It is for the exact same reason, I will be betting on them this week. In both those years, while ultimately unsuccessful they turned around terrible runs of form and ended up going ever so close to winning the competitions and had I been wise enough to lay off the bets in both years I would have made significant profits.
When you look at how a football team is performing, you can pretty much break down performance attributes into two distinct categories. Game attributes and squad attributes. Game attributes are things that are related to the performance in any particular game. These include handling, penalties, kicking performance, attitude and intensity. Then you have squad attributes. These relate to a team's defensive capabilities, their point-scoring abilities, weak points, metre-making capacity, and mental factors like the ability to perform under pressure and lift when it is required.
Game attributes can change from week-to-week. They also result in form slumps or form runs. You're required to get the game attributes right, before the squad attributes really come into play. The reality is with the tightness of this competition, if you don't complete the necessary number of sets, if you don't have sufficient territorial opportunities, and if you give the opposition too much of the same, you will lose. The worse team in the competition will beat the best team in the competition every week when the poorer team gets these game attributes right, and the other doesn't.
However, come the business end of the season most teams have ironed out their chinks and are getting the game attributes right. And that's when it comes down to the abilities of your squad. Because you can't fake talent.
To date, Parramatta has simply not got their game attributes right. In fact they have been woeful in all of the areas I've mentioned. From giving away too many penalties, particularly early in the match, a lot of dropped ball and a generally poor kicking game. On the flipside, we've come up against teams who have gotten these attributes pretty right. The Dragons and Tigers were near faultless, Manly was also very good for 75 per cent of their match and the Sharks weren't great but were clearly better than us and totally dominated territory and opportunities. There is no doubt we should be sitting on four losses right now.
It is impossible to over-emphasise how being as poor as we have in these game fundamentals impacts every part of your game. When you give the opposition early ball, it severely impacts the effectiveness of your forward pack. Not only are they forced to do a lot of tackling, which saps their energy, but it generally means that you are trying to work the ball out of your own quarter against a set defensive line. It's near impossible for any pack in the competition to make metres under these conditions.
When your forwards aren't making metres and ours have been absolutely dominated in three of the four games, it's near impossible for your hookers and halves to be effective. Your hooker has no room to move. There isn't a lot of opportunity to run any play but for one-out hit-ups because you're forwards are never really set to play anything more complicated and it's impossible to make metres out of dummy half because you're always trying to take on defenders on the front foot with slow play-the-balls. Your halves don't have a lot of room to kick and again they are almost always facing a rushing defensive line, rather than a defensive line that is on its heels, which is when gaps open up. A number of posters have commented on the difference in line-speed, but again you can't have line speed if you don't get the fundamentals right first.
And if you're halves don't have opportunities, you can have the world's most brilliant outside backs and it will matter for naught because they will never see the ball in space.
Fortunately, it's not that difficult to get this part of your game back on track. One good solid game and suddenly things seem to fall back into place. It's worth asking why we're struggling to get these things right?
Firstly, I can't help but think that the club is at a very unsettled place right now. A number of key players are off-contract like Fuifui Moimoi, Feleti Mateo, Kris Keating, Kris Inu, Eric Grothe and so on. While some players, play out of their skin in a bid to prove their worth, for others its just a distraction that takes away from their game. To me, Feleti Mateo in particular is struggling with this. And I don't think the situation with Fuifui Moimoi being moved to the bench did anything for his frame of mind. We also have a number of new players. Justin Poore has to adapt to not playing alongside Michael Weyman and Timana Tahu needs to remember how to play League. Daniel Mortimer has to come to terms with his second-season and the fact that he's going to be a target, Jeff Robson knows his position is under threat and Kris Keating has not been given the opportunity to settle into any position.
If you look at the teams who are performing well, they don't have a lot of these distractions. The Dragons, Storm and Tigers all have very settled sides, with few new players in key positions and their stars with their futures safely secured.
Some of you will call these excuses, for me it's the reality of managing a team of people and trying to extract maximum performance from them. It's Daniel Anderson and Paul Osborne's challenge to get the place re-focused on its football and they look to have taken steps to do that this week with contract negotiations being put on pause and Daniel Anderson meeting individually with players to discuss their form. We'll see how successful their actions have been on Monday night.
So, now lets look at the squad attributes. I don't see any reason to be less confident than I was at the start of the season. I still think we are stronger up front than we were last year. Justin Poore has copped a lot of criticism from fans but I've seen enough from him that when given the opportunity to run against a less-set defensive line, he is going to be very effective. I don't see Poore as the type of prop who turns the tide of the match with big, rampaging charges but he's a front rower who will build on any momentum you give him. For that reason, he has to play alongside Fuifui Moimoi and I thought both those players in the starting side on Saturday worked well despite the lack of opportunity they had to build a roll. Cayless is also a prop who needs the side rolling forward, which gives him a chance to use his ball-skills, which is where his strengths lie. And Tim Mannah has lifted his form a notch over last year and is capable of starting if needed.
I feel once the team holds onto enough ball to give our props the chance to work into the game, you'll see a drastically different performance, and I go back to the Manly game, where I thought the Eels held the Manly pack despite being on the backfoot a lot of the time. There is no reason, we shouldn't be able to compete on a forward-basis better than we did last year.
Defensively, we've not lost any ground. The fact that we've managed to stay in games for as long as we have, has been a credit to our goal-line defence. And again, once we're not forced to work so hard, particularly early in the match it will get even better. Timana Tahu has been a weak spot but he'll get better but defensively this is remains a very effective unit.
Which brings us to our playmakers. This is obviously the area of weakness for the side. Right now, we're not scoring points because we have not had the opportunity to switch into broken-play football, which is where the likes of Hayne, Mateo and Mortimer shine. We're missing a dominant playmaker and the ability to score off structured plays. However, two things give me great hope. One, is the continual evolution of Jarryd Hayne as a ballplayer. What is going to make Hayne so dangerous is not just that he is an incredibly devastating runner of the ball but he is now a genuine distributor of the ball and arguably has one of the best cut-out passes in the game. He has already shown this year that he is going to be a better playmaker than I thought he was possible of.
The second, and obviously the most subjective element of this analysis, is I remain of the belief that Kris Keating is the missing element of the side. As was shown in the trials, he has the ability to create points and we desperately need a player in the halves who can do this to create space for Hayne and also Mateo. I don't care whether he's at six or seven, but I think this side will be a different team if Keating is given the chance to settle into the halves.
There is nothing wrong with the 19 players that have been running around for us in the opening four rounds. They just haven't played well, and as I've mentioned I think there have been off-field reasons that have contributed to this. I have faith in the people management skills of Anderson and Osborne to right the ship and help the players regather their confidence and get the errors and dumb football after their game. And once that happens, I think you'll see a very dramatic and very rapid turn-around.
I'm prepared to bet on it.
Replies
TABSportbet has them at $9
Betfair has them at $9.20
Sportingbet has them at $9
LUXBet has them at $9
IAS Bet has them at $10
Sportsbet has them at $10
and Sportsalive has them at $9
odds comparison website (way2bet)
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/19709/19710/41945/2010+NR...
They even have betting odds for future events such as the 2013 Rugby Union World Cup
I maintain only two teams can win the competition. I'm going to bet Parra now and then wait until Melbourne go through their Origin slump. Although, I've got to say I think they are exceptional value considering they've won 4 on the trot, accounted for the number two team and still have a quite a few younger players they're blooding into the team.
Its all a matter of time. The only worry is when. Lets hope the whole we are digging doesnt get deep enough that we put ourselves into last years situation where every game becomes a must win. we got the talent to win those kind of games, but just makes life more stressful for all invloved.
thats my tip
Thoughtful, reasoned, intelligent journalism.
But I see you are taking the plunge this week at 10 to 1 to you are a man of your convictions.
Whilst i think we will improve over the coming month, i still think we are 4-6 weeks from really 'clicking'
Im sure we'll nab probably 2, maybe 3, wins from the next 4 games, but still expect our odds to drop a little further, probably to about 15:1. Thats when i'll be heading down for a bet
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