Do we want to finish in the top 4?

Scenario 1:

1. Bust a gut to finish 3rd or 4th.

2. Play Penrith/Storm when they have given their key players a refreshing rest and we haven't; and suffer a demoralising loss with probably some injuries or suspensions in a hard game.

3. Play whichever 5-8 side is in form and on a roll and either bow out in straight sets or limp through.

4. Play a full strength Penrith/Storm while we are likely down on troops.

5. Unlikely to make it to GF 

 

Scenario 2.

1. Rest key players in the last two rounds and cruise into 5th place.

2. Play the worst of 5-8 and have a relatively easy game and less likely to suffer injury or suspension.

3. Play a demoralised opposition who have just come off a hard loss to Penrith/Storm. Again have a relatively easy finals win.

4. Finals hardened play a Penrith/Storm who have not played for two weeks and are likely to start a bit slow.

5. Better chance of making the GF

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Replies

  • What about scenario 3 and 4?

  • History shows that you don't win the comp from outside the top 4, so if you seriously want to win you have to be top 4. Storm and Penrith are no guarantee to finish top two, they could come out of the Origin series busted and drop a few games. Any if we are serious about winning a comp, then we have to want one of those teams early in the finals, and beat them.

  • It's an interesting one. 
    In 2019 we finished 5th and smashed the Broncos (8th) in Week 1. As a reward for winning our first final we got the privilege of flying to Melbourne to take on the Storm at their home ground. If we'd have finished 6th we'd have beaten the Sharks in Week 1 and probably beaten Souths in Week 2. 
    In 2020 we finish 3rd and for that we were rewarded with yet another game against the Storm at their home ground (Suncorp due to Covid). But the following week we were gifted a home game against Souths. 
    For mine the home ground advantage is absolutely massive in Finals. We can't predict where other teams finish so best to finish Top 4 and get 2 bites at a home game. 

    • The other reasonable conclusion from what you have said is 

      Predict where Storm wil finish and make sure to avoid them in the first few weeks of finals

      • That would be ideal. So sick of meeting them in the finals. 

  • Of course you want to finish Top 4, it gives you the guaranteed 2nd chance. This blog was around last year as well.

    • How do you know the Panthers and Storm are going to rest their key players? That's a long stretch and highly unlikely
    • How are we going to be likely down on troops in Scenario 1 point 4.??
    • Resting your players increases the risk that when they come back the timing will be slightly off and you cannot afford that in finals games
    • Coming 5th doesn't guarantee you an easy win in week 1 of the finals by any stretch
    • You have to play the top teams at some stage in the finals, so why the hell wouldn't you want to play the best week 1 of the finals? Get a win and you get a week off and a home game week 3, not to mention the confidence boost that comes with it

     

    • Our finals campaign begins in round 20

      • Probably true, no better way to go into finals than with a tough run.

        • Yep, will need to get serious from that point. 

  • Win as many games as possible and get as high as possible. If we get to 3rd with no chance of dropping, then rest players but no point aiming for 5th , especially if we lose to 8th

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