Match Preview: Eels have the right recipe

So this it. The Grand Final. One more victory and Parramatta will have completed what will be remembered as one of the greatest Premiership campaigns of all time.The Eels will have strung together wins in 11 of their last 12 games. They will be the first side ever to come from eighth and win the Premiership. They will be the first side to have ever beaten the first, second, third and fourth ranked teams on their way through the finals series. It's the fairy tale that has captured the hearts and minds of not just all Parramatta fans, but most of Sydney.Only one little thing stands in their way. The Melbourne Storm.In many ways, these two teams are similar. They both boast some of the games most exciting, brilliant players. Both sides have incredibly talented fullbacks who can produce performances that defy belief. And yet for all their brilliance, both sides have based their winning streaks on highly effective, committed defence.Yet, these sides are also as different as they come. The Eels are known for their off-the-cuff, spontaneous play. The Storm are regarded as the most disciplined, structured side in the competition.Melbourne will no doubt base their performance on their forwards. They have a big, physical pack and they will be aiming to do what St George did to us in Round 26. In that match, the Dragons got up very quickly and aggressively on Fuifui Moimoi and shutting down his go-forward effectively blunted our entire forward performance which is so reliant on the damage that Moimoi's rampaging charges causes to the opposition defensive line. However, as Ben Hannant and the Bulldogs found out shutting Moimoi out of the match is a tough ask. While they did a fine job of controlling him early as the match wore on, Moimoi started making more metres and causing more damage and by the second half he was ripping the Dogs to shred.For Melbourne, it's also important that they dominate the forwards because that's the only way to really stop our second-phase play. They will be trying to dominate the tackles and tie up the ball, as well controlling the ruck so as the slow down the play as much as possible. It's something that Melbourne does better than anyone and its really the foundation of their game.However, it also represents their Achilles heel. Because they are so good in the ruck area, the Storm retreat very quickly. That makes them particularly susceptible to second-phase play. Towards the end of the season, Newcastle put on 26 unanswered points in the first 50 minutes against the Storm, largely off the back of their offloads. Newcastle produced 13 offloads in that first half of football and it blew the Storm off the park. Too many sides think they have to match the Storm in the middle of the park.This season, only three sides have been able to get their offload tally up around the 20 mark. That was Newcastle (22) in Round 23, St George (24) in Round 21 and Canberra (19) in Round 16. In all three of those matches the Storm were comprehensively beaten.Without doubt, Parramatta then have the game to beat the Storm. I'm sure Bellamy will have his players hold a little more in defence than they usually would, but the fact is if you can get some passes away it stops the Storm from controlling the ruck area and all of their defensive structures start to break down.For while, they are so strong in the middle of the park their backline is not nearly as solid. Both Finch and Cronk can rack up missed and ineffective tackles, Will Chambers is still relatively inexperienced defending in the centres, Greg Inglis can be lazy, Turner is small and Dane Neilsen is a rookie. Like Parramatta, Melbourne's defenders move up and in and then rely on cover defenders, but as the Dragons showed if you can get their defence a little stretched there is always the opportunity for the cut-out pass to the winger. The Eels also have excellent finishers out wide who will be difficult for the cover defenders to bring down.Brett Finch remains their biggest weakness in defence and there is always opportunities for a good line between him and Inglis. If the Eels can apply good pressure, Feleti Mateo is definitely the man who can exploit that weakness and he will be near impossible to stop if he gets the chance to run close to the line. I also like the idea of Ben Smith running on that fringe.All of these plans of course, are reliant on us matching up in the forwards, getting away the offloads and being able to apply pressure, which won't be easy to do given the strength of Melbourne's central defence. I think in order to combat that we'll see Parramatta play wider than they usually do. I think Matt Keating is going to be very key for us early in the game. He has one of the better longer passes from dummy half in the game. I also think we'll see our forwards pass a lot before the line. It is imperative that we our forwards play with a lot of variety and use their skills, rather than just bashing the ball up, which will be a sure-fire recipe for defeat.The problem is, all of these tactics, involve a significant level of risk and increase the chance of errors. This is obviously going to be key for the Eels. If they can maintain a completion rate up above 75 per cent they're going to be very difficult to beat, but if they drop too much ball, then Melbourne just have too many good players to hold out for prolonged periods of times.Defensively, the Eels just need to keep doing what they're doing. The experts keep talking about how Grothe and Reddy will be targetted but comparatively they have been excellent throughout this finals series. Every team's pet play is to work to that flank so you have to expect points to come that way. Both players have to continue to push up, because if you let Greg Inlis run at you at pace he is going to beat you every time.I have said for the last two weeks that my biggest fear is the kick behind the line and that's still my biggest worry. As was seen last week, the Bulldogs scored two tries from kicks and few teams score as many tries from kicks as the Storm do.While Jarryd Hayne is of course going to be key for us in attack, his positioning in defence is going to be absolutely key to try and prevent those tries from kicks. It won't be easy because the Storm score just as many tries from kicks under the posts as they do out on the wing, with Billy Slater more often than not the target in the middle of the field.The other key factor defensively will be the requirement to just keep following the play. Melbourne are quite adept at the offload themselves when they get on a roll they always have players in support and rely on you just running out of defenders. Again, thats been a highlight of Parramatta in defence - our cover defence has just been phenomenal.The battle of the fullbacks will of course be a highlight. I think the Storm will focus on maintaining a straight line in defence because when you approach Hayne with a jagged defence that's when he cuts through you. What that will do though is open up more opportunities for Parra to kick through the line and chase because there will be less cover defence hanging around out back to clean that sort of stuff up. I won't be surprised at all if Hayne produces one of his famous chip and chases for a try. Meanwhile, the Eels just need to follow Slater like a hawk because where ever Slater is, that's where the play generally goes.I think we can do it. If we keep offloading and the passes stick, and we do enough to limit kicks from tried I think our recipe of second-phase play and a rock-solid defensive line is exactly the recipe needed to beat the Storm.1Eyed Tip: Eels by 12First try scorer: Daniel Mortimer

Replies

Fui Fui October 2, 2009 at 1:58pm

great preview phil, love the depth you've put into it.

"This season, only three sides have been able to get their offload tally up around the 20 mark... In all three of those matches the Storm were comprehensively beaten." I think that statistic says alot.
- 1Eyed Eel > Fui Fui October 2, 2009 at 2:07pm
  
  Totally. I love that stat!
Bourbon Man October 2, 2009 at 2:21pm

Talking of kicking to Hayne, I firmly believe that's what the opposition ought to do. Note that Hayne has made all his big breaks from the kick return - i.e. Bulldogs in Round 20, Tigers in Rounds 24, Saints in the 1st final - after receiving a pass from Luke Burt!

When faced with a line of defence on the kick return, Hayne submit. I'd be kicking to Hayne and presenting a good chase.
- 1Eyed Eel > Bourbon Man October 2, 2009 at 2:31pm
  
  I would actually kick to Eric Grothe. He takes a while to get the ball so you can get a good line in front of him and stop him from doing too much damage on the kick return. And then you nullify his really effective hitup on that second ruck that is so valuable to us. Kicking to Burt IMO is the best option for us because it gives us both Jarryd and Eric to contribute quality 2nd and 3rd rucks
ParraNutta October 2, 2009 at 3:02pm

Phil, I just want to say thank you for your week by week pre- finals analysis. You do a great job and I love your work. You have really given us one-eyed eels something to look forward to.

I must admit I have come to rely upon your pre game assessments and predicitons because the scary thing is so far they have all become true.

I hope you have one left in you my friend. fingers crossed.

Go for Glory you mighty EELS!
- 1Eyed Eel > ParraNutta October 2, 2009 at 3:17pm
  
  Thanks mate, appreciate it! We'll just ignore my Round 26 preview...
  
  Fingers crossed. Toes crossed. And anything else I can find crossed. I can't believe how nervous I'm getting.
waldo October 2, 2009 at 3:30pm

Yeah, thanks for a great series of articles and a realistic last review ~ until the second last line. Parra by 2, first try, Robson.
Nuggetboy October 2, 2009 at 4:31pm

Yeah, thanks Phil. Great article...

Just got work off and am flying to Sydney for the Grand Final... Can't Wait...
Aaron Chapman October 2, 2009 at 5:36pm

Only 2 more sleeps Woooo can't wait
Clive October 2, 2009 at 8:25pm

Top article Phil,i really enjoy reading your previews and alot of the so called experts in the daily newspapers could learn a thing or two about how to put together an indepth match analysis from you mate.