OK I'm the enternal optimist.
But are we still a "mathematical chance" of the 8? Lets say / dream we win all games is it still possible?
Does anyone have the maths, not the more realistic outcome but the likely maths?
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You have nicked @Parra Greg avatar
Oops! Changed now
Yes but no. Generally 12 wins is the barrier for the top 8. We'd have 11 if we won all our remaining games. While it's a remote mathematical possibility, that chance would probably be 0.01% given the teams above us and the number of wins they have. Only 8th spot at the moment is in single digit wins, the rest have 10 or more and should easily pass 12 wins.
Thanks for the analysis.
6 wins now 6 games to go, if they win all that's 12 wins and 30 points ( I don't think they will) mathematically it is possible but with thier for and agianst they would need 9th to be on 28 points which given the teams around the 8 also very unlikel. So in short if they win every game and team around the 8 lose the games we need them too yes but very very unlikely
Thanks.
Only team officially out are the titans
Short answer, no.
Long answer:
The bottom of the top 8 currently looks like this:
6th Broncos 26pts (Diff +78)
7th Sharks 26pts (Diff +23)
8th Dolphins 24pts (Diff +169)
9th Sea Eagles 24pts (Diff +22)
Given our diff is currently -147, we either need to bridge the gap of minus 170 points (i.e. winning by 28+ for 6 games straight) or end up 1 win in front of any of the teams listed above. Let's rule out closing the diff gap, and just focus on points.
Broncos play Rabbits (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Best case sceanrio they beat rabbits and lose every other game. Leaves them on 28pts. We can overtake them if we win all 6.
Sharks play Cowboys (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), Bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Best case scenario they beat Titans and lose all others. Leaves them on 30pts. We can't overtake them.
Dolphins play Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Best case scenario they only beat Broncos and Titans. Leaves them on 28pts. We can overtake them if we win all 6.
Sea Eagles play Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Best case scenario they lose all, but unlikely given they play Tigers. Leaves them on 26pts. We can overtake them if we win at least 5.
The key games would be Broncos v Dolphins and Dolphins v Sea Eagles. Someone has to win these, meaning they are getting further away from us.
Also, with the best case scenarios unfolding above, the Roosters could jump up the ladder from 10th.
In theory we could win all 6 and make it, but it's highly unlikely, our differential really kills us.
But...dare to dream Eels Guy!
We need to win all games and other results to go our Meelk
Nope