Over the past 11 seasons, since the introduction of the McIntyre final-eight system, the average mark for the grand final-winning side defensively sits at 17.8 points conceded.
If we use this mark of 17.8 only St George Illawarra and the Eels have the goods defensively to win the title in 2010.
Last night's game has well and truly lifted my spirits. While I know the Cowboys are weak defensively, I think it once again showed that we're a totally different team in the dry than we are in the wet.
The other thing is people have rightly criticised our defence, but that ignores the fact that T will be back shortly and that North Queensland attacked pretty strongly. They can score points against any team, so its no insult that they ran in a few tries.
But when it gets down to it, as these stats show, the Eels and The Dragons have the best defences in the competition and its why I still expect to see these two teams in the Grand Final, draw permitting.
I don't think we'll see much fine-tuning with the side from here-on in. It's still not the side I'd have on the park, but I've made my peace with it. What's important, and is shown by the stats, is that our attack only really needs to be good enough to score three to four tries per match and we'll win most games. That was the case the last year - if you look at the big games we won that mattered - the Dragons first final and the Dogs semi-final, we didn't win those with attack, we won it with our defence. It will be that case again.
I don't think there is any side - bar the Dragons - we should not account for when we execute close to what we did last night. We'll remedy those defensive glitches pretty easily and that will be enough to beat most teams in this competition. The Dragons are another story. But let's cross that bridge when we come to it. The match against Penrith is going to be massive and I think it is going to be the match that truly shows us where we're at in this competition.
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In saying that, it's not the hard ones that have been our problem so far this year. Apart from our performances against the Dragons, we've conducted ourselves pretty well against the better teams. I really hope we don't live to regret going down to the Sharks twice, the Raiders and the Knights.
Let's keep in mind, that the Storm is still a better side than any of the sides running #2 down and we accounted for them pretty easily when we were still in luke warm form. We'll take enormous confidence out of that game and we'll keep getting better.
In form Tonga is in the top 3 centres in the game and any team will struggle to contain him. Wright isnt even a bush footy worthy centre and was defensively weak consistently. It was on the fringes that they broke up each time
Our edges will be much stronger with Tahu's return against the bulldogs. I do worry how we will shut down Jennings this week, and if Ben Smith is ok i'd almost go with him the in centres marking Jennings (we remember last year when Reddy was made to look terrible by Jennings)
I was always confident that our attack wall eventually fall into place, we have too much strike for it not too. I also agree that our defence will hold us in good stead for the do or die matches over the next few weeks.
Like it or not we are just not a ruthless team like the Dragons or Melbourne. Right or wrong we need something to play for, we do only what is needed to get us over the line. Now the stakes are higher watch us explode towards the finals.
One point I do take is that the draw, which some find daunting, is actually a blessing in disguise. Pretty much all the teams we will now face are higher on the ladder than we are (but in most cases only by a place or two) so by beating them will be more like securing 4 competition points because we'll ascend at their expense. 5 wins might get us into the 8 on competition points, but in all likelihood, our woeful for-and-against might shunt us out of the last couple of spots so to beat teams higher up than us is doubly important.
Furthermore, as every Eels fan has identified, we don't play well against teams we're expected to beat. The match against Penrith at CUA, on form, will be our second most difficult assignment this year behind playing the Dragons at Kogarah and I'm expecting the boys to lift as they did against the Storm.
Of course, a good result against the likes of Penrith, Tigers and Roosters will boost the side's confidence and we'll again be playing good football when it matters!
The great unknown is whether the team can pull together as they did last year and put in a string of consistent performances. A lot of things went right for us during the 'dream run' in 2009 and it isn't a given those factors will again be in evidence in 2010. Whilst I'm not as confident as you are Phil, I am cautiously optimistic.
For months now guys on this site have been beating the "we are a confidence team"
If this is the case then the team should take GREAT confidence from Mon nite and keep going forward.
I think Eugene said in another blog that the Panthers are due for a slump.
Their last 2 games have not been all that impressive - but they are still hanging tough.
Parra / Panthers are always good games and if we can get over the top of them we should make the 8 IMO
Another MUST win game
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