Eels Blogs

Three rounds. Fourteen points conceded. Our greatest defensive start ever.  Statistically. In seventy four years. Even Gibson may feel some pride looking down from the heavens.

Against our old foe at Bankwest, unsurprisingly, we’re favourites $1.77 to $2.06 with Sportsbet, at the time of writing this. However, the Sea Eagles are a dangerous team if they get a roll on, and they are not to be underestimated. In the last six games, since 2017, both teams have traded blows WLWLW with the Eels winning the last at Bankwest, in R25 last year, 32-16.

Undoubtedly, this Eels’ team is the most talented we have had for quite some time. And it’s a sinful rarity we’re at the top of the table going into round four. It was a great team performance last week, as was Manly’s. In my view, Dylan Brown and Nuikore had the best games of their careers. Dylan’s dangerous running game was on show to supplement his clever kicking game and great cover defence that was on show, again. However, ultimately, all that means nothing. Yet. The job’s not done.

It isn’t when everything is in its favour that defines a team.The Greatest Of All Time, Muhammad Ali, the then undefeated lineal champion lost the 1971 Greatest Fight Of The Century,  in a marathon 15 rounds.  Smokin' Joe  pulversied him. Knocked him down to the canvas in the final round. But, Ali got up. He didn't surrender. And later, he exacted revenge, vaquishing Smokin' Joe, to win the war, despite the huge price paid. 

 Now, back to this game and five points:

 And, Let’s Talk History Again: 3-0

It’s the best start in three decades. Since 1993.

Last year, we started 2-0. We’ve already improved on that. Last year, we failed to win an away game against a top-eight team. We’ve probably already bettered that, assuming the Broncos eventually become a top eight team (judging on recent results that’s not a given).

But, how much has our defence improved, and where do we sit in the pecking order?

Have we really turned a new leaf? If our defence has really improved, we’re a chance of being a more serious footy team. Arthur admits the Eels have focused on defence in the off-season and the runs are on the board, so far. The eyeball test, shows hope. Yet, experience reigns it getting carried away.

Really, it’s too early to tell, as we have had an unprecedented high of possession averaging 60%, which is astronomical, possibly exaggerating our strengths and concealing our weaknesses. We also haven't played to the best of our ability which is a good sign since we're still winning. Last week, I felt Moses', Waqa and Blake's running games and strengths weren't utilised to their fullest.

Statistics, however, right now, are very kind to us. They showing remarkable improvement across almost every single area of play, both attack and defensively. We’re also still offload kings.

Last year, we were missed tackle champions. We ranked third for most missed tackles. In contrast, Manly conceded the least missed tackles last year and this year to date (16). Our performances in 2019 were also in stark contrast to other top teams: Roosters (13, fourth best), Storm (15), Raiders (10th), Souths (12), Manly (16), all of whom were relatively frugile at conceding missed tackles. This year, we’ve improved dramatically to be sitting in 14th position: third best. Good effort to date.

Last year, we conceded more missed tackles than our opposition in 20 of 26 matches, even whilst winning 51-6 with a glut of possession and a low tackle count. That was a red flag, in hindsight, that I did point out at the time was concerning. Also, in the two games we played Manly last year, we conceded 86-39 missed tackles, despite winning 1 of 2 games.

This year, so far, in contrast, we have missed less tackles than our opposition in all three games. A great sign. Let’s see if that continues this week, against a talented defensive and offensive Manly team.

One more thing: Last year also offers another fore-warning. After three rounds we also started reasonably well defensively (81 v 84 missed tackles to the opposition, in comparison to this year 76 v 122 missed tackles) before the slippery slope. We also played eventual premiers Roosters in R3, in 2019, to emphasis that.  This year, we’ve had a glut of possession against teams such as the Broncos and Titans (who miss tackles for fun) and haven’t had to play the Roosters early on.

Bottom line, we need to maintain the rage. 

Last night, the Roosters forewarned us of another point: they’re still heavyweight punchers. A benchmark. Their 59-0 demolition of the Broncos at Suncorp, was the Broncos biggest defeat in their proud history. They bettered our humiliation of the Broncos. So, it’s difficult to ascertain how much we can take from our Broncos win; though the Broncos looks promising against Souths and Cowboys to start 2-0. Before they became punching bag practice.

Assuming the Roosters will be a benchmark again, which seems to have some merit, it’s interesting to compare both the Eels and their performance against the Broncos in successive rounds.

Ironically, the Roosters ended the game with the similar amount of possession to us (over 60%) but with more sets completed, probably due to our offloading, second phase play, and want to keep passing the ball around (sometimes causing sideways crab movements). The Roosters are more likely to play direct and at speed. Our play the balls are rarely quicker than the opposition. Both teams also made similar yardage (2316 v 2335) which is a promising sign. 

However, in a nutshell: the Roosters outdid us both in attack and defence against the Broncos.The Roosters also have one of the best ratios of missed tackles to total tackles (8.3%), not far behind the Storm (7.9%). We were ordinary last year dwelling in the basement levels (10.6%), even worse than the Titans (9.6%), which is why teams counted on us cracking if enough pressure was applied. It’s improved this year at 9.2%, but that still suggests we may be vulnerable in a pressure cooker, facing a war cry.

Winning the ruck war: keys to the kingdom

Manly's middle will need to be stopped, especially since the ruck is now on steroids with the new changes. Fonua-Blake, Taupau, Sean Keppie and big bodied Paseka provide plenty of thrust through the middle. Also, if Levi plays to his ability he could pose some headaches. I vividly remember Newcastle R7 Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle where he made some incisive runs that contributed to our demise. Manly may have lost a bit of creativity following Api’s departure (Panthers) and their dummy half runs have declined in contrast to the Eels. Last year, Manly made an average of 11.5 dummy half runs (5th). This year they’ve dropped to 8.3pg (14th). The Eels on the other hand have improved their dummy half running from 7.4pg (15^th) to 10.3pg (8th) which is pleasing. Hopefully, we’ll see Mahoney’s running game develop. I'd also like to see Moses' acceleration taken advantage of the more open fractured ruck now at play. 

It brings me to another point. Are we playing more direct: straighter?

The eyeball test, the gut, says we’re playing more direct, at speed, than we have in the past. Other than a large increase in dummy half running there’s been a significant increase in running metres, runs, and decoy runs (as shown in the above stats) to suggest we're running straighter and less sideways. It helped apply pressure on the under-seige Broncos defence and score easier in the red zone; something we've struggled with.

And then there's: The Turbo Factor

There are plenty of dangermen on both sides, yet, Trbovejic is probably the biggest name on the ground. Last week Tom was scoring, setting up tries and plays on all sides of the field. Left, Right, through the middle or in the air. If Manly get a roll on through the middle, it’s going to make in nigh impossible to stop him from doing some damage. Remember round 18, last year. And he has plenty of support in the middle and edges.

Interestingly, he’s never beaten the Eels away from Brookvale in his career. 

Last, and probably least: Ben Cummins

Cummins has been around for a long time.  Oddly though, he last refereed an Eels v Manly match four years ago, back in 2016, and he’s only refereed two Eels-Manly matches between  2015-2016, where we won both. Other than a propensity for sin-binning (and sometimes the wrong player) his influence is probably a flick of the coin and dependant on which team agitates him more. Last night, true to form: he sin-binned someone. Let's hope we keep a full compliment tomorrow.

In summary, we need to win this to continue to build momentum and keep toughening up, not just for the statistical records. Admitedly, there’s been an overdose of stats here to try and understand where we really sit. But, stats are retrospective, and occasionally interesting to look at. And like bikinis, they also conceal the most important parts. What happens on the day. The war zone in the middle. The guys putting their bodies on the line creating history. We’re flying high right now. But, it’s when we’re on the canvas, after being knocked down, under pressure, against the wall, without little possession that we’ll find the heart of this team or whether we still have a glass jaw when hit hard.

The real question is: how will history remember this side? The next step starts late tomorrow.