St George Illawarra v Parramatta, NRL Fourth Qualifying Final (1 v 8)

By Christopher Boydfoxsports.com.auSeptember 10, 2009Foxsports.com.au brings you everything you need to know - and a few things you don't - about Sunday's fourth qualifying final between St George Illawarra and Parramatta.WHAT, WHERE & WHEN:Fourth qualifying final, WIN Jubilee Stadium, Sunday, 4pm (EST)FORM GUIDE (past five matches):WLLLW (Dragons); WWWWL (Eels)THE NEXT STEP:Winners: A week's rest for St George Illawarra, or Parramatta will live to fight another day.Losers: The Dragons will have to regroup in week two. The Eels' fairy tale will be over.TALE OF THE TAPE:That St George Illawarra enter this game as strong favourites is quite remarkable given their puttering finish to the season and Parramatta's rapid rise. Whether last week's trouncing was the loss the Eels had to have remains to be seen, but the restoration of the Dragons' confidence is of greater concern for Parramatta. The minor premiers have the advantage of Wayne Bennett at the helm, a man who has featured in finals football for almost as long as Jarryd Hayne has been born. Parramatta improved in each and every one of their seven successive wins leading up to round 26, but recapturing that form against the best defensive team in the competition will not be an easy task. They'll have to overturn an aggregate that has seen the Dragons outscore them 99-22 in their previous three meetings. The return of backrower Nathan Hindmarsh from injury is a boost for the visitors. He is the glue of the Parramatta defence, and his presence will have Eels fans optimistic about replicating the Warriors' efforts of 2008 in knocking off minor premiers Melbourne Storm. But the Dragons now hold the psychological edge and their decision to retain this fixture at WIN Jubilee Oval will only add to their resolve.KEY MEN:Ben Creagh (Dragons): Built like a train, Creagh runs just as straight and hard. His backrow battle with Eels stalwart Nathan Hindmarsh will be critical.Daniel Mortimer (Eels): Mortimer has played second-fiddle to Jarryd Hayne, but his role is no less important. The Eels' chances hinge firmly on his ability to adapt quickly to finals football.IS STAT RIGHT?Last year marked the first time since the introduction of the McIntyre System, in 1999, that the eighth-placed team had beaten the first-placed team. St George Illawarra are happy in Kogarah, having won five of their six matches at WIN Jubilee Oval this season, while Parramatta have won only 11 of their 42 matches at the venue. The Eels last won at the stadium in 1997.MATCH ODDS:St George Illawarra $1.50, Parramatta $2.50 (TAB Sportsbet; 10/9)LAURIE DALEY SAYS:"It will be interesting to see whether the Dragons can replicate their performance from Friday night, given that they were pretty well ready to go for that one. They were fired up, having lost three games in a row, and I think they were preparing like it was a grand final. Having said that, they could be left a bit flat emotionally from that win. I still think they will get away with a victory against Parramatta, but I don’t think it’ll be by as big a scoreline as Friday. Parramatta have got a lot to prove, and their confidence would have been dented. The Eels are certainly capable, especially with Jarryd Hayne's special run of form. You’d never right Parramatta off, but I think the Dragons might have mentally scarred them after that victory last week."PREDICTION:Dragons by 14 points

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St George Illawarra v Parramatta, NRL Fourth Qualifying Final (1 v 8)

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