The Eels host the Sea Eagles tonight at CommBank in what’s shaping up to be a wet, potentially scrappy and grinding affair — fitting for Junior Paulo’s 250th milestone. Both sides are coming off impressive wins, but consistency in this competition has been as rare as dry turf in Sydney lately.
Manly roll in as warm favourites, but history leans Eels at home. They’ve taken the last three-straight at home against the Eagles, and haven’t lost to them here in four years - since 2021. Still, with inuries and key Origin stars missing on both sides — Moses, Lomax, Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic — this is anyone’s guess.
It’s Junz's 250th — and the Eels need more than just cake.
Team Lists
Friday, 23 May 2025, CommBank Stadium, 8pm AEST
Weather: Wet, Cloudy, around 17˚C (probably not reach dew point at 12˚C), 9-22km/h winds (could be gust), around 75% humidity
Ground: Could be interesting
Sportsbet: $2.74 Eels, Tigers $1.47 Eagles
Referees: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Phil Henderson (touch judge), Grant Atkins (senior review official, the bunker’s buzz in the ref’s ear).
Eels:
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 12. Kitione Kautoga 15. Luca Moretti 13. J’maine Hopgood
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 11. Kelma Tuilagi 16. Ryan Matterson 18. Joash Papali’i
18th Man: 17. Matt Doorey
Cut: 19. Joey Lussick 20. Toni Mataele 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Samuel Loizou
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Sea Eagles:
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 15. Corey Waddell 13. Jazz Tevaga
Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge 22. Caleb Navale
18th Man: 18. Clayton Faulalo
Cut: 12. Ben Trbojevic 19. Brandon Wakeham 20. Tommy Talau 21. Michael Chee Kam
Head Coach: Anthony Seibold
Key Ins and Outs.
Eels. Ins - Papali’i debuts, Hawkins, Samrani, Tuilagi. Outs - Moses, Lomax and Mataele
Manly. Ins - Arthur, Waddell. Outs - Ben Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic
Stats
The Eels have only taken 4 of the last 10 against Manly — but they’ve won 5 of their last 6 against them at CommBank.
Wingers love this turf.
- Reuben Garrick: 13 tries in 13 vs Eels
- Jason Saab: 4 tries in last 4 at CommBank
- Josh Addo-Carr: 7 in 7 here — can the Fox feast again?
Can the Fox keep up his try-scoring feast tonight up against fellow speedsters in the wet?
By the numbers
| Attack | ppg | Defence | ppg | |
| 1 | Storm (4) | 33.8 | Bulldogs (1) | 15.8 |
| 2 | Raiders (3) | 28.9 | Sharks (5) | 18.7 |
| 3 | Bulldogs (1) | 26.8 | Warriors (2) | 20.0 |
| 4 | Broncos (9) | 26.2 | Knights (15) | 20.2 |
| 5 | Sharks (5) | 25.1 | Storm (4) | 20.3 |
| 6 | Manly (6) | 24.8 | Manly (6) | 21.0 |
| 7 | Panthers (13) | 24.4 | Souths (7) | 21.2 |
| 9 | Dragons (10) | 22.8 | Dolphins (14) | 22.2 |
| 8 | Cowboys (8) | 22.8 | Broncos (9) | 22.4 |
| 10 | Dolphins (14) | 22.7 | Raiders (3) | 23.1 |
| 11 | Roosters (11) | 22.4 | Dragons (10) | 23.9 |
| 12 | Titans (17) | 21.0 | Panthers (13) | 24.6 |
| 13 | Tigers (12) | 20.5 | Tigers (12) | 25.5 |
| 14 | Warriors (2) | 20.5 | Cowboys (8) | 26.0 |
| 15 | Eels (16) | 17.9 | Roosters (11) | 27.0 |
| 16 | Souths (7) | 16.5 | Eels (16) | 27.8 |
| 17 | Knights (15) | 12.8 | Titans (17) | 31.0 |
Statistically, Manly should take this. But footy isn’t played on spreadsheets, and the Eels seem to be improving.
The Hunt for Resilience and Consistency
As Ryles begins to reshape the club and harden its culture, a key focus has been shoring up the team's soft underbelly—a weakness that defined much of the Arthur era. That period was marked by maddening Jekyll-and-Hyde inconsistency, swinging wildly from promise to collapse, often week-to-week. The fall actually began post-2020, defensively, and by mid-2023 the decline was in freefall, and 2024 saw biblical second-half implosions that became the stuff of nightmares.
Now, there's a flicker of hope. The eye test hints at progress—slow, gritty, but real. Still, time will tell if the foundation is truly solid or just another false dawn.
| R1-2 | LL | Blowouts | Concede 44.0 ppg |
| R3-5 | LLW | Signs of Life | Concede 22.3 ppg |
| R6 | L | Blowout at Darwin | Concede 50 |
| R7-11 | WBLLW | Stabilizing | Concede 19 ppg |
So, will we see a fall this week or continued resilience? If the recent defensive trend holds, 19 points per game is not just respectable—it’s top-four defence standard in this topsy-turvy competition. But don’t exhale yet. We've seen this movie before.
Last week, Jack Williams made some power-packed runs: quality over quantity. More of that, please.
Final Word
Who will adapt best?
Execution, pack dominance, ball control and the errors will be everything. It could become a battle of blunders. The Eels have made more errors than their opponent in every game this year, bar three. Manly matched their 15 errors last week. Commbank's lights also makes it challenging when it comes to defusing high balls. Should we expect chaos?
Whose spine and playmakers will rise? The Eels have won only 4 of 21 games without Moses — but 3 of those 4 wins were at CommBank. They rise at home more often. Similarly, Manly are 3 from 8 without DCE in the last five seasons - but 2 of those 3 wins were at home at 4Pines. They rarely go to war without him.
It’s Paulo’s night, but he won’t want fanfare — just two points. .
Manly want to consolidate their position in the top eight. The Eels want redemption, against the odds. Who wants it more in the mud? Who can keep their head more?
The Eels celebrate after last week's big 28-6 win over the Knights at Newcastle. Can they make it two-straight for the first time this year and do it for Junz?
Replies
The best way to entice Galvin is to make him realise that we have other good options if he decides not to come.. Make him feel like he is missing out on an opportunity to be a part of something which may tbe good for his career rather than look like we are desperate for him and he can name his price for his services . Take it or leave it
Our defence looks a lot better organised. We're controlling the ruck better, not getting shredded through the middle. Then on the edges we looked a lot more connected with everyone working together to solve the problem.
Probably the most impressive part was fixing the right edge for the second half. Joash and Jordan seemed to click defensively and they shut down Manly's best play pretty easily.
Last time I remember defence like that was the Prelim in Townsville.
Great to see it coming together.
This^ Second half right side defence was outstanding.
Kept Manly scoreless for 55 minutes.
Joash's tackle on Hopoate in the corner during the second half was a game changer momentum wise and a good argument could be made the team rode home off the back of it.
Great Post HOE,
You've mentioned this before, attack matters and this has been the template for the Panthers for years - Jason has developed a game plan that suit's the squad, it's clear we don't require a bunch of marquee signings - we a game plan.The ball movement, spacing and and every players being live with ball in hand will too much for the opposition to handle. Great times ahead.
Defense more so.
The modern game must be built around defense the latter is highlights and decides by how much.
The only issue I have with JRs game plan is the copy cat nature of it.Then talent does matter.
Thats the reason why Gus and co are chasing down Galvin he understands in the key spots his team isn't there and have stop gap spine players.
I mean Tracey Sexton are great examples I'm not even sure he sees Mahoney or Burton as long term options.If they land Galvin I'd play him at 7 and have him on the ball and let Burton control the kicking game end of sets long kicking especially inside the 20 Galvin has the keys.
Incorrect, your not really observing what Jason is implementing
So you can't see defensive improvement as being the key then.
Even though the last month we've been #2 in the comp.
Riff premiership success not built round defense then even though in those years they averaged 13-14 ppg against.
Nevermind that you just keep watching the highlights defense wins championships that addage will never change.
Your completely wrong, I couldn't be bothered explaining why.
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