” Jauncey said.
“But then (when Barrett departs) the players just go back to executing.
“This is why younger teams do well, like with those Baby Broncos a few years ago. That group wasn’t worried about winning because nobody expected them to, so they just went out and executed.
“It’s also why you often see teams, like Penrith, win its second grand final appearance.
“First time into a decider, you’re worried about losing.
“By the second one, however, you’re only focused on executing … and you succeed.”
While the Eels may have already been written off, or at least seriously questioned, as premiership contenders by many experts, they remain well backed among punters.
“The Eels haven’t been the most trustworthy side to follow for punters this season,” TAB executive Rohan Welsh conceded.
“Winning when you shouldn’t is one thing, but losing to sides they should be putting up big scores against is another.
“Yet despite all this they’re still one of the best supported teams in the competition.
“Already this weekend, they’re holding 65 per cent of the market against the Roosters who they’ve already lost to this year.
“They’re also the third best backed side in the TAB premiership market — behind Penrith and Melbourne – while for the grand final quinella, Penrith versus Parramatta is the second-best option.”
Still, the Eels erratic form is the worst of any top eight team since 2019.
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Next worst is the Roosters (5), followed by St George Illawarra, Cronulla, Manly and South Sydney, all on four games.
Replies
Great assessment by the sports psychologist.
Yeah never thought of it that. Go in thinking we are better than everyone and we will win it will come to us, you forget execution as you think it will come, then before they realise it is too late.
Didn't we bring in a psychologist to fix our mental lapses last year or the year before? Why didn't he say the same thing?
He's a smart man, he was my psychology professor when I went to university.
Jauncey may have a good point, but to be fair he admitted he is looking from afar.
I dont think its as simple in our case as just execution, or the way we see winning or losing, i think its more to do with attitude, its clear we turn up not willing to do the hard stuff.
We tend to play as good as our oppositions standard, we lack high standards and consistancy.
Instead of being ruthless we play down to the oppositions level, we lack killer instinct.
One of the big reasons is because theres no accountability, guys can have a shocker or be in shit form but BA wont drop them, so theres nothing stopping them having more poor games.
The guys on the edge of selection know this too, they hardly ever get a go even when the 1st grade guys infront of them are playing shit.
This type of stuff effects a teams moral imo.
This creates a stagnant energy in the team sometimes, there needs to be more flow with players to get that synergy right, there needs to be more accountability.
Most of what you have mentioned falls under the execution umbrella, they are not executing to the standards needed and we are capable of.
The lack of leadership and accountability is another big part of our mindset, put it all together and you have the Parramatta eels.
To be able to execute right, you gotta turn up with the right attitude, the attitude comes before the execution, the attitude is your foundations the execution is built upon.
Well yeah Snake, you need the attitude to be patient with execusion.
LB what do you teach at school?
LB wont mind me answering for him, he specialises and teaches advanced sexual education.
At an all boys school.
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