Chiefy asked me to do something along these lines, and I couldn't resist his charms for once. I will list here under a starting point and update it as the week goes on.
Getty Images: Al Riffa is one of the favorites will make his Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup, but is heavily weighted, and can he adapt immediately to the firmer and faster Australian conditions over softer Irish grounds like his trainer and team have done for other Melbourne Cup winners?
Current Market
As of Tuesday 28/10
$6.....8.50 Al Riffa: trained in Ireland by Joesph O'Brien (son of the legendary Aidan O'Brien) who interestingly he has won the Melb Cup twice with Australian debutants (Rekindling 2017, Twilight Payment 2020); a third time lucky charm?
$6.....$6 Half Yours: winner of the Caulfield Cup and trained in Australia by the McEvoy team. I rate would him a top four
$7 ....$7.50 Valiant KIng: slashing second in the Caulfield Cup trained by Australia's leading and Great Trainer Chris Waller
$8......$9 Buckeroo: 2nd to Via Vistina in last Saturdays Cox Plate and also trained by Chris Waller
$9..... $8 Preage Nocturne
$13....$19 Maydaan .....easy in the market but James Mcdonald is the jockey
Additions from 1EE posters.
Absurde $21
Vauban $26
Flatten the curve $34
River of Stars $17
Final field of 24......
My Early Tips
Box the first 4 in that betting order with a view of getting the Trifecta. Your outlay will be $24 to achieve this for a 100% return $6 will return you 25% if you want just a small flutter.
Update: No 1: 7.30 summer time 28/10/25; Include Absurde and Vauban
MY Updated bets at this point in time are
First 4 First Alriffa no 1, Meydaan No 8, Half Yours No 14
Second.... same , 1,8,14 plus Presage Nocturne no 6, Valiant King No 24
Third ..... same,1,8,14,6, 24
Fourth ......same ,1,8,14,6, 24 plus Absurde no 9,Buckaroo no 2, Vauban no 4, River of Stars No 21
I will go away and work out the cost of that? and update it.
OK First 4 for $100 will give you a 46% return .......recommend $54 for 25%
Trifecta which includes adding the 3rd and 4th tips into a combined 3rd Placing will give you a return of 119% recommend $42 for 50%.
i have personally placed the recommended bets to put my money where my mouth is.
.........if someone would like to check my calculaions.....the prices came from Ladbrokes when I placed them.
Late Specials for the GIRLS .... No 5 Chevalier Rose and No 20 being Goodie Two Shoes
The girls in this case are /is my Wife and Dog with my Wife delighted to be called a GIRL
UPdated again 3/11/25 at 4.26pm
Some Exacta's to go with the other exotics
Boxed No's 1,2,6,14,15,21,24 7 Horses to rub 1st or 2nd in any order. I had $100 on it giving me 2.6 times the winning dividend.
Alreffa, Buckeroo, Presage Nocturne, Half Yours, More Felons, River of Stars, Valiant King
This maybe the final updatem the track is currently a soft 7.
Wait
On race day there will be 24 starters subject to late scratcings. The field will be finalised on Saturday night and you will have all your SWEEP information when you wake up Sunday Morning.
I might add that this blog is live, anyone and everyone can put their 2 bobs worth or ask any questions. This information could be completely different by the close of Saturdays Race Meetings, so DO NOT commit to anything yet.
Replies
Wow the first 4 payout
Had half yours and number 21.
Only a dart board could tip the other two
I had exactly the same chief.
😭😭😭
Close bazza
fluked the 14 ...at 10 E/W ...Ill take it
Are you the only one here to turn a profit Greg or did also betting multi cancel out your winnings?
This blog is covered in the jizz of a thousand bookies
Thanks for the tips Poppa, appreciate you putting the ideas out there.
Same result as usual for me but good to try a different approach.
Thanks fellas and for every one's input...it was a worthwhile exercise and whilst Half Yours was well found, Goodie Two Shoes was one for the girls.
I enjoyed the process I hope you guys saw some benefit in the approach. Personally I backed Half Yours which meant I won on the race but the closest I could get to a exotic was First and Fourth. My wife's cousin was up from Sydney and she had the Quinella 5 times i.e $950 result for $5..... she bets once a year!!!!!
Good luck for next year!
Good job Poppa.
Personally I didn't think Half Yours would stay the 3200m and lets be honest it was a terrible preperation in horse racing terms, the horse had been up since January, it was almost like every race since about May was an afterthought but to his credit he was a mile too good.
Very interesting horse going forward, hopefully he stays healthy so he can fly the flag internationally for us.
Twas a good blog Poppa. Please send down a 4 pack of baked beans
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