The marauding Raiders are on a three-straight winning roll mauling the hapless Rabbits, and skinning the Sharks in consecutive weeks to blow-horn their arrival.
They won’t fear us, and are on the hunt for four-straight scalps for the first time since the end of 2020 when they were last in the finals. In contrast, we are looking to win two-straight for the first time since round five. It's been LWLWLW since then. Daz’s Good Sybil. Bad Sybil.
Last year, after 15 long year we massacred them 35-10 here to rewrite history in round 6. But the Raiders exacted revenge to win 10-12 in our last meet (R19, CBUS). And we have won 3 of the last 4 against the Raiders.
Can we break Sybil’s vicious cycle? NRL premiership teams go on a few significant winning runs during the season to be battle-hardened by finals’ time to win the most intense games all year against the best back-to-back. We have not proved we are yet capable of this and the Raiders are in rare form.
Teams
R12 Indigenous Round: Sunday, May 29 4:05pm AEST, GIO Stadium, Canberra
Eels (Dharug &Burramattagal):
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake (L) 3. Viliami Penisini (R) 4. Tom Opacic (L) 5. Bailey Simonsson (R) 6. Dylan Brown (L) 7. Mitchell Moses (R) 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane (L) 12. Marata Niukore (R) 13. Isaiah Papali’i
Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Nathan Brown
Extended Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Hayze Perham 22. Sean Russell 23. Ky Rodwell 24. Maika Sivo
Head Coach: Brad Arthur
Ins: Waqa Blake comes in earlier than expected and in his best position, Maika Sivo is on the extended list and scored two tries in Cup footy last week, but looked short of a gallop and is being held back for now and an unlikely. But I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few other shifts before the game, and Arthur is a little less predictable than in years gone by.
Outs: Hayze Perham
Raiders (Ngunnawal &Wiradjuri):
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric (L) 3. Jarrod Croker (L) 4. Matthew Timoko (R) 5. Jordan Rapana (R) 6. Jack Wighton (L) 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young (L) 12. Elliott Whitehead (R) 13. Adam Elliott
Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sebastian Kris 17. Corey Horsburgh
Extended Reserves: 18. Brad Schneider 19. Harry Rushton 20. James Schiller 21. Corey Harawira-Naera 22. Trey Mooney 23. Emre Guler 24. Matt Frawley
Head Coach: Ricky Stuart
Ins: Jamal Fogarty plays his first match of the season and should make them even more dangerous (than Schneider); veteran Jarrod Croker makes an amazing comeback; Ryan Sutton.
Outs: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (hamstring) is a big out but Savage has x-factor and speed; Harry Rushton drops out of 17 into extended bench.
Who do you prefer?
Which jersey: Raiders or the Eels? I vote ours.
Ice's 100th
The last few weeks have been an emotional time both teams. Big Papy celebrated his 250th NRL game in style last week. The Origin hardman even admitted to Fox, after last week’s, to “crying all week” thinking about all “sacrifices” his parents, wife, children had made.Arthur also admitted this for Gutho’s 150th NRL game last week.
This week it's Ice’s 100th NRL game. He scored 2 tries the last time we were here and three tries in total against the Raiders - his most against any team. Tough guy. Tough game.
GIO
It's also the home of the Ngunnawal People.
And the Clap.
It's a miserable place for us. We have only won 2 from the last 15 games here since 2000.
We have the worst record at GIO than any ground we have played at since 1995 - excluding our three games at Mackay and Sunshine Coast Stadiums; Covid gap-fillers.
We broke a 15-year hoodoo last year with our 35-10 demolition last year, but can we now break a 22 year hoodoo and win two straight? One thing to consider. Last year, at GIO the Raiders won 2 from 7 all year, and we caught them in the middle of a five-game losing streak. In contrast, this year they have won 3 from 4 this year at GIO (only losing to the high-flying Cows) and are on a three-game roll.
Don't expect the walk in the park it was last year.
Stats
Furthermore, we would want to be ahead at half-time. We have never won at GIO this century when we've been behind at half-time. Actually, I can't find a record of us winning from behind in the last century either, not yet (tell me if you do).
Sure, we came from behind 10-12 at Commbank to beat Manly last week. But, it’s a different story away - where we have only won 1 from the last 21.
What do the below overall season stats tell you?
Sometimes it's best to do what I was taught in first-year architecture a few years ago (late 80s). A two step process. One, close your eyes and blur the image to get a feel for its idea; the gist of it in a nutshell. Then, focus on the space between the objects. Apparently, some artists do this as well.
These stats indicate the Eels should have more points (4th v 11th), but the Raiders are a better defensive unit (8th v 7th) conceding less missed tackles and far less linebreaks. What it also shows is the Raiders can concede plenty of errors and penalties (e.g for being inside the 10, taking their aggression one step too far, as well as being a bit uncouth). Will the Eels capitalize on it?
However, in recent weeks those season averages have been turned on its head.
To illustrate, look at a ladder based on the last three weeks.
The Raiders have been better than us in both attack (5th v 7th) and defence (2nd v 7th); scoring more (25.3 ppg v 22.7 ppg) and conceding far less (8.7 ppg v 23.7 ppg). They have been making making plenty of metres, offloads (2nd to us at 1st), and an outrageous amount of linebreaks (7 last week v our 4) and tackle busts (48 last week v our 27).
I think this is more indicative of the challenge we face.
Our right-edge defence is the equal third-worst (equal with Dogs, after Titans and Manly). I imagine Niukore is here to beef it up. Raiders overall are not much better here conceding only one less try than us (19 v 20). Our left edge defence is better: equal fifth-worst with Titans (Tigers, Warriors, Dragons, Knights) conceding 16/42 tries.
Our left-edge attack is equal third-best (with the Sharks, behind only Panthers, Cowboys). Raiders have the 12th-best left edge attack, but in recent weeks they have been on fire in attack. They have scored the opening try in four straight games, three of these coming down their left side.
Fatal flaws continue
Last week, Manly exposed our edges once again.
Our edge defence is often akin to Sybil rodeo-riding a Greek tragedy.
Manly switched points of attacking from left to right and struck once the Eels’ defence was off-tilt, panicked, and compressed all of which left our edges vulnerable. They outwitted us with footy nous and skill creating space on our edges which we struggled to defend. Supposedly, a picture tells a thousand words. So, here are thousands of words.
They shift to their left quickly (without a settler) to get the ball to a sweeping Turbo towards our our right edge (again). It also takes advantage of Moses' sin binning.
Simmo left alone to deal with mission impossible, panics, comes in and tries to jamm Turbo (again) but is unsuccessful (again).
Gutho has eyes on DCE (not the ball), then Foran's masterly grubber was perfectly executed for Garrick to score; taking advantage of an Eels rushing defence that tried to not be passive (passive and moving backwards is normally disastrous).
If Garrick nails a few conversions, or Kuola nails the catch to score it could have been a different story. We got out of jail this time, but we won’t regularly unless we address it and mentally disciplined to show up moment-to-moment as one cohesive unit, not just disciplined enough to have good completion rates or not concede penalties. That’s not enough.
It’s a warning.
Canberra have been playing with plenty of width and second phase ad-lib footy in recent weeks.
And it's nothing new. It's been going on for years (refer last year's blog and Matt Elliot's 2019 Coaches' Corner).
Still, there was plenty to like about the Eels as well.
Plenty of toughness and skill. There was an attempt to create less-predictable more ad-lib second phase footy (22 offloads). I also like Moses roaming a bit more using his maturing footy nous; such as when he sweeping on the left-edge joining up with Dylan (instead of Gutho) for the first try. Importantly, the goal-line defence and scrambling was toughened-up at critical moments, and ultimately another factor in winning. Without all that we lose. In years gone by, we probably lose that game by 20.
Also, credit must be given to Moses nailed the “clutch moment”: he’s missed plenty in the past.
Bottom Line
This is a danger game.
Although the Raiders don’t possess the same level of footy skill and nous of the Silvertails or the artillery of a full-strength and in-form Panthers or Storm (who have stumbled horribly with half a spine recently), the Raiders are berserk. They are playing like men-possessed and are one of the most in-form teams. They also can play with plenty of width to put us to the sword.
These mauling Raiders pose a grave challenge with their up-tempo mongrel that we’ll find difficult to deal with. We’re not often an 80-minute battle hardened unit, yet: moment-to-moment, half-to-half or game-to-game. And certainly they will feel extremely confident, and have enough gutso and oomph in attack to worry us. The likes of Starling, Big Papy, Tapine, Wighton, Savage, Rapana, and a rough and tumble pack.
Given all that and the home ground advantage, we are probably false favourites.
Nonetheless, we have the artillery up front, the advantage in the spine and skill to win if we are the focused and mentally tough. Disciplined enough to fight in the critical moments for every inch - defending our line as if our lives depended on it. If we meet these mauling Berserkers head on - like we did against a full-strength and inform Panthers or Storm - we can prevail. If not, the Berserkers are more than capable of bashing us until they triumph.
The beginnings of the end of our season may depend on it.
Replies
Eels win, Simonsson MOM
But every game's a danger game when you're the Parramatta Eels.
Im hoping for an Eels win as I cant satnd Ricky Stuart. Depends too on the weather and what Eels team turn up. The Eels really need to satrt getting more wins under their belt or they could easily slip out of the top 8. For me Eels by 10+ but the Raiders are unpredictable especially at home on Sunday Arvo
Monto also
based on statistics the weather in Canberra this close to winter is highly likely to be VERY COLD . LOL
Brillant summary HOE. Your the man. Great read and 150% agree with your summary. Sitting directly behind tha posts in my seats at Commbank - you unfortunately see the defense structure at its finest ( if you call it that ). The compressed defense works in red zones when your jamming but not tackles 4-5 or repeat sets. As you have shown , booth wingers are always 20 metres in field and if the ball comes out the back or is passed before the line this equates the purspose of compressed defence. EVERY Team plays us the same way and EVERY Team strips us for numbers becuase we are vulnerable to a kick behind the line and the cut out ball. Not sure if we can change it 1/2 way through the comp but it is so stressful watching the play unfold knowing for well we will be out numbered and only a bad pass or an exceptional scramble will save a try in 95% of the time.
Canberra will do the same thing and have more pace than us. But if you starve them of the ball and hold field position THEY make so many mistakes. Patience and pressure will get the win.
Thanks, Paul taylor . You're a gentleman of the site. The Paul Taylor of the 80s glory years was also a humble gentleman and witty (still remember a chat we had over 30-35 years ago).
It's great you saw it live. TV is convenient, but you can't see all the important little things that happen on the field (like who's regulary doing the on-field talking) as well as the big picture (who's organizing the defence and numbering up) until it's too late.
The thing I've been wondering for some time about two things specifically, and you may provide insights - or tell me I'm crazy.
On the defensive front, we often get short (compression being one reason) so often. Does Gutho call out and help with numbering up man for man? Bark orders? Gutho was outwitted by the Silvertails at times last week (DCE and their array of players with smarts). You look at great defensive teams of the past (e.g. Storm or Roosters) and they have a guy who's role is to count numbers, and helps organise the defence. Or is this just an Arthur's system thing?
The formula for beating us does not that seem all that hard for a decent team switched on.
A 1-2-3. Play up-tempo mogrel in our faces to fluster us, then attack the middle or one corridor with intensity then attack the vulnerable edges (often right) shifting out wide without any settlers. That's kind of the 101. Manly, Storm and Souths used to do that for fun. Manly add other layers of nuanced nous (with DCE/ Schuster/Foran/Turbo and the wrecking ball Oka).
The other thing is on our attack, I'm wondering how do you rate our collective footy nous and cohesiveness?
Was going to write a blog on it, but I already saturate this site, and it might not interest most of us.
I remember watching Lombardi's Packers and wanted to understand what made them great especially when they were under pressure - and needed to find the will and way to win. Sure there's Lombardi, a great motivator and thinker, but, it was not just him. Often not him at all in the clutch moments.
When they were under pressure and behind and needed a rabbit out of the hat, there was a collective football nous. Often there would be a guy in the team who wasn't necessarily the general or a superstar who actually spotted vulnerabilities in the opposition but provided a on-field plan which the generals and team worked collectively towards nailing. The egos didn't clash in the clutch moments. Lombardi even took a back seat to it at times. He allowed the players to reach their full potential; mixed in with some uncompromising, autocratic fatherly-benevolence. Because mental toughness in action (will and discipline moment to moment) and belief, or confidence, is everything.
The Packer's reminded me of something Andrew Johns once said when asked how he knew where to spot vulnerabilities in the opposition. I suppose it's easy to assume he just had footy nous to do it, but he said he had a lot of help and Ben Kennedy was in his ear all the time. The Knights of 2001 weren't lucky. When Joey played they scored 38ppg and conceded 19 and a bit, and won 15 of the last 16 - and beat us twice.
It made me realize you need a collective footy nous, and I wondered about us. Who feeds Moses, Gutho, or Dylan (still developing) ? Or is it left up to these guys? As much as Moses wants to be the Man, he can't do it alone. Even Joey knew that. If you're relying on a superstar general or two to do all the on-field thinking for you, the team will never reach its full potential or greatness. And I'm not as convinced by Reed being a general and commander with great footy nous tbh, but he gives great service, has heart, is a terrier dog in defence and support (sometimes) when there is a try on offer. Do we have any clash of egos as well?
What makes me wonder about our collective nous, is too often get lost and predictable attacking in the opposition red zone, going sideway, despite having ample opportunites (e.g.first half v Roosters R10 where we had 32-9 tackles in their 20 and 60% possession ). We play too many settlers and that drifting sideways to pass behind (to a forward running onto the ball) that is usually 99% ineffective. A bit lazy mentally, tbh. Comfortable. If only we would donate a dollar to charity for every one of those plays. I'm wondering how much of that is due to coaching systems, and how much is due to a lack of collective footy nous?
However, a positive for me against Manly, is we looked to play more creative, ad-lib second-phase footy (even if it didn't quite show on the scoreboard and come off) which is in our DNA (and a reason we went so well in 2001, although I think Drew and PJ provided more of an attacking spark and threat out of dummy half than Reed). And I like Moses roaming a bit more (using his speed and maturing nous). Hopefully, we build on this.
In a sense, this collective nous applies in defence.
You need that on-field communication, and collective unity. A guy counting numbers and the team reacting and adapting to different circumstances. The line has to be one. I can't recall what term Trent Robinson used for it once when the Roosters had that impregnable defensive wall - but it was like an organic dance where everyone is stepping to the same tune. A oneness. Adapting to the play. It's almost Darwinism in action. We don't seem to do that often enough and Manly exposed this. Yet again.
The win might just gloss over these flaws, temporarily.
I think it all comes under the banner of executing your systems to perfection, but also being able to play outside of them. We don't seem quite there yet, IMO. What do you think?
HOE nice response to Paul who I also find with very centered in his posts. "COLLECTIVE NOUS" Penrith have it we don,t --not yet. I agree it maybe should be a job for Gutho to focus on - to keep the wingers marking their opposites.-1234.Its not that complicated
Yes Hoe, your response or addition to PT's comments showed a depth of knowledge and understanding that not many on here could put into words......really was quite brilliant.
I also noted that Mont's is on this thread as well and as such I think I will ask the question on his behalf......purely because I am a shit stirring old bastard..... you made reference to the following "almost Darwinism in action" could you explain this so that those of us who have not evolved can understand its meaning. LOL
PS probably brings Snake's chimps into the action as well but lets not go there!
haha Pops--- thinking much the same
Darwinism
Agree mate, were false favs here.
Absolutely incredible blog again bro, this is a real danger with our raiders record anhd or bipolar form, its like this game was made for us to lose.
Im going to pick against us here, reckon the raiders might just get up.
Raiders by 4
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