Dragons are favourites with sportsbet $1.84 to $1.97 at the time of writing this.
Good
The Eels are a better day performer than the dragons (6W-2L to 2W-6L) and a very good record against the Dragons in the last almost six years, losing only once; but we haven’t played at this ground in Kogarah, since 2012.
The Eels are in better form that the Dragons, and better statistically than them, in most areas in 2019. But on paper they have arguably, more class or pedigree, and arguably a stronger forward pack, so I would not be surprised if they put up a strong showing, and come out firing.
Michael Jennings, back, should help stiffen our edge defence if he stays in 2019 form.
Quite the opposite to last year (and much of this decade) the Eels can score tries this year (3rd best). Moses, Gutherson, Sivo, Pualo, Lane, the Browns, that's the reason we look finals bound. As well as Moses' goal kicking this year. But we're not home yet.
Bad
Refs. We traditionally struggle and Dragons prosper under Ashleigh Klein more than us.
Ferguson is still away. If you look at the stats. He adds pedigree to our team. Without him we don't have any starting Origin players, albeit Gutherson is on standby. Dragons on the other hand have the edge with pedigree and rep players, with Widdop, Hunt, Vaughan, Frizell, and comapny.
Ugly
We are a rabble away from Bankwest, winning only 1 match away from Bankwest since R6. At Darwin, a home game.
We have a bad record at Kogarah. Losing 6/7; including two 30-0 & a 37-0 belting. We last won in Sept 2009, in a quarter final. We've never won in a regular season.
Futhermore, we make errors at critical times (4th worst for total errors v Dragons 13th). We lose composure when we are under pressure. And panic at times with last tackle options. Moses showed a bit of panic there last week.And concede a lot of stripped ball.
Defence. Always defence. We have one of, if not the softest middle defence, and still let in soft tries on our goal-line. We always seem to have excuses for it. Somehow the Dragons have managed to have even worse defence this year.
Sometimes we get bashed. And lose the battle of the collisions. Despite, Nathan Brown helps our cause. Paulo occasionally puts on a big bit, too, but he has lateral defence problems.
After Manly bashed us at Lottoland, Martin Taupau noted in a radio interview by 2GB, that Manly deliberately targetted the Eels big guys who were poor lateral defenders.
So is it poor attitude, culture or lack of physical ability, fitness, poor training methods and discipline, lack of focus, lack of physical strength, or power, or...?
Reed Mahoney, admitted a few days ago “he hasn’t been himself lately”. Though he’s aggressive and energetic adding to our line speed but tackles the most, misses a lot, and doesn't run enough. Barely takes on the line or troubles the defence. He has potential, but why is his game developing as such? McInnes tackles the most in his team, too. However, he runs; and does everything else Mahoney doesn't. And has a better kicking game.
The dangermen to us are obvious. Widdop. Ben Hunt's right edge, with Fitzell, Aitken and new boy Saab, coupled with a floating Norman or Widdop. Hunt could cause issues through the middle, too. It's a case of which one creates the opportunities on the day.
With our middle defence being so soft, McInnes and Hunt are prime candidates to cause us headaches. Watch for a short ball to Vaughan on the line - for a try. Or even Tariq Sims. Sim short kicking games of Hunt and Widdop are especially dangerous, close to the line.
It's almost inevitable a forward and winger(s) will score tries I'm this game.
Bottom line:
Last week I predicted high scoring match over 40 and with likelihood of a lot of twists and turns. Unfortunately, we got more than we bargained for.
We can expect another fairly high scoring affair at around the 40 points in total mark (37.6 points per game); unless it rains which it might. And that will not help the Eels. I expect an early onslaught from one team, probably the Dragons, and a fightback with a few twists and turns as well.
Don't expect much help from the refs this week. Expect a few close contentious calls to go against us, in bad times, before the refs start evening up the penalty count.
This is a danger game for us, we should win and outscore the Saints, but an hearbreaking upset may be on the cards, if St George play to the best of their full-strength ability, and we have a typical away game "off day". Two big Ifs.
The rain is a factor. If it rains heavily, the Dragons' cause will be assisted by the Gods and the score-line will be lowered.
The big question is: will we man up and win an important game or belly up like we have at every game, bar one game, not at Bankwest?
Replies
Slugg, yes good point. We're sixth. We're not inconsistent. You could argue we're too consistent.
Since R6, we win at Bankwest, we lose when we're not at Bankwest - typically. Consistent pattern.
I hope we're inconsistent tommorrow. Lol
Slugg, in terms of win-loss ratios yes.
I still would like us to start winning games away from home; and Bankwest.
That's just me, mate. I don't like us getting bashed away from home or Bankwest, and until we aim up away, we are a pretty team, a good team on their day, but not a serious team.
Sivo playing on the left will be important for the Eels on Sunday given the Dragons give away their highest percentage of points on their right edge.
I hope you're right Mick. Our middle, ruck defence would be one of the worst in the comp, especially on an off-day.
And on the line, I will be surprised if Vaughan, McInnes, or even Tariq Sims, or a forward doesn't score.
Defence wise the Dragons are as soft as the Eels giving away probably the same amount of tries through the middle. The other thing that I would add is that our middle defence is better now with N Brown and Evans their.
Talk about inconsistency in the Eels when comparing them with the Dragons is a bit rich. The Eels have not been out of the eight since the season began, the Drsgons are sitting near the bottom.
Their defence is worse than ours conceding far more points than us. Their forwards are very good in attack but not so good in defence.
Given they are out of the semifinals and have nothing to play for the only thing they have going for them is their home ground. Will that be enough?
John, In the blog I was implying we consistently lose outside of Bankwest, we've won one outside of Banwest since R6 (at Darwin home game).
We're not in the top eight because of our great defence. It's because of our great attack. If our attack were as bad as last year, I reckon we'd be in the bottom four now.
And yes our defence has improved a bit (Nathan Brown has been a factored). It's now 5th worst instead of 3rd worst. And the Dragons are 2nd worst.
Still, I would like to see our defence improve. And it could be a problem at times v the Dragons, too - if they play to the best of their ability, and we're off.
No team in 30 years, since 1990, has won a grand final with as bad defence as us. Something like 75% are top 2 defences (and mostly top.1). The Tigers were the worst with 10th worst in defence, but were 2nd best in attack. It's an outlier though. How often are the Tigers up there with the best?
The top most consistent teams of every decade, that win the most games, have been the no.1 defensive team mostly, and sometimes the no.2 team (twice, by a small fraction). In my mind that's 111years of a pretty strong RL evidence that defence is important for consistency - long term.
Good response HOE as usual but I feel you may have over egged my comments. I was talking about Sunday’s game not winning the GF.
I agree with you we need to do a lot to bolster our defence before we are a serious challenger for the GF and that can only happen over the off season with a change of personnel.
We can work with who we have now and get a marginal improvement but I feel at the moment that to make a significant change we need a change to the roster and how we do defence training.
John Eel, Agreed mate. You gave a good response as well mate. Yeah, you're right: I probably over egged, over baked, your comment.
Let's just hope we're "on" tomorrow and outscore the Saints. We should, yet, I wouldn't be surprised if Saints bash us too and put some points on us.
Something I read on another site. A lot has been said regarding us not having beaten the Dragons at Jubilee since 2009. That is correct but what has not been said is that we have not played at Jubilee since 2012.
Also I think that they have only beaten us once in the last 10 games. Could be wrong on this last point so if I am I stand corrected.
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