The last time the Eels beat the Storm, we had a Moses-Brown-Guthorino-Reed spine and were singing Happy Days with The Fonz. That was 2022. Since then, we’ve lost a record-breaking five-straight against them. And in those games they treated us like their own personal ATM scoring 182 points in four. That’s over 45 points a game. Enough PTSD to make a therapist quit. Think 56-18 round one. 46-6 half-time.
But that was then. This is now.
Ryles and our Kaizen Warrior Kids are built for pain.
Russell came of age last week: Can David back it up? (Image from our club)
The Eels team list is essentially unchanged from last week. Brown is hanging onto top-18 status. The Storm have lost their fourth fullback and humble general, Jarome Hughes, to a shoulder injury, but get Papenhuyzen and Munster back. Smelling blood in the water. A storm awaits us in a few hours.
Team Lists
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm, 7.50pm AEST at CommBank Stadium
Weather: Expected to be fine, rain likely, around 9-10˚C, 13km/h winds, 79% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $3.66 , Storm $1.28
Referees: Gerard “We’ve Seen this Movie” Sutton (on-field), Chris Butler (Senior Review Official), Gerard Sutton/Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski(Touch Judges)
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti
18th man: 18. Jordan Samrani 22. Dylan Brown
Cut: 19. Kelma Tuilagi 20. Bailey Simonsson 21. Toni Mataele
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Tui Kamikamica
Bench: 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Bronson Garlick 17. Joe Chan
18th man: 18. Kane Bradley 22. Lazarus Vaalepu
Cut: 19. Alec MacDonald 20. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 21. Josiah Pahulu
Head Coach: Craig Bellamy
Storm warning: The bogeyman along with Munster-Magic, the Baba Yagan comedian, are back. Papenhuyzen and his hair (above) always seems to find a way to pull down our pants as he did in the round one slaughter earlier this year (Getty).
Little Pap continues with his second game at fullback in the NRL. He showed some good signs last week, and a deep-burning passion. Good luck, young lad. Expect plenty of pressure this week (Getty images).
Stats: A Torture Chamber
The Eels have lost the last 5-straight against the Storm.
The Eels have lost all 5 games against top-four opposition this season.
Harry Grant has scored 8 tries in his last 8 games against the Eels.
The Storm have won 7 of their last 8 games, doing just enough to win rather than spectacularly dominating teams like they did earlier in the season. They haven’t scored over 38 points since round ten. In the first third of the season they were often scoring over 40-60 points.
In contrast, despite being the arm wrestle in almost every game since round 7 (at least up to the 72nd minute with the Raiders, R20 at 22-16 and up to the 62nd minute against the Panthers, R19, 10-18) we have won only 5 of our last 12.
Mathematically, we’re still alive.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 5 tries in 4 games against the Storm. Here, he celebrates his 150th match-winning try last week's nailbiter (Getty).
Zac Lomax has scored 5 tries in his last 4 games. More Momax, please.
Last week in Brisbane, we made good on our January Kaizen Commitment for constant improvement.
Kaizen: Small Steps for Mankind
We still made more errors than the Broncos (9-8), but that was a colossal step-up from our 16 and 20-errors, against the Raiders (R20) and Panthers (R19). Our completions against the Broncos were also a far cry from the 59% we saw in Canberra.
Compare our average per game stats to last week (nrl.com stats)
Completions: 78.2% (14th) | 86% (last week)
Offloads: 10 (9th) | 3
Run metres: 1618m (14th) | 1381m
Handling Errors: 10.1 (4th) | 9
Tackles: 353 (7th) | 327
Possession: 48.8% (11th) | 51%
Kick Metres: 619m (5th) | 824m. That’s not something you see every day. It's not unlike seeing Haley’s Comet fully sober.
Moses' kicking game last week essentially kept us in the game and grind whilst compensating for a lack of go-forward (image).
Fate: A Game of Inches
With the Eels battling to cease the Broncos momentum in the final ten minutes last week, it all came down to two split-second moments in the dying seconds. A Papalii spill on the line. An offside Walsh sock-or-two with a whiff of nail-polish. Cancelling each other out. It could have gone either way, but we deserved the win.
We were much-improved with our kick-chases, support play, ball-handling, and reduced-error count.
One moment in the 19th minute captured it. An aggressive chase led by Sean Russell and Eels’ jerseys of a rushed skyscraper, Moses under-pressure kick near half-way. The bounce landed into Russell’s hands, who cleverly chipped over Walsh to shock everyone, including most Eels’ fans.
Now, compare that to the Raiders (R21) the week before in these highlights where there was practically zilch support in these moments. A Fox's lone-chase of a kick only to be taken over the line (10th-minute). A solo Fox 60m line-break (11th-minute). A lonely Dylan Walker 40m line-break (16th-minute). A Lomo solo-UFC-special in a hustling, bustling 70m-run, wrestling-an-army-by-himself (22nd-minute). A Doorey 50m break, flying solo (31st-minute).
The Final Word
History says we're heading for pain and potentially a smacking, just like last round. When it was wrong.
David beat Goliath last week at Suncorp. Against all odds. The round one horror shows what we're potentially up against in a few weeks. A Goliath more seasoned and intelligent. We need more of the fundamentals from last week to stay in the grind to have a puncher's chance of an almighty upset.
Can we do the impossible again tonight against the premiership favourites?
Tonight is a big test of character to see how much we've really improved.
PS: Spoon alert. Eels are now equal fourth-favourites with St George ($15). Last week, we were second favourites (at $5.50). As the battle for the spoon heats up, currently the Titans ($2.50) are in pole position then the Rabbits ($3.40) and Knights ($3.75).
Footnote: Stats are sourced from the Rugby League project, nrl.com, Foxlab, David Middleton and Statsinsider.
Replies
Ladies and Gentlemen, Apologies about the slight delay in putting this up. Was a bit rushed and snowed under. Let's go!
HOE the effort alone is appreciated.
Why cant paps sit this week out he tear us apart
But it be great to get a victory over them tonight
The Eels played their GF last week. The emotional high that they got from that win produced a heap of endorphins but once the euphoria subsided an enormous low would have set in.
Just watch them hit their reset button tonight and go back to being the Eels of old. I hope I'm wrong.
Storm 32 Eels 10
Storm have a big forward pack, this is where we can win it, they might be big but nowhere near as mobile as the Broncos. We handled Haas and co pretty easily last week, a repeat performance will see us snatch victory. Grant is the danger man.
Parra 22-14
I'd like to see a change up in our attacking kicks in this one , horses for courses.
Both Melbourne wingers are very good in the air which cancels out Lomax so the emphasis should be working Papenhuyzen out of position and utilising the grubber in behind early for Penisini and Addo-Carr.
Our speed in attack can hurt Melbourne who aren't nearly as staunch defensively since Ryles left, we just have to match their intensity when starting halves .
We are very much capable of making a statement win against a bona fide top four side.
This will be a cracker at home , looking forward to see how we've improved.
Bup, great footy insights. As usual.
Our well-drilled, well-timed expansive coast-to-coast footy certainly look pretty (a heavenly godsend from the last decade) and provides threat. Penrith now do it at alarming break-neck speed.
My only bugbear is: sometimes we over-rely on it. Almost like auto-pilot. Default. But at times we fail to go forward enough. And sometimes it's to compensate for the lack of go-forward dominance in the middle. Sometimes we run out of room, too. It can become predictable: The Broncos were starting to work us out.
Ergo, I'd like to see a bit more variation, switch-plays, variation in the kicking game (we've got Moses, Hawkins, and even Little Pap who likes his little short jabs) as well as threats out of dummy half. Da Silva and Smith are a promising one-two punch, although they look partially on a lease to service the coast-to-coast footy as it relies on quick ball.
To have a hope of staying in the grind with the Storm, we're going to have to maintain the fundamentals we executed from last week — good support play, aggressive kick chases, decent ball-control. Rinse. Repeat. We lose last week without that. If we don't and start making over 15 errors like we have on some weeks, it doesn't matter what strategies we come up with. We'll be smoked and invite the Storm to put on a score on us. When the Roosters made 15 errors in a game, Robinson said his charges weren't first grade standard. When the Storm made 12 errors in a game, Bellamy went off his rockers and called the team soft and looking for easy outs.
Tonight is a bit test of our character.
Our go forward is one of our biggest concerns and why I'd like us to have a massive go at signing Tino.
If you go wider early in the set you still need to attack through the middle, without massive go forward the Eels need to create momentum through the middle third by using short passing , outside in balls and turning a player back inside .
Go wider then punch through the middle , play wider again then punch back through the middle then play what you see off a fast play the ball.
Kick early and make the Melbourne forwards run plenty of metres off the ball, defending laterally as much as possible.
The more you don't allow Melbourne to defend in a pack the quicker our play the ball speed becomes and the more fatigue we bring into their game.
The eels have the ability to put on a score if things go our way the thing about Melbourne is they start halves extremely well , that early momentum is what demoralises lesser teams and they put on too many points for the opposition to recover.
The do however get frustrated when they can't get on top early and the mistakes come.
We need to start as well as they usually do and it's there for the taking.
This is a game of size and strength vs speed and mobility, we can't win playing a regular BA style power game, we have to play an up tempo, mobile , targeted power game.
With the constant changes of the Melbourne halves , centres and wingers we target the combinations starting with attacking the edge of the ruck ,attack back through the middle pulling their defense in , then shift it to our wingers.
With Hughes out really target Munster with kick pressure and make both him and Wishart make 25 plus tackles.
I can't wait to see the game plan we bring or more so our execution of it.
Bup, well said. A couple of areas that concern me.
If they sense blood in the water they'll start their Blitz campaign and grind us out, or cause self-sabotage with enough scoreboard pressure when we get desperate going coast-to-coast.
This will be a challenging match. If we take the initiative from the get-go we will be in the contest. We have to play for 80 minutes and no silly penalties. I think we have a chance.
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