Eels Blogs

It’s the fifth Magic Round at another packed out Suncorp with the largest crowds and biggest stage outside Origins and Grand Finals.

The Eels have won once during Magic Round. Storm have won twice.

The Eels won't fondly remember the first Magic Round against the Storm. A biblical hiding (R9, 2019, L64-10).

Both teams are still missing their premier halves (Moses, Hughes) and fullbacks (Papenhuyzen, Gutherson). And both are coming off round ten losses. The Eels lost 30-14 to the Broncos (below), while the storm lost a tight one 25-18 to the Sharks which included that controversial and almost outrageous sin-binning of Grant.

Another Eels loss. Their third straight loss, with only one win after R3 | Getty

The thirteenth-placed Eels, fast heading towards the bottom of the ladder, are staring at four-straight losses for the first time in almost three years (R19-22, 2021) and have been in a contagious losing rut.

Will Pensini’s (above) body language says it all.

But, that’s not a picture of him any time this year. That’s a Friday night, late July last year (R22). The Storm had just beaten up the Eels 46-16 at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. The last time these two met.

Moses and Gutherson played that night. But there were a few key outs then. Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Papy for the Storm. Dylan Brown and RCG for the Eels. So, I wonder whether the Eels will have another excuse for that hiding?

The Eels have been in a sharp decline since mid-2023 (after R17) conceding almost 30 per game on average since; 37 per game outside Commbank.

The Eels have only won once since round 3.

Meanwhile, the high-flying third-placed Storm have not lost back-to-back games in over a year (R2-3, 2023).

It’s highly likely we will see a highly-motivated Storm looking to hit back and cement their footing in the top-four. 

The Eels on a downward trajectory are also staring at three-straight losses against the Storm.

Teams

Time: Sunday, 4:05pm, May 19th 2024
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: Wyatt Raymond
Bunker: Gerard Sutton
Odds: Sportsbet Storm $1.26 to Eels $3.90 (the odds blew out slightly from $1.31-$3.50 earlier this week after the news Moses was out)

Storm: 

1. Sualauvi Faalogo 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Christian Welch 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Jack Howarth 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald 18. Grant Anderson 19. Joe Chan 20. Bronson Garlick 21. Dean Ieremia 22. Chris Lewis

Head Coach: Craig Fire-Breath Bellamy

Eels: 

1.Blaize Talagi 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Brendan Hands 19. Morgan Harper 20. Ethan Sanders 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Luca Moretti

Head Coach: Brad Were-Still-Not-Far Arthur

If the Eels’ kicking game and kick chase isn’t up to scratch: Faalogo, Coates and Warbrick might have space to wreak havoc, allowing Munster-Grant to work their magic 

Notes: 

For the Storm, Origin star strike winger Xavier Coates returns from a hamstring injury which sees Grant Anderson drop out. Hughes is still out and Storm GM Ponisini hinted he is touch-and-go for next week. For the Eels, Bryce Cartwright returns from a rib injury which pushes Brendan Hands out of the 17 to the reserves bench. Arthur has dropped rookie Ethan Sanders after just two games and has recalls Daejarn Asi at five-eighth.

Stat Attack

• The Storm are the highest scoring team at Magic Round (126 points in four games).
• The Eels have won only 1 of 3 games between the Eels and Storm at Suncorp.
• Parramatta have lost the last two-straight against the Storm, but the winning spoils are split five a piece over the last 10 (50%).
• After R17, 2023 last year the Eels have won one game outside of Commbank (end of 2023, Penrith, Bluebet); 1/7 (14.3%) conceding on average 37 points a game (16.57-37.00 -20.43).
• Storm hooker Harry Grant has scored a try in his last three games against the Eels.
• Eels winger Maika Sivo has scored five tries in three Magic Round games.
• Storm centre Reimis Smith has scored a try in his last three games at Suncorp Stadium.
• The Eels concede the most linebreaks in the competition (6.6 per game, more than the Rabbits at 6.2 pg and Titans at 5.8 pg).
• The Eels are in a sharp decline from last year, after R17 winning only 6 of their last 17 (35%) conceding almost 30 points per game (29.9pg) on average since then. That’s the second-worst defensive rate in the Eels’ NRL history (2013 spoon year is the worst in Eels' NRL history at 30.9 pg).

Eels work hard for little gains

The Eels were impressive in large patches of the game against the Broncos. Nine commentator Gus Gould called the Eels "gutsy" and claimed that once Moses returned they would be okay. If only Eels fans were as optimistic.

Paolo, RCG, Matterson, Hopgood put in the hard work for little results| Getty

The Eels were aggressive, and ran more direct than usual - both in the engine room and outside backs.

The Eels intensity and line speed (6.01 pre-contact m/run) was one of the fastest it’s been all year against the team with the equal fastest line-speed along with the Panthers.

They dominated field position (60% of territory) and possession (53% overall, 58% at half-time). They made more run metres than the Broncos, more tackle busts (44-26), more offloads (20-4), and had far more opportunities in the Broncos 20m red zone (41-16 tackles), more penalties (4-3), more restarts (2-1). They also made less missed tackles than the Broncos (26-44) despite making more tackles (332- 317) than them. Line-breaks were even Stevens (4-4). Unsurprising the Eels made more errors (14-11) and had worse completion rates (23/38, 60% to 28/38, 74%) which really helped sink the Eels. 

However, the Broncos despite being on the back foot against the aggressive hard-working Eels, they had too much class, athleticism and speed for the Eels.

They were able to win most of the more of the big moments, without over-exerting themselves.

It wasn’t just that they were able to take advantage of the Eels errors, they stole the game away from the Eels in around a five-to-six minute window when they put their foot on the gas.

5 Minutes was all it took: Brilliance and The Kick Chase Curse

Although the the Eels' effort areas were improved on earlier weeks, some of their poor kick chases relative to the Broncos were pivotal smaller fires that led to bigger fires.

In between the 52th-57th the score went from 14-18 to 14-30 for the Broncos. Bang, bang.

It was around the 50’ minute mark that the Broncos started to lift a few gears and claw back on the Eels almost huge possessional and territoritorial. It was then that a tremendous Broncos kick-chase camped the Eels in their territory. They then attacked with their defence, hoping the error-prone Eels, who struggled to make metres against the onslaught, would spill the ball deep in Eels territory.

51st-52nd minute: A poor Eels' kick chase sets up another Broncos try minute off some Mam brilliance

It meant that in the 51', Lussick kicked on the 4th around the Eels 40m line to try to take the energy and out of the Broncos stinging pressure and avoid more spilled balls. The intention wasn’t dumb.

However, the Eels kick chase was poor and it allows the Broncos to start their set on their 40m, near halfway putting the Eels back on the back-foot and the Broncos get an opportunity in the Eels' red zone.

It’s almost as if the kick-chase was an afterthought as they dawdled down field. Or perhaps, there was a lack of communication, unprepared, even taken by surprise, given Arthur’s penchant for workharse rakes not thinking play-makers looking to help manage the game?

A minute later in the 52’, the Broncos score off some eyes-up brilliance from Mam who chips and regathers for a four-pointer - after spotting fullback Talagi up towards the front line.

6 points. Score goes from 14-18 to 14-24 to the Broncos.

Then, barely two minutes later, the Broncos do the same one-two punch in a different way.

54th-56th minute: Rogers kick and kick chase sets up a repeat set and another Broncos try off Walsh-Cobbo brilliance

In the 54th, Josh Rogers puts up an attacking bomb from Eels' 40m.

In contrast to the Eels, it’s followed up with a great kick chase that forces Talagi in goal, giving the Broncos a golden opportunity in the Eels' red zone once again. Sustained pressure. This time it was the brilliance of the Walsh-Cobbo show that led to a try on the back of some pressure.

Another six points. Broncos go to 14-30 at the 57th minute. The final score.

In around five minutes, on the back of far superior kick chasing, brilliance and class the Broncos won critical moments and grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck. It undid all the good the Eels did for the better part of 70 minutes.

The other critical difference was speed.

The Need for Speed

When the Eels made two crucial errors in the Broncos red zone when in good attacking position (via two Sanders hospital short passes to Lane and Dylan that were dropped) the Broncos had enough speed and skill to take advantage of it and scored two length of the field tries (16’ Walsh try, 38’ Mariner try).

Two Eels’ errors, two Broncos’ tries. 12 points.

47th minute: Eels don’t have the speed to capitalize on a Broncos errors and score, unlike the Broncos

Unlike the Broncos, when the Eels were faced with similar opportunties off Broncos dropped balls when they were on the attack, they didn’t have the acceleration or speed to capitalize after making a break.

The Broncos speed was on display again with their second try when Mariner just burnt our left-edge and Talagi with speed to score.

The Eels just don’t have the mammoth talent lever of the Broncos that can cause major havoc and damage with limited opportunities.

It also puts the errors of Sanders-Lane-Dylan on highlight reels like a giant moss ball on our nose under a magnifying glass.

Bombed-tries-and-error-a-thon: Bad luck or self-sabotage?

Here is a brief synopsis of some of key missed opportunities or errors by the Eels that either led to bombed tries or Broncos tries.

• 7’ bombed try: Simmonson barges over and drops the ball over the line looking almost certain to score; it ruined some great lead up work by him 
• 16’ error leading to Broncos first try (Walsh): Sanders-to-Dylan short-hospital-pass on right edge dropped; Broncos with enough speed run the field
• 20’ bombed try: Dylan drops a ball 20m from the tryline to end a promising raid
• 35’ Sanders throws a wild pass aiming for an unmarked Sivo with an overlap in the Broncos’ red zone; but the ball goes into touch
• 38’ error leading to Broncos third try (Mariner): Sanders-to-Lane short-hospital -pass on left edge dropped; Broncos with enough speed run the field 
• 47' Eels make an incisive break picking up a Broncos dropped ball but Penisini lacks the pace and support to capitalise and is mowed down (in contrast the Broncos score twice in similar circumstances for their 1st and 3rd tries); Eels fail to score 
• 49’ bombed try Penisini barges over the tryline but drops the ball when he looked certain to score
• 51' poor Eels' kick chase after sustained Broncos pressure, gives Broncos and opportunity in the Eels red zone; a Mam try eventuates in the 52'
• 60’ an Eels' forward pass in the Broncos’ red zone break down a promising raid
• 72’ bombed try Talagi try disallowed because of Kelma Tuilagi obstruction
• 75’ bombed try Sanders attacking kick caught by Sivo a few metres from the tryline but dropped by Talagi a try begging.
• 78’ bombed try Talagi makes a break but then offers a reckless one-handed pass to support near the Broncos tryline that is dropped

Another Eels bombed try (75’): Sivo does his job offlaoding after doing well in the air to catch a well-placed Sanders’ kick, but Talagi drops it with the tryline begging. A well placed Sanders kick also contributed to the Dylan's try right after half-time to get the Eels to 14-18 and back in the match |  Getty

It's hard to keep track of them all. And I'm sure I've missed another half a dozen or so fluffed chances.

Is that bad luck? Or is a continuation of Ben Sanderson's self-sabotaging theme in Leaving Las Vegas from last week's preview ? Or are we that bad?

Bad Luck was a theme that night that Paolo brought up in the post-game pressor as did Gus calling the game.

I like their energy... There's been some wonderful moments. They've just been unlucky.

Nine commentator Gus Gould on the Eels in their R10 clash 

Gus also noted during the game, and has been saying this for a few weeks, that the Eels will improve and get back to form once Moses returns.

Adaptability

Injuries to key players are part of the game. Inevitable.

Kaufusi scores the guts of the Storm 

Adaptability was one of the features of Storm’s conquerers last week. They adapted intelligently to life without Hynes. Brailey (above) who was named at seven took command, but not from the conventional half position, but from dummy half. Even Jack Williams found himself at half. They changed their game, played with less width, and more of a running game and managed to score several tries through the guts of the Storm under the post barging through their middle.

Adaptability is theme that you find in well-balanced teams.

The Storm do drop-off somewhat without first-string half Hughes, especially in attack. But not off-the-cliff like the Eels do. With Hughes they win around 75.8% (W100/132, av.score 27.8 - 15.1) Without Hughes they win around 67.4% (31/46, av. score 23 - 15.3). A net difference of +5 points.

The Broncos beat us with Reynolds. They often win without Reynolds (won 3/4 this year). Statistically, the drop-off since 2022 without Reynolds is even less than with Hughes at the Storm.

Penrith often manage to win without Cleary (won 3 / 4 this year). They overcame the Dogs (R10, 2024) as well despite losing Cleary in the 38th minute (Jack Cole replaced him) ahead 12-0. They weren’t the same team after that but they managed to hang on and win 16-10 in a dour affair. From 2020, with Cleary they win around 87.1%. (W74/85, av.score 27.7 - 11.8) Without Cleary they win around 72.4% (21/29, av. score 22.1 - 16.2). A net difference of around +10 points.

Moses also causes net difference of around +10 points. That’s the same as what Cleary means to the Panthers, but Eels’ win rate falls off a cliff. From 2019, with Moses the Eels win around 62.6%. (W72/115, av.score 23.7 - 19.7) Without Moses they win rate nosedives to 35% (7/20, av. score 17.7 - 23.8).

The Knights have won three-straight without Ponga, their superstar fullback.

Even the Raiders won in R9, 2024 without Jamal Fogarty last week in an almightly comeback after being down 20-0 after 28 minutes against Manly and win 26-24. They looked like they were going to join us in Leaving Las Vegas after getting belted 40-0 by the Sharks in R8.

Gus on a recent Six Tackles episode talks about Moses' rising, "esculating value by not playing".

Gus has a point. That Moses will improve the Eels and his value has skyrocketed by not playing. It is also true that the Eels do even worse without both Moses and Gutherson.

But, the bottom line is they also have not adapted like good teams and clubs do. Instead, imploded. All of which suggests dozens of different issues from a lack of planning, systems, leadership to cultural.

Line-speed Intensity: A Storm bounce-back, and potential Eels’ drop?

Attack & Defensive Stats

Interestingly, despite the high-flying top-four Storm being far superior to the Eels in attack, defence and most areas, they have ordinary line speed at times.

But their intensity and linespeed can adapt and transform to ultra-elite when needed. Again, adaptability.

As such there is an intelligent efficiency there founded on decades-old culture of disciplined structure, earthmoving grunt in the likes of NAS, and Origin-rep-class spines in the likes of Munster and Grant that can pull-a-rabbit-out-of-a-hat magical trick play. 

Storm v Eels line-speed (pre-contact m/run) round-by-round, plotted against their opposition

Actually, the Storm's linespeed has been dropping off over the last few weeks, whilst the Eels have picked theirs up for two successive weeks.

That spells a dangerous one-two punch for the Eels.

One, the Storm will pack a harder punch: have a high-intensity bounce-back after their Sharks loss, which stirred Bellamy's ire.

Two, the Eels are more than capable of giving themselves a decent upper cut if they switch off. The Eels have a famed proclivity towards off-on-yo-yo performances. If they can't manage to implode half-to-half then it can be managed week-to-week. So, a drop off is on the cards especially considering they gave themselves a pat on the back for their Broncos loss.

Reactions to last week’s losses: Bellamy unimpressed, Eels’ proud and pat themselves on the back

Bellamy and Grant at the R10 post-game presser

Meanwhile, third-placed Storm coach Bellamy was livid after the 7-point loss. 

“I was really disappointed in how we started both halves.”

I don't like saying this but at different stages it looked like the game was more important to them than it was to us.

Bellamy in the R10 post-game pressor

Arthur and Paolo at the R10 post game presser

Struggling Eel’s coach Arthur was the complete polar opposite after the 30-14 loss.

I was proud of the effort and physicality and that we’re still fighting and we’re trying to win and that was still right to the death.

Arthur in the R10 post-game pressor

Paolo also noted, “The DNA of the team is still here” and all they needed was a bit of lady luck.

After Wednesday’s Review, Paolo echoed the “effort was there” theme. But in subtle difference from the “bad luck” trope admitted “concentration lapses” had ultimately cost the Eels. Wil Penisini doubled down on similar themes.

Our effort was through the roof against the Broncos...Execution let us down…We've just got to nail those moments

Penisini after the R10 Wednesday review

 

Meanwhile, earlier on Thursday, speaking to SEN Radio, former Storm junior, and golf loving Kelma Tuilagi, spoke about the Wednesday’s review theme on “Club Solidarity” and not taking any notice of the outside noise that is growing louder as the losses mount. It’s not unrelated to Arthur’s narrative from last week about him being “one hundred percent” sure he had the board’s full support that ensured he wasn’t “coaching scared”. It also echoes Lane’s comments from last week that players “only listened to what was inside the club’s four walls.”

For Eels’ fans holding out for a last minute Bennett miracle on the horizon, it’s looking grim.

There is also the scent the club is digging its heels in and holding out for a recovery through standing as “One” and the hint or perhaps good old fashioned “seige mentality”. Us against the world; outside our four walls.

In a nutshell

Against the Storm, we are unlikely to be allowed the quantity of opportunities, to bomb, that we got against the Broncos.

The Storm’s structures and systems are closer to Penrith than the Broncos and they hold high expectations.

Both teams are missing key spine players (their top fullbacks and halfbacks) but the Storm - like successful clubs do - adapt. The Eels have not. Their replacements Wishart and Faalogo fitting like a glove with their structure and systems holding up .

The Eels seem a shadow of themselves without Moses and Gutherson despite some promising signs with young Talagi, and the all-round efforts of Dylan Brown and the engine room led by the likes of Matto, RCG, Paolo and Hopgood.

We have issues not just with adaptability, and structural vulnerabilities without Moses, but lack the brilliant talent, speed and potency out wide to be able to counter-punch with knockout blows like the Broncos do.

The Storm also have Queensland-soul and class in Origin stars like Grant and Munster, and plenty of strike in Coates, Faalogo, Katao, Blore, and grunt and when their earthmover Nelson Asofa-Solomona comes off the bench. With the Eels’ penchent for poor kick chasers that could spell danger for the Eels with the likes of Coates and Faalogo.

You’d back the Storm to rebound from a few lower weeks in intensity - with venom. They will be out for redemption. Beware.

The fact the Eels patted themselves on the back, might not help either.

How close the scoreline will be depends on whether the Eels can break their vicious cycles and rut they're in, since mid-last year really. Can they go break their cultural habits of dropping off either week-to-week or half-to-half?

If not and the Eel switch off, as they often do, expect another hiding of eighteen points or more. Arthur’s 50th.

POST GAME COMMENT:

The Eels lost 48-16. It's Arthur's 50th blowout loss.

Unfortunately, the forewarning was correct. As predicted and often the case (the Eels are well-known for not being a week-to-week, half-to-half prospect) the Storm picked up their linespeed, and ours dropped after two weeks of being "up".