Preview (Part III): Dogs attack will test our D

In the final part of our three-part preview of the Dogs vs Eels clash, we look at the Eels defence and whether it can hold out the Bulldog's attack. As mentioned in yesterday's preview, the Bulldogs have been consistently excellent at scoring points throughout the year. Indeed they finished with the most points of any side after the end of the regular season. They do that without having any real superstars in their backline. There's no Greg Inglis, Darren Lockyer or Jarryd Hayne. However, the Dogs have shown themselves to be clinical finishers who know how to get across the stripe. They've only been held to less than 12 once this year and they average 22 points a game. The thing that the Bulldogs do very well is just keep pushing forward. Their pack goes forward, their support play pushes them forward, Ennis shifts the ball around from dummy half well to keep the momentum going forward, Kimmorley and Roberts kick long and deep and even their backline plays are very direct. They do a very good job of getting themselves into the position to score, more than the opposition does. Stopping this go-forward is key but its not easy to do. Ben Hannant sets a great platform and is ably backed up by the likes of Greg Eastwood and Michael Hodgson. The Bulldogs carry a big bench that focuses on keeping the momentum rolling and the likes of Chris Armit have done admirable jobs this year. The Eels need to come out fired up and win the collisions early. If Fuifui Moimoi can come out and do what he did against the Bulldogs last time we played them, we will go along way towards beating them. The Dogs were a little flat in that match and a rampaging Moimoi came out, knocked Hannant out of the way on the first hitup and set the scene for the rest of the match. The Bulldogs produced very little attacking flair in that match and it showed how much you can take out of their attack if you manage to stop their forwards. Traditionally, teams that have had the week-off struggle to keep up in the early minutes so the opening passages really do look like an opportunity for the Eels to try and smash the Doggies out of the match. What you don't want is to get into an arm wrestle because that's where the Dogs excel. Once that relentless rolling go-forward gets going, they just tend to grind you into the ground and then they have the class out wide to deliver the killer blows. Winning the collisions is important so as to blunt any Bulldogs second-phase play. You know the Blue and White are going well when they start offloading and they support each other extremely well so are very difficult to stop when they get into that mode. The key is not to let them get on top of you, because they won't tend to play this kind of football until they have the upper hand. Like the Dragons, the Bulldogs have a favoured side and have scored a bundle of points via Josh Morris and Bryson Goodwin. Critics of the Eels keep pointing to the Reddy/Grothe combination as our weakness and while its true the majority of our tries have been scored down that side, Daniel Anderson has done very well to address that weakness in recent weeks and the Eels are now sliding very well to cover up any instances where the opposition gets around Eric Grothe. I do remain concerned about the kick behind the line. I highlight that last week and the Titans were unlucky not to come up with a try with that play early in the game last week, with Jarryd Hayne doing extremly well to come across and cover up a kick that was about to be swamped upon by two Titans attackers. The Bulldogs do this play better than anyone in the competition, particularly off the boot of Ben Roberts and they have had success with it in both games they played against us this year. Jarryd Hayne will have to be very aware of this danger and our defenders should also be looking to block the kick through wherever they can, because its a play that is almost impossible to defend against when you employ an up and in defence like we do. I think the Bulldogs will play a little flatter than the Dragons, with Kimmorley looking for a cutout pass close to the line that won't give the Eels slide defence a chance to come across. The Eels also need to be very wary of Bryson Goodwin's inside ball to Josh Morris as they have scored a big number of points with that play all through the year. Unlike the Dragons, the Bulldogs can attack down their other flank as well through Jamal Idris. Krisnan Inu needs to be aggressive on Idris because he's almost impossible to stop if he gets close to the line. The other big attacking weapon the Dogs have is Michael Ennis' excellent dummy half work. Our markers need to be absolutely on their game because Ennis can jump out of dummy half and create an overlap in a twinkling. We've been caught by the Bulldogs short blind-side plays that Ennis has often created this year before. The final play I'm worried about is Ben Hannant running at Daniel Mortimer. Hannant is hard enough to bring down as it is, and with Mortimer's dodgy hip, a one-on-one situation between those two is a recipe for disaster. Hannant is excellent at isolating smaller defenders and he did a job on Kris Keating in the first match we played, where Keating was carrying an injury as well and was very effectively targetted by Hannant. Of course, the best way to really stop the Bulldogs is to just keep them out of your attacking zone. The closer they get to the line, the more likely they are to score points. Parramatta can assist their defence immeasurably simply by making sure they have a high completion rate and limit the Bulldogs attacking chances inside our 20 metres. The Dogs aren't noted for their long-range tries and its probably fair to say the Eels have more broken field runners, although Josh Morris does need to be kept safe as he can go the length of the park. While the Eel's defence has been absolutely brilliant over the last month, this will be by far its stiffest test yet. As I've shown the Dogs have a lot of attacking strikepower that hasn't been dulled on too many occasions this year. However, if any team is going to shut down the Dogs it will be Parramatta. I mentioned earlier in this article, only one team has kept them below 12 points all year. That team, was of course the Eels in our Round 20 27 to 8 victory. IN SUMMARY The old saying 'forwards win matches' is going to be particularly true in this clash. I think if we win the collisions, we will the game. It will let us start our expansive, attacking game and it will limit the Bulldogs attacking prowess. If on the other hand, the Dogs forward get on one of their rolls, I doubt that even our brickwall-like defence will be able to stem the tide. The start of this clash is going to be very important. If we drop early ball and let the Bulldogs get into their rhythm very quickly it's going to be a tough night. However, if we start at a high tempo and the Dogs are that little bit slow out of the gates and we manage to put on early points, I think we will prove very difficult to run down and could even run away with it. We need to hope this match doesn't become a grind. You can't beat the Dogs at that game. But good second-phase play and attacking football has proven a very effective counter to their style, and its something we can do better than any other team in the competition. Our ball control needs to be great, though. We won't win this match if our completion rates drop down below 70 per cent. I think we can do it. I think we have that little bit more brilliance, and I'm confident our forwards are going to aim up. We haven't yet been beaten in the last 3 months when they have.

Just a quick tactical point, I'd like to see Caylo win the toss and kick off! We saw from the Broncos/Dragons game last week that the first defensive set can really set the tone for the game, and let's not kid ourselves, there's no way the Dogs forwards are going to be smashed like they were in our Round 20 clash. They'll be up for it and keen to dominate up-front from the kick off.

The Dogs have had the week off and potentially could take 10-15 mins to get into the rhythm of the game. All the more reason why a good strong driving set in defense, pinning the Dogs to their line from the kick-off could well sow the seeds of doubt in their minds early in the contest when, in my opinion, they are at their most vulnerable.

Of course, if they kick off, we can expect an absolutely torrid and brutal first set from them in D - just as the Dragons experienced, and an early error WILL prove costly!

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Finchy September 25, 2009 at 2:57am

Thanks for the previews. I enjoyed reading them all. I really want to see Parra start this match strong like you've suggested .. I don't think defending on our goal line for the first 10-15 minutes of each half is going to work as it did againts the Dragons and the Titans. We need to gain the upper hand early and hopefully put on some quick points (duh!).

My biggest worry is Morts. As much as I like him and he deserves to be there, I'd prefer to see Feleti at 6 for this game. The dogs will be pressuring his kicks and running at him at every oportunity. He really needs to be 100% fit to handle this match.

I think Parra's attack will get us home in this game rather than our D. I think we'll test the dogs more than they'll test us and that will prove the difference. Go parra!
- Sanbo > Finchy September 25, 2009 at 7:51am
  
  This game is all about domination in the forwards......whoever dominates wins.
  
  We need to soften em up from the start, which is easier said than doneDont expect this to be like the dragons game....the dogs are better than that and do have the patience that the dragons were unable to display
  
  The way we been playing we should run away with it if we are able to come out firing and get some good go forward. We will need to play our expansive game (2nd phase) which has been a good recipe thus far....it tires the opposition and breaks down their defensive structure.
  Most importantly though is our Attitude in defence must be as good or better as past weeks or they could punish us
  
  Eels by 16
  
  GO the mighty blue and gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clive September 25, 2009 at 9:41am

Im quietly confident our forwards can dominate the dogs,if you look at their pack compared to that of the Dragons which contained Weyman,Poore and Creagh who were arguably amongst the years best forwards i think the Dragons have a distinct advantage.We managed to contain the Dragons so if the boys turn up we should be able to do a job on the dogs.I actually think it would be a good tactic for Fui to really go after Hannant early because although hes in good form i dont think he has any mongrel in him at all,with a guy like Moi Moi chasing him he might just go missing and drop his bundle.Abit like Luke bailey when Webb took it to him.
waldo September 25, 2009 at 11:25am

Thanks for the analysis, it's comprehensive and insightful. I think Canterbury are not as coordinated and fluid as the Eels. When Parra held out the Dragons for the first 20 minutes (while the Dragons were sharpening their axe) they showed their defense has hardened. So as you say, hold them out then cut 'em to bits.
Also, we received a blessing when Gus the Goose tipped the Dogs last night.
Makybe Steva September 25, 2009 at 11:57am

Ennis is the key. If he isn't contained, we're in for a long night!
Bourbon Man September 25, 2009 at 1:52pm

Just a quick tactical point, I'd like to see Caylo win the toss and kick off! We saw from the Broncos/Dragons game last week that the first defensive set can really set the tone for the game, and let's not kid ourselves, there's no way the Dogs forwards are going to be smashed like they were in our Round 20 clash. They'll be up for it and keen to dominate up-front from the kick off.

The Dogs have had the week off and potentially could take 10-15 mins to get into the rhythm of the game. All the more reason why a good strong driving set in defense, pinning the Dogs to their line from the kick-off could well sow the seeds of doubt in their minds early in the contest when, in my opinion, they are at their most vulnerable.

Of course, if they kick off, we can expect an absolutely torrid and brutal first set from them in D - just as the Dragons experienced, and an early error WILL prove costly!
- 1Eyed Eel > Bourbon Man September 25, 2009 at 2:09pm
  
  Who remembers that match Ben Hannant played for Brisbane when first tackle he just came out and smashed whoever it was carrying the ball. First day, I ever took notice of Hannant and said to myself - now there's a tough player. He'll definitely lead by example tonight
- Staggering > Bourbon Man September 25, 2009 at 2:54pm
  
  Fui Fui's opening 20 minutes will be crucial tonight. The Dogs will know what is coming from him and they will be up for it. It is once he goes off that the Eels will need to be wary as they lose a lot of impact until he comes back on. At the same time that he goes off Eastwood comes on for the Dogs and he has had massive impact for them when he comes on.
  
  I think this period of the game could be decisive. The Eels have been great front runners in their run so far but if they fall behind by 8 or more points do they have the experience to come back??
  
  The Dogs have been great all year at grinding out matches once they are in front.
  - 1Eyed Eel > Staggering September 25, 2009 at 4:04pm
    
    We finally agree. I think it either team gets more than six points in font I don't think they will be run down.
Ross September 25, 2009 at 11:01pm

That they did.. to no avail :-)

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