It sounds alarming doesn’t it? The first time the Eels have lost three in a row since the early nineties, and the latest defeat a thumping, record-breaking massacre. It’s probably not surprising then - that Eels fans - fickle beasts at the best of times, have already started necking their season and have their pitchforks at the ready.
However, the reality is this season was always going to be a slow burn - and the Eel’s make or break section of the season will come in the second third between rounds 10 and 17.
Undoubtedly, we were given a tough start to the season by the draw makers. I personally believe in the end, getting some of these games out of the way while our combinations are still being put together, will be beneficial. But certainly if you look at the draw over the first nine games of 2012, I believe any reasonable form analyst would suggest that three wins from those matches would be a reasonable expectation. In my mind, if we manage to jag even four we’ll have done well.
We’ve been clear outsiders in our first three contests. All three of those teams are expected to finish above us on the ladder, and we’ve been down on man-power compared to our opponents. It would have been nice to have nicked one of those matches, but you wouldn’t have budgeted on it. This week, we approach our first real must win game - at home to the Panthers, it’s the kind of game you must win if you expect to figure in the finals. One from four, in my mind, would represent par for the course and you can probably stretch that out to one from five, given we face up to Manly the week after. In all likelihood, we’ll still be rooted to the bottom of the table, but it’s probably where a neutral observer would have expected us to be at that point.
The next four games are when things will start to get interesting. Away to Newcastle and Cronulla before home games against the Tigers and Bulldogs. We need to win two of those for three to hit my target for the first third of the season.
The second third of the competition is where the Eels need to make their run. Canberra (Away), a Bye, the Dragons (Away), Cronulla (Home), Bye, Souths (Home), Penrith (Away), Newcastle (Home). If Parramatta can take home twelve to fourteen points during that time - and it’s in the midst or Origin where it’s likely only Tim Mannah will be missing for us - then we’ll have brought ourselves back in contention for the top eight. Assuming we’re able to field close to our best side, there will be no excuses during that period. Beatable opponents, most of which will be impacted more by the representative season than will we. And this side will have had the opportunity to develop their combinations in the only real environment that you can do so, in the pressure cooker of the NRL.
If we manage that then it comes down to the run home. We have a pretty tough end to the season, but if we have had a good middle to our season, we should be full of confidence and at least in a position to contend for the finals. And that I believe is a reasonable expectation for this season.
I’ve spoken to enough Eels fans this year, to know that - to a person - we all knew this season was dependent on how many games we could keep both Sandow and Hayne on the paddock. It’s stupid then, given we haven’t yet had Hayne at our disposal, to write off the season at this point or to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Those blow-out results tell you very little - and I’m tipping North Queensland will put scores on plenty of teams this year (I think they’ll go close to a premiership). However, how a team bounces back from a result like that, that’s what tells you plenty. North Queensland themselves, as well as the Dragons, have also put in shockers this year only to bounce back with strong wins. If Parramatta dishes that same woeful level of performance up next week, at home against a team which does have a comparable roster, then we’ve certainly got cause for a deeper level of concern.
Even then, I still believe you’ve really got to wait until that middle section of the season has run its course before longer-term judgements can be made. If we’ve made no clear improvement by that stage, go and grab your pitchforks - you’ll at least have firm reason to storm the castle. Until then, and certainly until this next weekend, I’ll reserve my judgement.
Post Script
I try and approach posts like the above, with as much objectivity and purely rational analysis as I can, but I’ve got a few things to say over and above, which I want to separate out because they’re quite emotive and don’t fit with the above.
The all-too-predictable alarmist response from some parts of our supporter base, is rocket fuel that the mainstream press is certain to latch onto for at least the next week. Once again, we’re going to have untold pressure put on the entire club, and my biggest fear for this season - outside of injuries - has always been that without a couple of lucky early wins this year’s effort was going to get buried by unreasonable pressure before it even gets the chance to get any momentum up.
You can accuse me of blind optimism, or whatever you like. Yada, yada, yada. As far as I’m concerned if you’re that bent out of shape over our start to the year, you came into this season and particularly the last three games with unrealistic expectations. The reality is the Warriors game revealed glimpses of what this side can be if they’re at their best, and the Cowboys game showed what will happen to them if they don’t show up to every game willing to give 100 per cent. The same thing happens in the NRL every week. Now I was as disappointed as anyone with the performance on Saturday, but it seems there will also be that faction of supporters that can always manage to make me more embarrassed of us our fans than I am of the team. And on last week’s effort, that’s saying something.
If you’re one of those people here’s a free plug to someone’s else website.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Parramatta-Cobras-NRL-Eels-Defectors/395335043829163
Knock yourselves out.
Replies
As per usual Phil, I love reading your posts.
As I've said, I was pleased with what I saw against the Warriors and am just disappointed that we've been hit with so many injuries this early in the season.
Next week IS an important game. If the boys can't life after last week's performance, with a normal turn around in front of their own home crowd, then we're in a spot of bother I think.
You can't blame fans for having a whinge. Many of us have forked out our hard earned for season memberships etc only to turn up and watch the team play without any imagination.
My mates and I, along with the fans sitting around me, are not hoping for miracles we just want to see some footy!
Most of us enjoyed the warriors game even though parra lost - why? because at least that gave us something to cheer about in that game.
Kearney has to realise that the most important thing a coach can do is win the hearts and minds of players and fans, he aint gonna do that with the brand of football he is enforcing on this roster.
Against warriors there was 36 points put on us, that is nothing to get excited about, the following week 42 points, 78 points in 2 weeks, not being negative but there is no excuse for it, your right fans & members hard earned dollars for that rubbish to be dished out , & a coach that has the worst record in parra history as a coach , wining 6 out of 27 matches, there is no excuse, it is there in black & white and it is a sackable offence, to do other wise and extend kearney contract is taking the fans & member's for mugs!
We may not have been expected to beat a top side like the Cowboys but one would expect the team to have a dig! There are definitely problems beyond injuries and fledgling combinations. If you're 3 from 9 in a season, start booking a September vacation. So far it's 3 losses and 3 weeks worth of excuses. The Dogs are undefeated. There's nothing flash about their roster. Maybe it's their coach....
spot on, bulldogs roster on paper is not the best, just they have the best coach is the comp Hasler & we have the dud coach in the comp Kearney, the Cowboys are a good side, but that is not a excuse to pile 42 on us and the warriors the week before pile 36 points on us , we are minus 60 in for & against after round 3 only, will we break minus 100 before round 5, every way you look at it, there is no promising outlook!
Thanks for your post Phil - it gave me some perspective.
This Friday is a huge game I think. The Panthers are probably better than they look: close loss to the Dogs (who have since turned out to be a form team), strong win over the Chickens, and then yesterday's loss to a Souths team that played so well (especially in the first 30 mins) that they would have blown away any team in the comp.
Penrith deserve to be favourites on Friday. A win would be a huge boost for us. A close loss would give reason to hope. But if we get done by 20 then with Manly next week we're looking at a demoralising 0/5 and the pressure will be immense.
I do understand that there is cause for concern, especially after Saturday night's performance, but I have to be honest, I think the next couple of weeks will really show us where we are at.
As I said, I was pleased with the performance against the Warriors. There was no excuse for the game on Saturday night, but most teams have a least one shocker every season.
We've only had 3 rounds, no need to abandon ship yet.
I will never abandon ship, even though it is sinking. I will just drown and die wearing my Eels jersey.
Even if I wanted to I couldn't abandon ship. Its like being in an abusive relationship sometimes you want to leave but deep down you know you can't.
Its dissapointing thats all. Kearney is not a through and through eels man I know but he needs to start treating this as more than just a job. He needs to start showing some passion and right now because this isn't the Melbourne storm where you are immune from thing like the press and fans (because they only have about 20).
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