Eels Blogs

First versus third-last, One versus Fifteen, doesn't look like a fair fight.

The Eels are on a five-match losing streak. The worst since 2018. In contrast, the Sharks have won 9 from the last 11. 

But last round, both teams lost big and conceded 42 points. That spells trouble for the Eels. The Sharks will be looking to bounceback in emphatic style mark after being given an almighty 42-0 spanking by the Panthers.

But The Messiah and The King return this week. Meanwhile, the Sharks are missing General Hynes and Workhorse Cameron McInnes, two key cogs whilst we're missing HopGod. Is there hope? The bookmakers certainly think so. They changed their tune once team lists were announced, and the Eels will start as favorites. Just what the doctor ordered. Expectations and the Eels haven't had the best of relationships for four decades.

Unlike Barrett and the playing group, in theory, most Eels fans on this site have practically given up on playing finals this year.

Barrett's 31% coaching record after five seasons doesn't inspire much hope of sudden tactical genius that will suddenly change the course of the ship, like Anderson did back in 2009 when in round 19 the then third-last Eels threw the old failing gameplan out the window and decided to play footy. They won the next seven straight on their unlikely march to the grand final. Something we haven't done since. Fifteen years later. To be fair, we don't have a Hayne in our ranks. Apologies to Blaize and Isaac (and a no thank you on Blake Green).

Still, Barrett has time to see what he can do to create significant change and can thanks the heavens for the return of the Messiah and The Energizer.

For now, we are stuck in Dante's Inferno. Free-falling in a rut from hell.

Teams

Time: Thursday, 7:50pm, 30 May 2024
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Odds: Eels are favourites $1.67 - $2.21 (earlier in the week Sharks were favorites before team lists)
Weather: Mostly clear, winds 15kmh
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Grant Atkins 

Eels: 1. Clinton "King" Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan "Prince" Brown 7. Mitchell "The Messiah" Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Joe Ofahengaue 14. Blaize Talagi 15. Shaun Lane 16. Makahesi Makatoa 17. Wiremu Greig 18. Daejarn Asi 19. Morgan Harper 20. Joey Lussick 21. Ryan Matterson 22. Luca Moretti

Caretaker coach: Trent Barrett

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Thomas Hazelton 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Jack Williams 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Toby Rudolf 16. Royce Hunt 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Mawene Hiroti 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha 20. Billy Burns 21. Niwhai Puru 22. Jayden Berrell

Head coach: Craig Fitzgibbon

Notes

For the Eels, two mammoth ins - No.7 Mitchell Moses and No.1 Clint Gutherson. Dylan shifts back into a more comfortable role where hopefully we'll see more of his running and attacking game with less pressure on him to do it all.

It's been a long wait, since round three, when The Messiah, and the Prince were all sitting at the table, missing only HopGod.

Will Penisini also returns (from an infection).

Interestingly, Barrett has done an Arthur and shifted Blaize Talagi back to the bench seemingly hinting at the Arthurian x-factor role in the middle or wherever is needed - not completely different to what Cobbo is to Slater's Queensland off the bench.

Gus Gould on today's Six Tackles mentioned an interesting stat. 84% of teams that lost an outside back before half-time (say to a HIA or injury), ended up losing. 

Origin bound lock J’maine Hopgood is a huge loss for the Eels. Joe Ofahenague starts at lock with Matterson seemingly not quite right and clear of all his ailments and ill health. Wiremu Greig also returns to the side, which is a good sign for the young man with potential. But, it's countered by the Sharks' Origin-bound lock Cameron McInnes replaced by Jack Williams.

Brendan Hands replaces Joey Lussick in the No.9, who drops out of the 17. Lussick playing 80 was an obvious issue for the Eels, but now the burdensome task is on Hands. With Talagi on the bench there isn't any room for Lussick or relief rake like many good teams use.

For the Sharks, No.7 Nicho Hynes is a big out. The Braydon Trindall replaces who had been sideliness for his off-field peccadillos. Toby Rudolf returns off the bench (return from knee injury).

Stat Attack; Heart-Attack material

• The Eels have won 3 of the last 11 clashes against the Sharks (27.3%).
• The Eels are on five-straight losses. The worst run since 2018.
• Trent Barrett has won 1 from his last 10 games as a head coach.
• The Eels have the second-worst defence, the Sharks have the second-best.
• The Eels have conceded at least 30 points in six of their past seven games.
• Since, mid-2023 (after R17), the Eels have won 6 from the last 19 (31.6%) conceding 31.5 points per game on average.
• That's worse than the Eels worst defensive year in NRL history (conceding 30.83pg in 2013) and worst than all our other recent spoons year (28.08pg in 2012 and 22.92pg in 2018).
• The Eels will welcome the two big ins. They lost 7 of the last 8 without Moses, and the last 13 straight without Gutherson. The Eels have never won a game without Moses and Gutherson, losing 4/4, conceding on average 41.2 points per game (average score 14.4-41.2pg).
• Sharks winger Sione Katoa will make his 100th NRL appearance.
• Eels winger Maika Sivo has scored 11 tries in his past 7 games.
• Eels youngster Blaize Talagi has scored a try in three consecutive games.

A Commbank Slump

The Eels are going throught their worst nine-game trot at Commbank since the 2019 opening, five years ago.

They have won 5 from their last 9 (55.6%) av score 20.4 - 24.8.

The Sharks have won their last 3 games at CommBank Stadium.

The Eels lost the last meet versus the Sharks at Commbank 30-26 last year (R2, 2023, refer picture above).

And that with both Moses and Gutherson playing, and the Sharks missing Hynes. Let's move on.

Last week: Round 12

From FoxSport Lab

Eels lost 42-26 to the last placed Souths (7-5 tries); half-time South 22-12

• Souths had most stats go their way: more possession (54%-46%), better completion rates 33/38 (87%) to Eels 25/36 (69%), more opportunities in Eels' red zone (46-32 tackles in Opp. 20m), less missed tackles (35-31) but also made far less tackles (242-331), less errors (12-15), forced more dropouts (2-0), awarded more penalties (7-5)
• Eels had only a few stats go their way: They won set restarts (2-1); Eels' linespeed was actually far quicker than Souths (7.2 - 5.7 using nrl.com stats)
• Split: Offloads (10-10), Territory (50%) Linebreaks (5-5)

Sharks lost 42-0 against the reigning Premiers (7 -0 tries); half time 28-0

• Panthers had lion's share of possesion (62%-38%), territory (72%-28%), far more opportunities in red zone (55-17 tackles), made almost double run metres (1778m-851m), more than double tackle busts (48-21), linebreaks (5-1), offloads (12-3), completions (42/48 88% to 23/32, 72%), more set restarts (4-2), less missed tackles (21-48), far less errors (9-15), forced more dropouts (5-5).
• Sharks were worse in every department. The only good news for them was the final siren to end the game.
• Split: Penalties (3-3).

Comparision: R11 v R12

Below is just a brief comparison of Barrett's first (R12) versus Arthur's last game as head coach (R11).

R12: Eels v Souths (L42-26). Barrett's first game as caretaker.

R11: Eels v Storm (L48-16). Arthur's last game as head coach.

We can see that under Barrett the Eels still continued on in their self-sabotaging ways, Ben-Sanderson Leaving Las Vegas style. This despite playing the last-placed team in the competion that had only won two games all year and lost 10 from their last 12. The Eels kept shooting themselves in the foot and handing Souths opportunity after opportunity with flimsy defence - much like Souths who have the worst defence in the competition.

Souths didn't need much eyes-up footy or trick plays to get to 22-0 after 26 minutes.

All Souths needed to do was hang on to the ball, run hard in the sets, kick chase well (much better than ours) pressure us and run straight through us.

Unlike Arthur, who persisted with Lussick for 80, Barrett quickly replaced Lussick in the 32' when Souths had all the momentum leading 22-6 and things were looking ugly.

Again around the 49th (a little later in R12) we saw the momentum shift away from the Eels.

But there was more counter-punch with the Eels in R12. And linespeed was far better than the previous week. It was probably also due to the fact that the Storm were playing finals-like intensity and had their foot on our necks.

The other key difference is Barrett use of the interchange, which had far more complexity and nuance than Arthur. Arthur would go player A for B than change B for A almost religiously. Barrett would go player A for B then change B for C or D, criss-crossing his interchanges.

In a Nutshell

 The Sharks surely will be fired up and look to play an intense uptempto game through the middle and exploit our impending implosions and lack of mobility and middle vulnerabilities before exploiting the spaces on the outside and shredding the edges to pieces. They probably should be favorites.

It's likely we'll see plenty of points probably another 50 points on a dry track.

The Eels looked to be in shock at Arthur's shock sacking last week, and seemed to use that as a partial excuse. As Lane noted earlier this week - they're only "human" and in a "hole".

In theory, we should see a better Eels with Moses and Gutherson back. But will it be enough to win and change the course of the ship?