If Brad Arthur were deposed tomorrow, you'd hardly find an Eels fan who would disagree.
Only 18 months after a somewhat unexpected grand final appearance, Parramatta's fall from grace has been swift and brutal.
A massive injury toll cruelled their 2023 season, despite showing glimpses of the side they could be. Despite a pre-season that promised improvement, the side has done nothing but regress, and now the pressure mounts on head coach Arthur.
While injuries to Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson have had, and will continue to impact the side, they have been no excuse for some of the insipid displays put on by the blue and gold.
Two second half maulings at the hands of the Raiders and an extremely under-manned Dolphins led Arthur to state his side were only part-time footballers.
A more spirited yet still mediocre performance against Manly showed there was still some fight in the side.
More than there has been at fellow cellar dwellers Souths, anyway.
But as much as Arthur has called on his charges to step up, the calls for Arthur to change aren't quite as loud, nor is he being quizzed about it in the media.
Arthur's classic tactic is to bash and barge using his middle forwards to plow a hole through the opposition's centre. Maybe he's a student of the likes of Alexander the Great, or Napoleon, who would famously use their most damaging weapon (For Alexander, his cavalry, for Napoleon, his cannons) to attack the opposition's middle and cause them to break?
However, he probably wasn't paying full attention as both legendary generals were known for their flexibility and adaptability. For Alexander it was his ability to draw out and decimate the Persians at Issus and Gaugamela, for Napoleon, it was his ongoing battles against Austria and the 1st and 2nd coalitions where his manouevrability allowed him to separate and demolish opposing armies.
There have been valid criticisms over Arthur's squad. Concerns over the ages of his middle and edge forwards, while in the backs they haven't replaced those that have come before.
But further thought should be given to how Arthur is using the players at his disposal.
A lot of sides are moving away from having their forwards doing all the dirty work. Penrith use their back 5 in yardage to allow their forwards to attack in good ball, and pile on defensive pressure, the Raiders did the same to great effect against the Eels.
Parramatta is clearly vulnerable both on the edges and, as the game winds on, through the middle, particularly around the ruck.
Arthur could try to assuage this by either copying the same tactic, or reduce the minutes of his ageing middle forwards and use some of the younger cattle such as Wiremu Greig and Luca Moretti to inject greater energy into the side.
Plenty of focus too should be on Mark O'Neill. He may have been the one in charge when Parramatta executed a squad refresh in 2019/20, but you can't rest on decisions made 5 years ago.
A cursory look at what the best sides were doing last year should have been enough to realise a change in both tactics and personnel were needed to pick things back up in 2024.
Alas, none of that has happened.
Arthur's current strategy is like trying to use the Schlieffen Plan when Blitzkrieg is far more effective.
The coming month could very well decide Parramatta's future and Arthur's fate. Brisbane, Melbourne, Souths and Cronulla. Only against the Rabbitohs would the Eels be favourites and there's no guarantee they will actually show up.
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Poppa at 73 I have trouble remembering the names of some of the groups I belong to. Who knows Bennet may end up selecting a cleaner at the club to play centre . Maybe a bit like Trumpy who often thinks he won the election against Obama
Well he was not up against Obama, but I get your drift, Lol
We are going through some crazy times Poppa. Hope you and Karen are doing ok
Parra have reached the razor's edge in nearly every season under BA. Are people not sick of this Groundhog's Day, deju vu, rubbish yet?
2014 we spent the whole season on the razor's edge. After 13 games we are 8-5. A good record. We lose the next 4 straight to sit 8-9. Back to the edge. We climb back up only to lose the final 2 games by big scorelines and miss the playoffs.
2015 the best we managed was 3 straight wins. But we also lost 4 straight once. 3 straight once. And 2 straight losses 3 separate occasions. More BA razor's edge nonsense.
2016 the best we managed was 3 straight wins. Then 3 straight losses once and 2 straight another 2 times. More razor's edge.
2017 we found some form with 6 straight wins and another 3 straight wins twice. But we also lost 4 straight once and 2 straight losses twice, one of them to crash out of the playoffs. More Razor's edge.
2018 we began the season by losing 6 straight games. BA should have lost his job here. The NRL meta changed as there was a penalty crackdown and teams started taking advantage by choosing to take the 2 often. Parra didn't make this adjustment until later in the season when we had already lost 6 straight games and the season was cooked. Again, BA was too slow to adapt. Reactionary, but too late. By the time he changed his tactics, the penalty crackdown was over and his team had to adjust again. It didn't go well. We also lost 5 straight this year. And another 3 straight losses twice. He should have been sacked. But he wasn't. Alarm bells begin to ring. The best form we managed this year was 2 straight wins.
2019 was our resurgance. I remember this season fondly, but the data shows more razor's edge. The best we managed was 4 straight wins. We also had 3 straight wins once. But we also had a bad skid of 3 straight losses once and 2 straight once. Not to mention the capitulation against Melbourne in the finals where we got hammered 32-0 and had zero answers for them. BA's finals regression becomes more obvious here.
2020 was our shot, we had the roster. We added RCG and Matto. Our defense was the best it's been under BA. Our attack was weirdly not as good though. It was a shorter season and we had our best win percentage under BA. We won 5 straight to start the season. We also had 3 straight wins twice more. We didn't lose back to back games until the finals came, where we capitulated in the second half of both games to get smashed by Melbourne and Souths, despite leading earlier in both games. BA's finals failure becomes too obvious to ignore here. His finals record is now 1-5. His sides show an inability to win close finals games, and even to compete for 80 minutes in finals games. Serious questions should have been asked after this finals capitulation. But on we go.
2021 we caught fire at times. We had some hot streaks. 4 straight wins to start. Another 5 straight and 3 straight wins on other occasions. But late in the season we lost 4 straight to fall from the top 4 and only finished 6th after starting the year on fire. We narrowly beat newcastle in the first finals game, then narrowly lost to Penrith in the second. We were kind of cheated by the refs in that one, but a better side may have taken the referee out of the equation. Brad's finals record is now 2-6. Still ugly.
2022 was the closest he got. Even though we made the GF, the best we managed was 3 straight wins, doing it twice. We didn't lose any back to back games this year, but we lost to the Panthers twice in the finals, as Brad had no way of getting his team to go to a higher gear. His finals record is now 4-8. Still ugly.
2023 we regress horribly back to the mean. We had a good run of 5 straight wins in the middle of the year. But we also lost 3 straight games once, and 2 straight games on 3 other occasions. We finished 10th and missed the finals. Brad should have been sacked here as well. This team did not respond well to a grand final loss at all.
2024 the ink is yet to dry. But the early signs are bad. We've won 2 straight once. But we've also lost 2 straight twice already. Our team looks old, devoid of new ideas, with no depth. Somebody find us a new coach please?
Is anyone else sick of living on the razor's edge yet?
Yep I'm completely done with it.
I was saying in another thread that I've been seeing Eels games highlights from the past few years pop up on my YouTube lately. In almost all of them the commentators remark how the Eels are bouncing back after a bad loss or a horror stretch. We're never the best side in the comp, we're always up and down needing a small miracle to become a contender. I'm totally over it.
Under Arthur, we've had 49 blowout losses (18-point margin or more). That one-and-only 6-straight-win stretch was over 6 years ago (2017). We've always been on Sybil's razor: up & down, on & off, often week-to-week, half-to-half.
It's just the sharp falling-off-a-cliff regression since 2022 that has been too much to bear, now, as we're no longer winning enough to make the finals which countered all that.
Wins over the last 12 months plus have been small-margin wins, often grinding affairs, whereas our losses have often been huge beatings. That also hasn't helped.
So, unless we have some sort of a cattle-culture-coach transplant, we'll probably have some sort of renaissance at some point this year and then fall off a cliff again at some point.
It's a fact many power metrics for players decline in the late 20s-30s. It's already started for us. Our yardage, and power running game have fallen off a cliff (ranked 15th; we used to be top-four 2019-2023) despite being top-three for possession.
Gutho is our top yardage maker metres per game but bottom 41% for fullbacks. Our four wingers used (Harper, Sivo, Simmo, Russell) form four of the bottom eight wingers for yardage per game. Sivo's yardage per game is only ahead of part-time Storm winger, WIshart and Munro (who lasted 19 minutes this season). So, practically he makes the least metres per game of any full-time winger in the competition. Paolo just makes the top-20 list for front rowers as our top prop for metres per game.
So, we're going to regress even further than the current predicament over the next few years without some significant recruitment or hope our juniors come good (a real long shot in the short run).
HOE that blow out stat just shows just how far out of being quality we are...forty bloody nine blow out matches. It's the one stat that highlights the coaching staffs inability to lift the side and bring the best out in all of them on a consistent basis.
part time coaching ??
just don't see consistent blow outs for teams with good coaches on payroll.
Razor on a yo-yo
Some good observations there HOE. I think having another better performing club to follow on the quiet Is how to survive disappointments with Parra..My memories of the Jack Gibson era still keep me hanging in there. It must be difficult for those who hadn't lived through those times to keep fronting up.
I can still vaguely remember the Grand final against Newcastle where we were expecting to do well. 20 nil against us in the first 20 minutes.
Maybe burning out Cumberland Oval was the wrong thing to do. Probably ancient native sacred ground having revenge on us
There's plenty don't worry and regardless of the stats it's not his fault...
Questions I have for these dickheads is:
If BA as coach has no effect on the results of a year why have a coach?
And when is it time to sack a coach and what KPIs should they have?
lol soooooo true
and they are " real fans "
we are not
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