Eels Blogs

"If you aren't going all the way, why go at all?" asks NFL legend Joe Namath. We face getting booted out in straight sets, again. And difficult questions need to be asked. 

It's do or die for both teams. The Rabbits' attacking juggernaut, justifiably hot favourites, are shooting for three straight with sky-high confidence. They belted the Knights 46-20 last week, the Roosters 60-8 the week before, and us six weeks ago 38-0. They probably see us as a nuisance speedhump. 

Will the dream end for the Eels? Other than hope, the Eels haven't given us a lot to be confident about. But, underdogs have won before.  We've looked patchy for the second half of the season, undermining a promising start where we appeared to be in the mix. Since then, our attack has been mostly awful, lacking in finesse and execution, whilst our edge defence in particular has looked vulnerable and has been a pariah for fans and the media.

For only the third time in our 74 year history, we haven't lost two consecutive matches all season. Not since 2001. We didn't even manage to avoid two or more consecutive defeats during our 1981-83 glory years. What happened to us this year, and why do we seem to crack under pressure? 

A tale of two seasons, finally converge

In the first half of the season, from rounds 1 to 11, the Eels looked like contenders, whilst the Rabbits seemed destined to be just filling up the eight. We won won 9 from 11, scored 254, conceded 150, for an average score of 23.1 to 13.63. The best defensive team with a promising attack. Meanwhile, Souths won 5 from 11, scored 230, conceded 192, for an average score of 20.9 to 17.45. We were a better attacking and defending team then, and in that form, should have accounted for the Rabbits who even lost to the Broncos.

In the second half of the season, since round 12, Souths have soared. They scored more, conceded less, and won more games than us, far more convincingly. They have won 8 from 10, scored 349, conceded 180, for an average score of 34.9 to 18 as one of the premier attacks. Conversely, we have won 6 from 10, scored 162, conceded 190, for an average score 16.2 to 19. A deficit, burdened with the second worst attack in the competition after the Broncos.

The bookmakers odds sum up the contrasting seasons. We were mid-season contenders. Second on the ladder, $4.50 at round 12. We're now at a season low $41. Conversely, the Rabbits were $41 at the end of R12. Since then they kept rising. Now at $17, with some hope.

And now, we finally meet in a finals game for only the second time since 1965 when the Eels 2were beaten 17-2 in week 1, despite having shared six finals' series previously (1965, 1971, 1984, 1986, 2007, and 2019).

Teams

Eels:
1. Clinton Gutherson (C) 2. George Jennings (L) 3. Michael Jennings (L) 4.Waqa Blake (R) 5.Blake Ferguson (R) TBC 6.Dylan Brown 7.Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9.Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11.Shaun Lane (L/M) 12. Ryan Matterson (R) 13. Nathan Brown (M/roams) 100th gam Bench: 14. Will Smith 15.Andrew Davey (L/M) 16.Kane Evans 17. Ray Stone
Reserves: 18. Oregon Kaufusi 19. Brad Takairangi 20.Haze Dunster 21.Daniel Alvaro Outs: Two significant ones from last week, Sivo (injury) and Niukore (suspension). We won't be hearing the Sivo, Sivo, Sivo, Sivo chant for some time. Fergo is also in serious doubt and more changes are possible. It's also Nathan Brown's 100th game. Head Coach: Brad Arthur

Souths:
1. Corey Allan 2. Alex Johnston (L) 3.Campbell Graham (R) 4.Dane Gagai (L) 5.Jaxson Paulo (R) 6. Cody Walker (L, roaming) 7.Adam Reynolds (R) (C) 8.Tevita Tatola 9.Damien Cook 10.Thomas Burgess 11.Jaydn Su’A (R) 12. Bayley Sironen (L) 13. Cameron Murray (M) Bench: 14.Mark Nicholls 15.Liam Knight 16.Jed Cartwright 17. Keaon Koloamatangi  Reserves: 18. Steven Marsters 19. Hame Sele 20. Troy Dargan. 21. Patrick Mago Head Coach: Wayne Bennett

Referee: Gerard Sutton, who also the on-field ref in the Rabbits 38-0 slaughter of us, at Bankwest, R16. Touch Judges: Dave Munro, Todd Smith

The Eels-Souths rollercoaster, now at Bankwest

Since 2014, under Arthur, the Eels have had an up and down record against the Rabbits for 5 wins, 6 loses: LWLLWWWLLWL.

Bankwest doesn't appear to hold a a huge advantage for us this week it's not too much: both teams have won 75% of their matches here.

Souths have won 6 from 8 at Bankwest, this year. Since their R3 loss there to the Roosters, after returning from the COVID break, they have only lost once 20-18 to the Knights in round 10. Meanwhile, we have won 9 from 12 at Bankwest this year, last losing to the Rabbits in R16 where they handed our worst loss at this new ground 38-0. In total, we've won 18 from 23 here.

It's also the venue we won our only finals match during Arthur's tenure (and over the last eleven years), demolishing the Broncos 58-0, last year. That seems a lifetime ago.

Effort isn't enough

In last week's pressor, Arthur, who has a 3-7 win-loss record against Bennett, noted we played "dumb", but "brave" football. An indirect admittance the "effort" mantra isn't near enough.

While it's true the Eels didn't "give up" as they had in the past years, it still not enough. There were some other positives. We tryied to play more direct and Moses was taking on the line more than he has in a long time. More of that is needed. So, it's not all bad news.

However, our last tackle options were often poor, and we often kicked down the fullback's throat. We also often lost the ball cheaply in good position, often through one-on-one strips or forced errors by the Storm. We didn't execute opportunities as we have for half of the season, we didn't build pressure, and were exposed defensively by a Storm team that seem to do everything more intelligently and quicker. Yet again.

All that aside, we won't win by giving away 60% possession as we did last week. The battle of fatigue is a big factor; it will make cowards of us, if not fools, especially under the new rules. And especially against the hyper-confident white-hot Walker, Reynolds, Johnston, Allen, Cook and co that could climb Everest in their slippers, right now.

So, why hasn't the right edge defence been fixed, yet?

Fans, regular commentators such as Peter Sterling, Paul Vautin, and other media critics have repeatedly asked this.

Our right-edge men are under siege.

Mal Meninga, like many Eels' fans, question how Waqa has kept his place in the team. There are other casualties. Moses' promise as an Origin contender seems to have drifted off into the sunset, for now. Ferguson's origin hopes also seem to have gone down the gurgler.

Statistically, Waqa Blake and Moses have some of the highest missed tackle count in the competition. Both of them are only a few rungs better than Mitchell Pearce. Waqa has also made a bad habit of shooting out of the line to try and neutralise the attack with usually bad results.

Michael Jennings, has come to Waqa's defence, "coaching" him as the senior player, reminding him to remain more patient and not "shoot off the line" frantically:

"I think he's been pretty hard done by [with the criticism]...Centres do get blamed and it's the hardest position to defend at on the field because of all the decision making. His [Waqa's] work ethic is really good, he's a great defender, it's just that edge needs to work together and connect better as a group. He's been singled out because he's been trying to do things himself and it hasn't come off. Teams usually attack our right because they favour right-to-left passing, and it's easier to attack that side."

Indeed, Jenning point appears to be backed up by some evidence to a degree. Over 50 more tries were scored on the defending teams' right edge than the left during the season. But, it's only a 5% difference, whereas the Eels right edge defence has conceded 12% more (51% on the right to 39% to the left). 

So, is it simply a case of missed tackles and poor decisions by the right edge?

Let's dive deeper

Over a year ago, a few days before Storm booted us out of the 2019 finals, in week 2, former NRL coach Matt Elliot warned about our edge vulnerabilities.

Elliot pointed out the Eels edges would be badly exposed if they didn't fix their ruck and defensive structures by the Storm, which is exactly what happened. In particular, he noted that the over-concentration of players in the ruck area and inside men failing to support the edges left them vulnerable. Let's look at every try from last week's loss the Storm and identify exactly what Elliot was talking about a year on. 

Dissecting the Storm's six tries: and the Eels' defence

In the 15th minute we shifted Michael Jennings at right centre to shore up the right edge, and shifted Waqa to the left wing, before the 15th minute. Ten minutes after the swap, the Storm were still ripping our right edge apart. They opened their scoring account in the 29th minute. By the 61st minute, in the space of 30 minutes, Storm put on 36 points to put the game out of our grasp.

Six tries: 3 tries down our right edge, 2 down our left, and 1 through the middle. Storm made a whopping 11 line breaks.

1st try: Suliasi Vunivalu 29', on our left edge. Here our right edge defence stopped a try, but are heavily compressed in the right corner. Meanwhile, Waqa is left isolated in 30m of space: big enough to fit a blue whale. 

2nd: Papenhuyzen scores in the 32nd minute after yet another raid down our right edge. Again we see some subtle compression in the defence, this time in the middle. It creates two opportunites for the Storm on the left and right.  Waqa is left covering close to 35m alone. There's also an overlap on our right edge which Storm take, and isolate Moses for an Bromwich offload, an Olam line-break supported by Papenhuyzen.

3rd: Josh Addo-Carr scores in the 42nd minute on our right edge. Again, we see an uneven, compressed Eels defence that results in only 3 Eels covering half the field. And the Storm punish.

4th: Jesse Bromwich scores in the 54th minute on the left edge. Munster reads the space created, by Davey's rushing up off the line, and puts Bromwich through on a great line off a brilliant short pass. Even if the Storm didn't score off this play, they had opportunities elsewhere. Seven Eels covered 10m around the goal posts, meaning there were 6 Eels covering over 55m. Our left edge could have been exploited instead, as it would have been short.

5th: Brenko Lee scores in the 57th minute on our left edge. Here, 3 Eels are left to cover half the field and are too infield. This creates an overlap where Waqa is two-on-one, facing both Lee and Vunivalu. And that overlap gets even worse once Papenhuyzen chimes in, running direct with bodies in motion around him.

6th: Papenhuyzen scores Storm's last try in the 61st minute, after Munster busts the middle. Here, Munster spotted a 20m gaping hole in the middle and Papenhuyzen supported.

Most of six tries had elements of what Elliot was referring to a year ago: compressed defences and inside men failing to back up the edges, leaving them badly exposed. There were spaces and holes everywhere for the Storm to exploit. So, it's not only missed tackles, and poor decision making - it's a deeper issue. And although our scrambling defence has been good this year, only a "team" solution will fix it from being terminal.

Although a moot point, actually, 2019's right edge defence wasn't really much better (it conceded 1.35 tries per game to 1.38 this year, not taking into account the new rules opening the game up). That's partly because our 2019 defence - overall - was worse; especially the middle and goal-line defence. We didn't notice it as much, admidst all the other chaos. This year, it sticks out like dogs' balls. A ready made pinata.

The bottom line is: if we don't address these issues immediately, and give the Rabbits that much space, we could be in for some ghastly events down the rabbits' hole. The instinctual Cody Walker is in the form of his life and been given a licence to hog the ball and do whatever he sees blood. And Bennett has them brimming with confidence and belief. His specialty is connecting with players.

Souths' left edge is the second most brutal in the competion, after the Panthers. They score 51% of their tries on their left, and it's againt our right edge that concedes 51% of our tries. A splendid marriage made in hell. Remember round 16.

But, Souths have their vulnerabilities, too

For one, their right edge has conceded more tries than ours this year. Actually, in every facet Souths' defence has conceded more: left edge (27 to 22), middle (10 to 6) and right edge (31 to 29). It's in attack Souths' have us in spades. 

The other issue with Souths is they can be very inconsistent, week to week. They lost to the Dogs 26-16 in round 19, then score 60-8 the next week against the premiers. Souths also lost to the Storm twice, Raiders, Knights, and the Sharks. The only time they won more than two consecutive matches was five in a row was between rounds 12-16 against St George, the Broncos, the Cowboys, Manly, and then us. There's only one top eight team in that run. So, questions surround their ability to handle tier one teams, under pressure.

Also, there are some lessons in the Dogs' win over Souths a few weeks ago, despite Souths coming awfully close to pulling a rabbit out of the hat to win that game after being down 20-0. Other than defending better, targetting Walker and Reynolds may pay dividends. It's a pity we didn't attack the Storm's halves and second rowers a little more. We saw in Lane's try what happens when Hughes is isolated.

Do we have enough left in the tank?

Whilst it should be a good battle up front and in the middle and we have some talented forwards, if Souths exploit an Eels' defence that offers as many opportunities and space as it did last week, it could get ugly. The new rules will accentuate and amplify any defensive issues if the attack is well-oiled and well-executed. Souths could quite quickly seize the momentum, and possession, and out-fatigue us, strangling our engine room out of the game. We need to get on the front foot early and keep the foot on.

Our defence, like our attack, as a "team", lacks enough cohesion and connection. That's up to the players and coaching staff to fix. Lombardi believed that "Individual commitment to a group effort is what makes a team work" and that it was in the "hearts" and will of men that where the fight was won, coupled with proper, disciplined preparation. And despite what the pundits believe, I don't think we lack talent or skill. But, there's something ghastly amiss.

For whatever reasons, we've devolved, whilst the Rabbits have evolved. Is it too late for us to turn it around? Do we have enough left in the tank? Enough fire in the belly, collectively, after a tough grinding season? This is a test for our team, our club and the coaching staff. Our season and more is on the line this Saturday night. It's time to step up.