Chiefy asked me to do something along these lines, and I couldn't resist his charms for once. I will list here under a starting point and update it as the week goes on.
Getty Images: Al Riffa is one of the favorites will make his Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup, but is heavily weighted, and can he adapt immediately to the firmer and faster Australian conditions over softer Irish grounds like his trainer and team have done for other Melbourne Cup winners?
Current Market
As of Tuesday 28/10
$6.....8.50 Al Riffa: trained in Ireland by Joesph O'Brien (son of the legendary Aidan O'Brien) who interestingly he has won the Melb Cup twice with Australian debutants (Rekindling 2017, Twilight Payment 2020); a third time lucky charm?
$6.....$6 Half Yours: winner of the Caulfield Cup and trained in Australia by the McEvoy team. I rate would him a top four
$7 ....$7.50 Valiant KIng: slashing second in the Caulfield Cup trained by Australia's leading and Great Trainer Chris Waller
$8......$9 Buckeroo: 2nd to Via Vistina in last Saturdays Cox Plate and also trained by Chris Waller
$9..... $8 Preage Nocturne
$13....$19 Maydaan .....easy in the market but James Mcdonald is the jockey
Additions from 1EE posters.
Absurde $21
Vauban $26
Flatten the curve $34
River of Stars $17
Final field of 24......
My Early Tips
Box the first 4 in that betting order with a view of getting the Trifecta. Your outlay will be $24 to achieve this for a 100% return $6 will return you 25% if you want just a small flutter.
Update: No 1: 7.30 summer time 28/10/25; Include Absurde and Vauban
MY Updated bets at this point in time are
First 4 First Alriffa no 1, Meydaan No 8, Half Yours No 14
Second.... same , 1,8,14 plus Presage Nocturne no 6, Valiant King No 24
Third ..... same,1,8,14,6, 24
Fourth ......same ,1,8,14,6, 24 plus Absurde no 9,Buckaroo no 2, Vauban no 4, River of Stars No 21
I will go away and work out the cost of that? and update it.
OK First 4 for $100 will give you a 46% return .......recommend $54 for 25%
Trifecta which includes adding the 3rd and 4th tips into a combined 3rd Placing will give you a return of 119% recommend $42 for 50%.
i have personally placed the recommended bets to put my money where my mouth is.
.........if someone would like to check my calculaions.....the prices came from Ladbrokes when I placed them.
Late Specials for the GIRLS .... No 5 Chevalier Rose and No 20 being Goodie Two Shoes
The girls in this case are /is my Wife and Dog with my Wife delighted to be called a GIRL
UPdated again 3/11/25 at 4.26pm
Some Exacta's to go with the other exotics
Boxed No's 1,2,6,14,15,21,24 7 Horses to rub 1st or 2nd in any order. I had $100 on it giving me 2.6 times the winning dividend.
Alreffa, Buckeroo, Presage Nocturne, Half Yours, More Felons, River of Stars, Valiant King
This maybe the final updatem the track is currently a soft 7.
Wait
On race day there will be 24 starters subject to late scratcings. The field will be finalised on Saturday night and you will have all your SWEEP information when you wake up Sunday Morning.
I might add that this blog is live, anyone and everyone can put their 2 bobs worth or ask any questions. This information could be completely different by the close of Saturdays Race Meetings, so DO NOT commit to anything yet.
Replies
Special TAB offer tomorrow at 2pm AEDT
They have had this twice already and both times got up for good pay outs.
They offered special odds for Half Yours in the Melb cup at $15 instead of $8 then yesterday offered $10 instead of $3 for Point Barrow in the Red Rose Stakes.
You have to be quick before it runs out but you won't get close to the odds offered. They also limit how much you can put on, but easy way to have good value bet if don't follow the form.
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