Which players in the NRL do you see as being a value investment that you would like to see Parramatta sign?
Often when we discuss player signings, we talk about a player's rumoured market price and their current form. Is that how we should be approaching player recruitment?
Or are we simply gambling and hoping we strike gold?
The way I'm running this little experiment, is to see if we can tie the investment frameworks of renowned investors Warren Buffett and Ben Graham into the NRL player market.
The approach is simple: Great players at a fair price.
That doesn't mean you can't target marquee players, or you're trying to sign Cleary on $500K/year.
It means you're identifying players who have a strong foundation to their game, with a track record that you can quantify.
If you bought them now, for a 4 year contract, would you be happy to have them at the end of that contract, or would you theoretically be able to sell them at a profit?
I had this discussion yesterday regarding Matt Burton.
The market probably rates him at $1m/year, but is that his underlying value to a club? What about his performances at Canterbury make him a million dollar player?
Or would he present an overvalued asset? Would you draw the line at $700k/year as his track record indicates that's where he tops out?
Could you compare him to Dylan Brown in that we saw $1.4m/year as beyond his actual value and that his track record indicated that remaining at Parramatta would represent a poor investment?
Criteria:
- Player of your choosing at any level
- What the market rate is
- What you would pay and why
- Which players you think would be overvalued/undervalued
- How would this align with our need to recruit outside backs?
Replies
I don't think the current climate allows the purchase of great players, with a good history, at a fair price without "gambling and hoping we strike gold". It just doesn't seem realistic to me anymore. Tuuivati should be a value buy for us but to lock him in now (if we don't we will lose him) we would have to pay more than his history speaks for (overs) and hope he pans out.
We will be paying what FEELS like overs no matter who we sign if they are proven, but I don't know what overs is anymore. If Burton is a mil to all comers the goalposts have moved...Burton for a mil does not give me a chubby, but maybe it should
We also seem unable to move payments off the salary cap with backdoor shenanigans, so again, overs on the cap. The is no overs if you can make sneaky payments but our history makes that hard.
What's Trey Mooney on at Newc? I feel he may be an example of GoodPlayer Fair price
Edit: apologise for not following the criteria super...feel free to delete
Super this is the perfect time to have that analytics discussion.
If we are talking value and what we should be paying vs performance IMO this is where the mentioned comes into play.
Does Parra include analytics in its scouting discussion or have a person/s specifically hired for the mentioned task is the question I'd be asking.
This is an interesting conversation topic Super. It's also such a difficult thing to get right more often than not. If a player is a regular NRL player and looks like becoming a superstar, the competitive market typically prices them that way, meaning you have to pay overs to get them. If the player is not an NRL regular, let's say mainly playing NSW Cup, then you are gambling with untested talent, and I suspect will show hit and miss results.
To take an alternate angle, I'm going to use 3 modern era successful clubs as reference for how I think about a club getting good value:
Melbourne Storm - They have consistently been able to recruit fringe or journeyman players and turn them into high quality regular NRL players. They've surrounded the core group of superstars with this type of player to be a consistent top 4 team. To me, this comes down to excellent systems and coaching.
Sydney Roosters - They have been able to recruit quality players at will. Deep pockets and friends in high places obviously helps. Completely different approach to Melbourne, but nearly as successful.
Penrith Panthers - They've combined good coaching with a production line of high quality junior talent. Maybe they've been lucky with the quality players all coming through together, or maybe they've made their own luck, hard to say. It will be interesting to see how they go once Ivan moves on and the current playing group continues to break up. Either way, hard to argue with their record over the last 6 years.
You can say there are similarities in the Storm and Panthers methods, while the Roosters are the complete opposite. I believe we are most closely aligned with the Panthers system, but with the production line of juniors coming though still in the "let's hope they are good" basket.
So back to the original question...
If you are saying the timeline here is 4 years, then you probably want to avoid anyone over 30. My primary targets would be:
Halves - Lachlan Galvin and Isaiya Katoa. I'd pay $1M for each of these players as I think they are both worth well over that in 4 years. I don't think either are worth that now, maybe around $750k, but it won't be long and they'll both be worth over $1M. Combined with TDS and Iongi there is your spine sorted for the next decade.
Wing/centre - Jack Bostock. Probably worth $450k+ now, but I'd pay $600k for 4 years. JAC is our 2nd winger, and we fill the other 2 backline spots with juniors.
Props/Lock - The Couchman brothers. $800k for Toby, $700 for Ryan.
Edge - Noah Martin. $600k.
There's a start...
Perhaps we need to add a further category to the mix. And it's something Buffett has spoken about. A company with consistent management and strong fundamentals. Transfer that to an NRL player. It'd be a player with the fundamentals down who may be early in their career.
These are the types that have, rather than a massive highlights reel, shown themselves to be dependable, consistent and a strong performer. It's kind of how Melbourne have recruited. You get the guy who has the mentality of team first and develop him from there. That $150K basement price ends up building to $500K over the years.
A good example would be say Siosifa Talakai vs Jack Bostock. Ignore the age difference for now. Talakai has the highlight reel moments, the bath he has given opponents on occasion. But has also had the poor performances, the lack of defensive consistency that can hurt his own side. Bostock, while not have the flashy highlights, is a solid, consistent performer who has continued to improve and has since returned from an ACL.
I reckon both would command similar market prices if they hit the market. Say they're both looking at a $500K/Yr deal, I'd be taking Bostock as I'd see him undervalued. Just like you said. Probably worth $450K on the market, but you'd pay $600K.
One i will throw in is a player i wanted the eels to sign when he was off contract a couple of years ago before he signed with the dolphins, that's Jake Averillo.
I think he is a very gettable player, not a super star, but a reliable first grader that covers every position in the backline bar half-back but I think he has even played a few games there.
He would be a starting centre at the eels and I believe it's his best position, but can can cover 5/8, wing and fullback if needed. The market is a bit overinflated at the moment with new teams entering the comp so the expected price range of $500k-$600k would probably have to be a little higher.
I don't want to waste my time dreaming of decent signings because the current Parramatta office could sign a player if he was half price at Bunnings