Chiefy asked me to do something along these lines, and I couldn't resist his charms for once. I will list here under a starting point and update it as the week goes on.
Getty Images: Al Riffa is one of the favorites will make his Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup, but is heavily weighted, and can he adapt immediately to the firmer and faster Australian conditions over softer Irish grounds like his trainer and team have done for other Melbourne Cup winners?
Current Market
As of Tuesday 28/10
$6 Al Riffa: trained in Ireland by Joesph O'Brien (son of the legendary Aidan O'Brien) who interestingly he has won the Melb Cup twice with Australian debutants (Rekindling 2017, Twilight Payment 2020); a third time lucky charm?
$6 Half Yours: winner of the Caulfield Cup and trained in Australia by the McEvoy team. I rate would him a top four
$7 Valiant KIng: slashing second in the Caulfield Cup trained by Australia's leading and Great Trainer Chris Waller
$8 Buckeroo: 2nd to Via Vistina in last Saturdays Cox Plate and also trained by Chris Waller
$9 Preage Nocturne
$13 Maydaan
$15 plus Others. A field of 40 hopefuls are in contention at this point in time.
My Early Tips
Box the first 4 in that betting order with a view of getting the Trifecta. Your outlay will be $24 to achieve this for a 100% return $6 will return you 25% if you want just a small flutter.
Update: No 1: 7.30 summer time 28/10/25; Include Absurde and Vauban
Wait
On race day there will be 24 starters subject to late scratcings. The field will be finalised on Saturday night and you will have all your SWEEP information when you wake up Sunday Morning.
I might add that this blog is live, anyone and everyone can put their 2 bobs worth or ask any questions. This information could be completely different by the close of Saturdays Race Meetings, so DO NOT commit to anything yet.
Replies
Why do i have to educate you on everything outside of the drug rings Rudolph.
OK, if you had the first 4 in correct order for $1 and had it 25 times it would have meant that particular bet cost $25.
It is most likely Bup had various combinations with the winning result being 25 times the dividend if he boxed the 4 horses it would be $24 for that single bet times one! If he boxed them to win 25 times it would be $24 x 25 ....do the maths! $600, those numbers maybe a bit big for you!
More than likely he picked two horses to win, and 4 horses to run 2nd, 3rd and 4th,.......that would cost $8 a unit and $200 for 25 times.
if you had the first 4 in correct order for $1 and had it 25 times it would have meant that particular bet cost $25...derr
More than likely he picked two horses to win, and 4 horses to run 2nd, 3rd and 4th,.......that would cost $8 a unit and $200 for 25 times..,,so a unit must pay over $200 to put you in front?
I have a crack at first fours in the Cox plate my favorite race, the slipper I've been quite fortuitous in and the Melbourne cup because the pools are so large.
Youve got more of a chance winning a million on a first four in a Melbourne cup then you do lotto, you control your own destiny.
My uncle who was a group 1 winning trainer now a punter plays the odds .
For example the Cox plate he loads up on the favorite with half the money he's willing to bet on the race then spreads the rest out on 2/3 other runners at longer odds where if either of his runners get up he At least makes %150 of money wagered.
His bets are significant.
Needed Nepotism for first four 🥹
Valient King has had a nice prep and stormed home in his last two runs, including a 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. The extra 800m will do him good. He ran 13th last year, but seems to be ready this time around.
Then you have Vauban, could be the most talented horse there but goes missing in the big races. Blake Shinn recently said he believes he would be better on wider track, Flemington suits that.
Good point LB, wouldn't leave him (Vauban) out....the Waterhouse/ Bott connection is powerful.
Valient King is a real live chance, no question and he is going to run the distance....you know your horses LB,
I wish i knew more, my dad was an expert in horse racing. The mate he knew who had ownership in horse named "Written in the Stars" was trained by Waller. One day he asked my dad to watch the barrier trial and give thoughts on how the horse ran.
The next day he asked and my dad listed he needed blinkers as he was shy around traffic and tongue tie, plus a few others notes. He replied that Waller said the same exact thing as what he did.
I know a little to get by but i am glad you made this blog, i can get way more knowledge and people's understanding on certain horses. Bup knows his you know what.
Also, Waterhouse/Bott has been a strong tandom for nearly a decade. She always has been a wonderful trainer and from reports, could be wrong, absolutely lovely as a person. Other people may have experienced different but the accounts my dads mate has had with her it was all exceptional.
Agree here LB, I got on 5 seconds after the Caulfield. I got $18.
I love doing that, seeing a champion ride then going to the next big race straight after and trying to jump on a ridiculous price.
Don't worry about not knowing much about racing LB, it is a wonderful sport (for Kings) and they are wonderful animals, take your wife to the races and she will fall in love with the horses.....not just the stallions lol.
My personal view and I have owned Horses, Pacers and Greyhounds is never expect to win, just hope. My wife owned a horse that won by 7 lengths at Gympie and you would have sworn she won the lottery, it got beaten the next week when favourite, that's racing. I have never seen her so disappointed since the first time she saw me naked!
To finish the story.....my saying is the the more you think you know, the less you end up knowing!
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