All 16clubs – or 15 this season due to the Storm’s demise – will break outthe crystal ball and attempt to predict exactly how many points it willtake to make the top eight. Will it be 28, 29 or 30? Or will it be aslow as 24? Or as high as 32?
Since the NRL formed in 1998 thelast side in the finals has posted somewhere between those last twofigures and once again this range looks likely to contain the magicnumber.
Last season Parramatta edged into the finals on 29competition points but the year before the Warriors needed 30. Back in2007, the Broncos posted just 24 to get a shot at glory.
The Storm’s salary cap issue throws up anomalies in the process, as clubs might get the chance to make it with a weaker record.
Withthe Storm’s win/loss record currently good enough to be a top-eightside, essentially the team running ‘ninth’ is in the finals zone. Lastseason team nine finished on 28 points, likewise in 2008.
In the five seasons between 2002 and 2006 the competition had 15 teams and the cut-off was 25, 28, 26, 28 and 28.
Perhaps2002’s 25 points is the one to monitor, as it was the season theBulldogs were stripped of their points late in the year, essentiallygiving ‘ninth-placed’ Canberra a shot.
A good rule of thumbfor clubs is splitting their season’s wins and losses down the middle.With two byes, 12 wins and 12 losses, a side would sit on 28competition points.
In the 12 NRL seasons to date, the finalteam into the finals has won more than they lost on four occasions,broke even on five occasions and limped in with a negative win/lossratio on three occasions.
So in 2010, the contenders need tolook at 28 as a minimum number, as anything less is going against theodds. (Certainly 26 is points is a chance to get in this season, butfor now, with 10 rounds to play, 28 is where it’s at.)
So we have that sorted… but can your club get to 28?
Dragonsfans, relax. With a bye to come you have hit the magic number and willbe in the finals in 2010. Everyone else has some work to do.
The Panthers will need to win two of their last 10. Our verdict: They’re in. In fact they’ll do it on their ear, with seven of their 10 matches against teams outside the current top eight.
Wests Tigers are looking at four wins from their final 10 matches. Our verdict: Shouldbe certainties. With matches against a weakened Broncos and home gamesagainst the Sharks, Cowboys and poor-travelling Titans, the Tigersshould get the job done. They might want to get it done soon, though,as the last five rounds are tough.
The Titans, with a bye in hand coming this week, only need to win three of their final nine to hit the magic number. Our verdict: Willlimp in. The Titans face a tough stretch of games after the bye andcould easily lose their next three, four or five games. They should begood enough to beat the Cowboys and Sharks but need to jag another winto be safe.
South Sydney, with the bye this week, will need to look at winning four of their last nine to be safe. Our verdict: It’sthere for the taking but implosion is also possible. The side plays theDragons twice, plus the Panthers, Wests Tigers and Melbourne inMelbourne. The next five games are crucial, first at the SFS againstthe Roosters and then four straight at ANZ Stadium. One of the toughestruns home.
Brisbane, just like Souths will need to win four of their last nine, as they have a bye in Round 18. Our verdict: Doable– and likely. The Broncos have six opponents outside the current topeight to deal with. With this in mind their amazing finals streakshould continue to a 19th consecutive year. Any less would now be afailure.
Manly also enter the run home needing four of their last nine games thanks to the bye this week. Our verdict: Countthem in. In won’t be a breeze but with home matches against Canberra,the Warriors and Bulldogs, plus games against the Sharks, Knights andRoosters, the Sea Eagles should cruise into the finals.
The Roosters, the most inconsistent team in the NRL, need to split their remaining 10 games to have a shot. Five from 10 is their aim. Our verdict:On the fence. They CAN do it, as five of the matches are against sidesoutside the eight, but there is little margin for error. This week’sOrigin-depleted game against the Raiders is crucial to their hopes.
The Warriors also need five from the last 10 rounds to get a sniff. Our verdict: Probablynot – but don’t write them off. This is probably a little contentious,as the side is certainly capable of getting five more wins – but theirtravel form is still poor and they’ll need at least one away game inthe run home. Must beat the Hayne-less Eels this weekend.
Parramatta,last season’s fairytale, might need to write another one soon. They arefacing the prospect of needing six wins from their 10 remaining games. Our verdict: Itcan be done but lightning is unlikely to strike twice. Unless JarrydHayne explodes into form and Daniel Mortimer shakes off his second-yearsyndrome funk, the Eels are dead and buried. Only four of their gamesare against non top-eight sides, with two against the Warriors who areninth.
Newcastle enter the bye knowing they will still need to win six of their last nine matches to hit the magic number. Our verdict:Still in it, but barely. A reasonable draw gives them a chance toperform a mini-miracle. They need to start with three more in a row,which would make it five on the trot. If they negotiate the Sharks,Raiders and Cowboys they then get Manly at home. Win that and they pushinto the Bulldogs and Warriors. The final three, Broncos, Dragons andStorm might just kill them off, even if they are beating the odds.
Canberra did not want to lose last night, as now they need to win seven from 10. Our verdict: Nope,not this year. Even with a surge in form to snap a current three-matchlosing streak, the Raiders just won’t get there. At best, they’ll winfive more.
Cronulla’s golden-point heroics last weekend makes their task the same as the Raiders. They need seven from 10 games. Our verdict:Sorry Shire fans. While they will jag another win here or there, theycannot possibly get seven, not with this roster. Five would be amiracle.
The Bulldogs still have that famous mathematical chance, needing eight from 10 to morph into this year’s Eels. Our verdict: Notdead yet. That might sound far-fetched but the draw for the Bulldogsisn’t awful and they still have talent in the squad. The next month isobviously critical, where they take on Cronulla, Melbourne, theRoosters and Parramatta. If they jag those and hit the Rabbitohs on afive-match run, they could be on the charge. The Knights, Raiders andCowboys then await – meaning they could hit 28 with two rounds tospare. They finish with the Panthers and Sea Eagles.
Last and actually least is the Cowboys, who after the bye into account need to win eight of their last nine matches. Our verdict: Keepdreaming. Even with a reasonably easy draw the Cowboys are a million toone. Time to start planning their end-of-season trip!
Competition points required to make finals:
1998 – 26 points: 13 wins, 11 losses.
1999 – 32 points: 13 wins, 9 losses, 2 draws, 2 byes.
2000 – 26 points: 13 wins, 13 losses.
2001 – 26 points: 12 wins, 12 losses, 2 draws.
2002 – 25 points: 10 wins, 13 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes.
2003 – 28 points: 12 wins, 12 losses, 2 byes.
2004 – 26 points: 11 wins, 13 losses, 2 byes.
2005 – 28 points: 12 wins, 12 losses, 2 byes.
2006 – 28 points: 12 wins, 12 losses, 2 byes.
2007 – 24 points: 11 wins, 13 losses, 1 bye.
2008 – 30 points: 13 wins, 11 losses, 2 byes.
2009 – 29 points: 12 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes.
so we pretty much need to win 6 out of our last 10, i hate to say it but i really doubt it's possible for us we need to recruit well and look to make something out of 2011.
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we will lose to warriors ,win the next 4 or 5 ,lose 2 more then get a run into the finals , but i would be putting tooth picks into the eyes of the players and forcing them to watch 09 repeatedly every night till the GF . As well as HYPNOSIS
That makes 7 from 10 the target.
Nothing is immpossible - but this is highly improbable.
A bit of bad form of late and we are gone?
WE WILL MAKE THE 8 BOOK IT AND WE WILL GET OUR ACT TOGETHER AND GIVE THE PREMIERSHIP A SHAKE.
IF WE MAKE THE FINAL WE WILL WIN IT SIMPLE AS THAT.................................GETTING THERE IS THE HARD PART.