The Eels host the Sea Eagles tonight at CommBank in what’s shaping up to be a wet, potentially scrappy and grinding affair — fitting for Junior Paulo’s 250th milestone. Both sides are coming off impressive wins, but consistency in this competition has been as rare as dry turf in Sydney lately.
Manly roll in as warm favourites, but history leans Eels at home. They’ve taken the last three-straight at home against the Eagles, and haven’t lost to them here in four years - since 2021. Still, with inuries and key Origin stars missing on both sides — Moses, Lomax, Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic — this is anyone’s guess.
It’s Junz's 250th — and the Eels need more than just cake.
Team Lists
Friday, 23 May 2025, CommBank Stadium, 8pm AEST
Weather: Wet, Cloudy, around 17˚C (probably not reach dew point at 12˚C), 9-22km/h winds (could be gust), around 75% humidity
Ground: Could be interesting
Sportsbet: $2.74 Eels, Tigers $1.47 Eagles
Referees: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Phil Henderson (touch judge), Grant Atkins (senior review official, the bunker’s buzz in the ref’s ear).
Eels:
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 12. Kitione Kautoga 15. Luca Moretti 13. J’maine Hopgood
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 11. Kelma Tuilagi 16. Ryan Matterson 18. Joash Papali’i
18th Man: 17. Matt Doorey
Cut: 19. Joey Lussick 20. Toni Mataele 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Samuel Loizou
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Sea Eagles:
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 15. Corey Waddell 13. Jazz Tevaga
Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge 22. Caleb Navale
18th Man: 18. Clayton Faulalo
Cut: 12. Ben Trbojevic 19. Brandon Wakeham 20. Tommy Talau 21. Michael Chee Kam
Head Coach: Anthony Seibold
Key Ins and Outs.
Eels. Ins - Papali’i debuts, Hawkins, Samrani, Tuilagi. Outs - Moses, Lomax and Mataele
Manly. Ins - Arthur, Waddell. Outs - Ben Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic
Stats
The Eels have only taken 4 of the last 10 against Manly — but they’ve won 5 of their last 6 against them at CommBank.
Wingers love this turf.
- Reuben Garrick: 13 tries in 13 vs Eels
- Jason Saab: 4 tries in last 4 at CommBank
- Josh Addo-Carr: 7 in 7 here — can the Fox feast again?
Can the Fox keep up his try-scoring feast tonight up against fellow speedsters in the wet?
By the numbers
| Attack | ppg | Defence | ppg | |
| 1 | Storm (4) | 33.8 | Bulldogs (1) | 15.8 |
| 2 | Raiders (3) | 28.9 | Sharks (5) | 18.7 |
| 3 | Bulldogs (1) | 26.8 | Warriors (2) | 20.0 |
| 4 | Broncos (9) | 26.2 | Knights (15) | 20.2 |
| 5 | Sharks (5) | 25.1 | Storm (4) | 20.3 |
| 6 | Manly (6) | 24.8 | Manly (6) | 21.0 |
| 7 | Panthers (13) | 24.4 | Souths (7) | 21.2 |
| 9 | Dragons (10) | 22.8 | Dolphins (14) | 22.2 |
| 8 | Cowboys (8) | 22.8 | Broncos (9) | 22.4 |
| 10 | Dolphins (14) | 22.7 | Raiders (3) | 23.1 |
| 11 | Roosters (11) | 22.4 | Dragons (10) | 23.9 |
| 12 | Titans (17) | 21.0 | Panthers (13) | 24.6 |
| 13 | Tigers (12) | 20.5 | Tigers (12) | 25.5 |
| 14 | Warriors (2) | 20.5 | Cowboys (8) | 26.0 |
| 15 | Eels (16) | 17.9 | Roosters (11) | 27.0 |
| 16 | Souths (7) | 16.5 | Eels (16) | 27.8 |
| 17 | Knights (15) | 12.8 | Titans (17) | 31.0 |
Statistically, Manly should take this. But footy isn’t played on spreadsheets, and the Eels seem to be improving.
The Hunt for Resilience and Consistency
As Ryles begins to reshape the club and harden its culture, a key focus has been shoring up the team's soft underbelly—a weakness that defined much of the Arthur era. That period was marked by maddening Jekyll-and-Hyde inconsistency, swinging wildly from promise to collapse, often week-to-week. The fall actually began post-2020, defensively, and by mid-2023 the decline was in freefall, and 2024 saw biblical second-half implosions that became the stuff of nightmares.
Now, there's a flicker of hope. The eye test hints at progress—slow, gritty, but real. Still, time will tell if the foundation is truly solid or just another false dawn.
| R1-2 | LL | Blowouts | Concede 44.0 ppg |
| R3-5 | LLW | Signs of Life | Concede 22.3 ppg |
| R6 | L | Blowout at Darwin | Concede 50 |
| R7-11 | WBLLW | Stabilizing | Concede 19 ppg |
So, will we see a fall this week or continued resilience? If the recent defensive trend holds, 19 points per game is not just respectable—it’s top-four defence standard in this topsy-turvy competition. But don’t exhale yet. We've seen this movie before.
Last week, Jack Williams made some power-packed runs: quality over quantity. More of that, please.
Final Word
Who will adapt best?
Execution, pack dominance, ball control and the errors will be everything. It could become a battle of blunders. The Eels have made more errors than their opponent in every game this year, bar three. Manly matched their 15 errors last week. Commbank's lights also makes it challenging when it comes to defusing high balls. Should we expect chaos?
Who's spine and playmakers will rise? The Eels have won only 4 of 21 games without Moses — but 3 of those 4 were at CommBank. They rise at home more often. Similarly, Manly are 3 from 8 without DCE in the last five seasons - but 2 of those 3 wins were at home at 4Pines. They rarely go to war without him.
It’s Paulo’s night, but he won’t want fanfare — just two points. .
Manly want to consolidate their position in the top eight. The Eels want redemption, against the odds. Who wants it more in the mud? Who can keep their head more?
The Eels celebrate after last week's big 26-6 win over the Knights at Newcastle. Can they make it two-straight for the first time this year and do it for Junz?
Replies
How is penis going?
Will Penisini has his trusty WD-40 on hand tonite
The early game in cup has been postponed till tomorrow 11.30
Fark he will push me over the edge with his nonsense tonight
Great read as always, HOE.
What's your pick?
Very positive defensive stats there - the 19ppg allowed over past 4 weeks. If that continues tonight, very good signs.
Great to see the team celebrating like that after last week, they're buying in & it obviously means a lot.
Excited to see Joash debut, even in this weather could cause some headaches for Manly's tiring middle.
Eels 20-16 for Junz's big one with huge efforts defensively on their goal line getting them home.
Thanks again for the effort HOE.
The boys will be up for this, we might not win but it'll be a 1-12 type job either way 22-14 manly
I think they will miss Moses too much and his safety net - the belief won't be there - but it won't be a bloodbath and they will be competitive
I'll be putting on true crime on Netflix by halfway through the second half I hate to say
Being wet I think we will be back to our usual self with lots of droped balls and errors. Manly by 6
Do you usualy predict our game outcomes by your level of arousal ?
Hahaha
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