Eels Blogs

It was a Statement Win, almost three decades in the making against all odds.

After being written off by most of the rugby league world, the injury-hit Eels' upset the high-flying, competition leaders Souths (pic below). Bashing the competition favourites and leaders, 36-16. Dominating. Most expected it to be the other way around. Round twelve didn't go to the Indigenous script. It was a day that was meant to be all about Souths, Latrell, Cody and their wealthy, Indigenous tribe. Souths were becoming the pundits' competition favourites. As Gus Gould said they could beat anyone on any day they wanted. The Eels were meant to be but another speedhump. They proved them wrong.

Round 12, was A Tale Of Two Clubs. 

A Dickensian's The Best and Worst Of Times for the Cowboys and the Eels. 

The Cowboys recorded their worst defensive performance in 27 years. In contrast, the Eels, had their biggest win against Souths outside Parramatta in 27 years. 

Todd Payten described the Cowboys' R12 effort as: “Probably the worst performance we’ve had as a team since I have been at the club." An understatment?

But, really both clubs share a lot in common, this year. Both have struggled to gather momentum and make a fist of 2023 after the highs of 2022 where both ended top four and met in the preliminary final.

So, round 13, is an intriguing battle between these two with a lot on the line. 

The Eels are deserved hot favourites. But, will the Cowboys bounce back? Will the Eels build on their statement win? 

Team Lists

Friday, 8.00pm, CommBank Stadium, Parramatta, Sydney

Eels

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Wiremu Greig 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Matt Doorey 13. J’maine Hopgood 
Bench: 14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Brendan Hands 16. Luca Moretti 17. Makahesi Makatoa 
Extended Reserves: 18. Daejarn Asi 19. Haze Dunster 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Jack Murchie 22. Isaac Lumelume

Head Coach: Brad Arthur

Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Peta Hiku 5. Robert Derby 6. Ben Hampton 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Heilum Luki 13. Jake Granville 
Bench: 14. Jack Gosiewski 15. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Griffin Neame 
Extended Reserves: 18. Mitchell Dunn 19. Brendan Elliot 20. Sam McIntyre 21. Thomas Duffy 22. Jason Taumalolo

Head Coach: Todd Payten

Both teams are well below full strength. For the Eels, they are missing most of its starting pack. The likes of Shaun Lane, Ryan Matterson, Davey, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, all to injury, and Paulo to Origin. And, Jofa answers an SOS and is parachuted straight into the starting pack; no questions asked. The Cowboys are missing a plethora of their origin stars. Tom Dearden, Val Holmes, Murray Tuilagi and Reuben Cotter. Also, Jason Taumalolo is in the extended reserves coming back from injury. 

Can see a world where they keep kicking for Feldt who has scored 7 tries in the last 4 games against us; or behind the line (once they get Gutho directed away from their target). Or the usual - pepper the middle third or one corridor, compress and fatigue, they switch quickly to our exposed edges. Will their forwards be revved up, looking for atonement after last week's embarrassment? They still have enough in the spine Drinkwater-Robson-Townsend to score points if the effort areas are there and their forwards dominate.

Congratulations to Josh Hodgson's 150th milestone, the veteran warrior. And also for Ofahiki Ogden's 50th.

Recent History

When it comes to the Cowboys, the Eels have a good recent record, but the Cowboys have been in the doldrums in recent years outside of 2022 (3rd, 5th best defence) when they switched into an intense, high-effort area juggernaut. We were hit by that asteroid in R8, last year and blown away.

Since 2017 (8th) when they made the finals their defence has steadily declined and has helped land them bottom four real estate (13/16 in 2018 with the 6th worst defence; 14/16 in 2019 with the 5th worst defence; 14/16 in 2020 with the 2nd worst defence; 15/16 in  2021 and worst defence). 

Worryingly, for the Cowboys, 2023 is looking more less 2022 and more like the years before their resurgence last year. Their defence is now one of the worst, and they've conceded the most overall points (307) in the competition. They have a lot of work to do.

Once in Seven Years

Being back at Commbank Stadium should help us. It's been a while.

Oddly enough, in Seven Years we've only been here once against the Cowboys.Brad Pitt, the mountaineer, only need to go to Tibet once in Seven years in Tibet (1997) amidst war and chaos to be transformed after the spiritual meeting with the 14th reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. 

One wonders if the spiritual reincarnation of the Eels, back at home after our statement win will also spiritually transform the Eels?

Are the Eels really back? 

Perhaps. Who knows for sure? At least, this week, the Eels were on. They were one. They played for each other. They showed what they are capable of. They played with courage. Skill. Passion. All the effort areas were there. 

The Cowboys also seemed to be back, too. Three weeks ago. In R10 (above) when they shut the Roosters out 20-6 at Suncorp in an epic defensive display. And then thumped St George 42-22 (R11) at Townsville. Their 2022 swarming, desperate defence seemed to be back.

Then, two weeks later (R12), they hit rock bottom (above). Completely torn to shreds by the then-last placed Tigers. The equal worst defensive display in their history.

It's all a lesson for us as well. Beware false dawns, and being overconfident.

I didn't see that coming

Cowboys captain Chad Townsend summed it up in the post-match pressor.

After the last two weeks, I thought we’d played some of our best footy of the season and heading into this week were full of confidence. 

Chad Townsend, Cowboys Captain, post-match after the record 66-18 loss v the Tigers, R12

 

He added:

Collectively we just weren’t on tonight ... I didn’t see that coming.

Townsend, post the R12 massacre of his team 

Cowboys' Bouncebacks v Eels' Back-ups

In last two years or so, the Cowboys have had some success in being able to bounceback from heavy blowout losses. But, during that period (late 2021-2022) their defence had picked up (5th best in 2022). In the three-year cycle before that (2018-late 2021), the Cowboys were not good at bouncing back, and that co-related to the decline in their defence (sixth-worst to worst in the competition). 

So, we should get a handle on where the Cowboys are at fairly early on this Friday night on by their attitude in defence and in their effort areas. If they're on mentally, they can upset us.

On the other hand, how do the Eels back-up after big wins of 20 point or more margins?

The Eels' big win in R12 is their 24th over the last five years (2019-onwards). After a big win, they have won 15/ 23 games (65%). So, there is a decent probability, historically, the Eels will follow up. But, in those 8 games that the Eels lost after a big win four (50%) were 14-32 point margin losses.

Bottom Line

Both Sliding Doors (1998) and the Polish masterpiece Blind Chance (1981-87) which was originally censored and has been critically acclaimed by Martin Scorsese, share commonalities. They are about a female protagonist who meets two different destinies depending on whether she catches or misses the train.

It's now the Eels' turn to catch the 2023 train and get it back on track (even if we are missing the Lane train).

They need to make the great win over Souths count for something. 

Ironically, it was also Souths that provided the watershed moment in 2022. For it was after the heavy 26-0 (R22) loss and the subsequent "honesty session" that spurred the Eels on from R23 up to their inspired march to the grand final. Before that, the Eels were up and down on Sybil's rollercoaster with plenty of heavy losses under their belt and on the cusp of falling out of the eight.

Statistically and form-wise, at home, the Eels should blow the Cowboys off the park comfortably. We beat a tough Tigers unit 28-22 (R6). Souths beat a determined Tigers 20-0 (R11). Then, the Tigers slaughtered the Cowboys 66-18 (R12),whilst we dominated Souths 36-16 (R12). 

But, we all know life and footy don't work that way. 

And we all know, none-more-than-us Eels' fans, how being favourites and over-confident can turn out. So do the Cowboys. Most pundits are writing the Cowboys off for this one. So, it probably puts more pressure on us; as it's expected we win and win handsomely.

And bear in mind, after all, the Eels have only won 2-straight once this year. Have we turned the corner?

It all hinges on who is emotionally and mentally more up for the fight; who wins the critical moments.

Mitchell Moses summed it all up yesterday, fronting the media.

“Before (earlier rounds), we weren't nailing the moments and I thought we nailed all of our moments on the weekend (R12 against Souths) and it and it showed in our footy.”

“The biggest thing for us is we have got to back that up, now. We haven't really backed up (after) a good performance, yet. So we gotta do that this week.”

Realistically though, we won't maintain the round-12-like rage over the next 15 rounds, and we don't have a habit or track record of being consistent week-to-week, half-to-half.

But, we have to do it regularly enough to make a fist of this year. And do it at least it 7-8 weeks of the next 12 games we play. Getting to 30 points (12 wins, 12 losses) might be enough to get us into the eight, especially on a good differential which we have at the moment.

Something similar applies to the Cowboys. They should be desperate. Really, it's not difficult to imagine various different fates, from a close nail-bitter to a blowout for either team.

Looking ahead, will the Eels' statement win last week prove to be a watershed moment or a False Dawn?