2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.
Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.
Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.
The Good
Ample Opportunities
Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average), followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).
Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.
High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).
Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).
Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).
Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).
Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).
Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.
The Bad
We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.
- R10: Broncos at Commbank
- R11: Storm at Suncorp
- R12: Rabbits at Accor
- R13: Sharks at Commbank
- R14: Dogs at Accor
- R15: Roosters at Commbank
If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.
The Ugly
Ruts, Regression and Depression
The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.
I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.
Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).
That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).
Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game.
We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.
During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.
It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.
Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year
Getty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council
We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points.
Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D).
Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.
We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).
Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013
Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th).
That’s the worst under the Arthur era.
It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively).
Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.
We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).
Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th).
We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.
We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities.
There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.
A tale of Mercurial extremes
Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.
Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era
In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).
Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era
Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by.
In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017).
In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.
Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss.
In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week.
In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.
However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.
A scene from the exorcist.
49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff
In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.
“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”
The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.
After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.
Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths.
Seven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.
No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.
The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again
According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.
That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon.
Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.
Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.
It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.
King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.
Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.
Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).
Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.
Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).
Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ), Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).
Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.
Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.
Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).
Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).
Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).
All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.
Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.
Father Time is coming: Tick Tock
The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)
Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.
In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.
It’s a beautiful idea.
The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.
From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).
Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).
For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?
Some more good news, with some sweet and sour
Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.
Sue Coleman (above), a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).
The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.
In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.
Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.
O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.
“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.
That part of the report has aged well.
What will it take?
The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.
Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.
At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).
Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.
But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.
How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?
Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.
Replies
Agree in principle with you Coryn, actually its an oxymoron, that doesn't absolve BA though, he has shown no sign of vision in his total approach.
If I was in his current position I would be swinging off trees trying to get players now to fill some gaps, whether ESL or minor grades, our NSW Cup side is not worth two bob, surely we could attempt to pick the eyes out of the best with offers too good to refuse.
This kid that is going to debut this week, is the Broncs 3rd or 4th choice, I bet you anything he is better than anything we have at half in the club outside of Moses. How do I know this, I don't but if its not him it will be someone else.....we are not looking hard enough.
The top heavy approach isn't going to bring us long term stability we need through our club.Like you mention this kid the broncs are debuting we have nothing like across the board that's what we should be working too.I'm not sure we are or have the roadmap to get there either.
BAs time may well be well up but the problem still remains it matters not who we replace him with if the bottom where the talent is supposed to come from just isn't there.
So for me we are in the same spot just moving the names on a few offices pretending we have fixed the problem when we haven't.
I've also been a huge proponent of looking everywhere and anywhere for talent this is what I mean to me that's just 2' in front of your face stuff that MoN and co clearly missing.
Coryn, You make insightful & intelligent points as does Pops.
Regardless of the board or GM, I don't see how we can absolve BA.
His job is winning or finding a way, not being a rock.
If he truly thinks he can't do it under the GM or board, why stay on for 11 years?
It's then just a beautiful (multi-million) pay cheque, or the blind leading the blind, or partially blind.
To be fair, the fact we were able to get to 2019-22 assembling a decent roster to the grand final suggests they're not all completely, useless "dopes".
It also probably suggests that Gurr (left end of 2019) had a bigger role in setting up the foundation for the 2019-22 resurgence than he is give credit for.
It's just clear as day we need far more, and changes, if we truly want to be a winning club.
Something they all seem resistant too, for now, which begs plenty of questions. Why? And when will we see changes? How?
I do think 2022 GF in hindsight now could have been the players doing it for one another before they left to other teams. As a bit of a last hurrah.
I'm not absolving BA mate but the question still remains if the powers above don't have the issues that are the club have what chance does a new coach have.
I'm open on this subject I just think we don't have a big picture plan in place across our footy club which is going to hamper whoever the head coach is.
It starts with our director of football and our head coach whom ever it is going foward.They have to be on the same page.I don't know if they are.
Secondly I hate the idea of a 5 man R & R committee hate it.No chance I'd have 3 other opinions around picking who I recruit and keep no chance.
The biggest problems start as drips and become floods this is what we must remedy whom ever we choose to go with as our FG coach.
I can remember how positive everyone was when the new board said they were were going to have annual (?) reviews as part of their admin professional style. Probably a feel good gesture at the time.
Yeah, TAD, good point. I suppose every club does regular reviews, weekly for playing groups.
TAD, you'll love this. Spot Dr. Jauncey from the coaching box, tunnels to the training paddock. If one of the greatest or the greatest coach in the game does this ... it's telling.
Nice contrast of the brain's trust HOE
HOE I noticed Dr Jauncey sitting next to Bennett in tonights game
Coryn, true. Not arguing against you. For years, I've maintained we have "top-to-toe" cultural issues with a lot of key missing ingredients (the evidence was always in our on-off mentallity).
But, IMO Bennett & his caravan is our best chance NOW to get the best out of our NRL squad and any windows (2-3 years) we have left in our current cycle. Plus, a lot more than that.
Sure, he's not going to fix upstream issues. He's not going to fix our pathways or long term issues. That's not his job. His job is winning with the NRL squad, some related development, and he's knows how to do that. Sorry to say, but better than Arthur does.
We'd need a restructuring up top from GM upwards to change some of that.
I mean we knock Gus as a "dope" and "over-the-hill", out-of-touch whatever, but look at what he's doing at the Dogs (putting aside the decades of other stuff). He's completely rebuilt them over a few painful years when everyone was jeering them. They're slowly climbing out of a deep hole.
That's because he's their GM and his passion is pathways and bigger picture structures, getting kids ready to be handed to Ciraldo for NRL-level-development. And from my many interactions with him many years ago (when he was at the Roosters & SOO coach and I was living out Bronte way as an architecture uni student working in the local diners), I've got a soft spot for him. He'd often frequent the local restaurants as he does with the Dogs too. He's an utter gentleman and a deeper thinker than many give him credit for. He'd sit alone, quietly, not bothering anyone, thinking and reading. A bit of a lone wolf feel to him at times, but I have nothing but respect for the man. Sure he can be on the nose for high-level administrators (just ask the NRL) who like "control", but hearing from people who know him better, personally, they give similar accounts.
The other thing with Bennett is he'd set a new benchmark.
It's one that our current PNRL board (assuming they stay largely set in their ways) who aren't by trade or design "footy-running" business owners would learn from.
Sure we're missing a hell of a lot of ingredients up top (footy nous, diehard passion, and business owner level clout) but Sarantinos is not as dumb as he is portrayed by many. He's not an utter dope. He knows he's "learning on the job" and is a big-picture kind of guy with broad interests and love of sport. If he was an utter dope we would not have been able to do 2019-22 (which Bernie probably also had a hand in its foundation). He's doing well in other areas of the PNRL besides the footy side of the equation. The financial side and "whole club" thought processes, which is important too. But, the problem is that's not anywhere near enough.
Bennett would also be a huge injection of ideas and voice. Winning ideas.
He'd be inspiration and shot in the arm for younger kids coming through the grade. Especially, considering the COE is a new "Community Hub" where the juniors and higher grades and NRL are all under the same umbrella, physically, for the first time with the broader community.
Currently, we've got the losing NRL squad, the heroes the younger kids are meant to look up for inspiration, looking like chumps.Tarzans playing like Jane.
Losing is contagious, and it spreads downstream.
Just look at our higher grades (NRL 12th, Cup side and Jersey second last) compared to our juniors (SG Ball and Harold Mathews top five).
Honestly, if we don't try to move heaven and earth to get Bennett, it's bordering on professional negligence and blindness.
If we're lucky, he'll also have a coaching succession plan in place (yeah, this part hasn't worked out well for other clubs) that might work after he leaves. Because he usually takes his magic with him (and Jauncey who is everywhere with him sitting next to him from the coaching box to the training paddock).
Yeah, you're right recruitment is a tricky one.
It's hard for many NRL head coaches to have complete "wish list" autonomy overriding the GM's voice and cap management issues. We did reasonably well with our recruitment over 2019-22 (maybe Bernie is partially responsible for setting the foundation of that). Hopgood is a great buy. Lomax is someone we need badly, too. We still need a lot more.
And we're looking down the barrell of a rebuild (similar to 2019 cycle) which we need to start thinking about now with some more footy brains. Bennett please.
That's just my two cents. I could be wrong. If so, good. Never stop learning.
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