The rebuild is in its early days, and we're still last with the worst defence and second-worst attack overall for the season to date. But Saturday's courageous round five performance against the Dragons is encouraging - on the back of two-clutch plays by Lomax and the team-plus-coaching-staff playing as one.
It's continuing an improvement trend over the last three rounds after our first two diabolical rounds against the Storm and Tigers.
Part of that is to do with staying in the fight. Last year in sharp contrast, despite having experienced competitors like Gutherson and RCG, we consistently imploded in the second half in almost every game bar a small handful. The early symptoms of that started in round one.
Against the Dragons, we fought-back from 20-8 down with 20 odd minutes to go. Compare that to the last Dragons' game late last year. We were ahead 44-12 with 12 minutes to go. What happened? Saints scored 28-0 in barely ten minutes to almost snatch the game. Another mind-blowing 2024 implosion. Ryles is starting to address that.
In terms of health checks, I won't be looking outside the NRL level, off-field governence, fiscal health or in the junior levels where we're healthy overall.
Let's stand back for a second. In NRL history, the Eels have made the finals 14 times in twenty-seven years (52% of the time).
Eels' NRL History
In every one of those finals appearances, it's been on the back of top-eight defence, but in half of those we had worse than top-eight attack (7 / 14 finals appearances we had attack ranked 9-12th).
The moral of the story is: get your defence in order. No surprises really. We hear from former players talk about defence being the most difficult part of the game and a reflection of attitude.
The other thing of note is the Brian Smith era was the best defensively - thus offering the most opportunities for success. We had a minor renaissance from 2019-2022, but the decline started post-2020 and has kept going downhill. This gives you a clue at the real task facing Ryles and the club.
So back on the improvement theme.
We conceded 44 points per game in the first two rounds. 21 points per game since then over three rounds.
Gus Gould , in his most recent Six Tackles podcast earlier this week, offered further insights into "good defence".
It Starts with Attack
“Defence for me starts with, or a lot of it, starts with your attack," Gus casually noted sipping on his coffee.
“A lot of people say get your defence in order and everything will come. I’m a little bit the other way."
But that's not the flashy stuff we associate with attack.
“[It’s about] Go forward, control the ball, kick, chase, tackle. That’s your plan. That’s your philosophy," Gus explains.
“I don't care who you're playing, where you're playing or what time of day against what sort of conditions or what sort of opposition.”
“If don't get those things right, you're not going to be competitive.”
“If you can always give them the ball [where you want] with a kick and chase and pin them down near their own end of the field to start their set of six then your defensive line is under considerably less pressure.”
“That's where Penrith have just won four comps in a row. It's why the Melbourne Storm have been so successful over the years.”
“They call it high-speed grind. Grind your opposition down, break their will, and break their spirit and then your defence is under significantly less pressure.”
For Gus all that comes before you worry about good defensive systems, the wrestle, slowing the ruck, tackle techniques - the stuff normally associated with defence.
It also goes hand in hand with the game manager and a good kicking game.
High-Speed Grind Masters
“One of the keys to the Penrith defence over the last 5 years has been their tremendous ball control. The controlled kicking game from Nathan Cleary and Jerome Laui and the great kick chase that they use to pin the opposition down the end of the field."
"So they're very rarely having to defend their own end and when they do they're nowhere near as tied as with the what they would be now the teams that don't control the ball," Gus said.
There is a bit of the old “kick it to the seagulls” Jack Gibson mantra.
He pointing out the struggles of a Clear-less Panthers upset by the Rabbits (28-0 at half-time) and a Hughes-less Storm were upset against the Dragon - they're not the same without their game manager.
“Unless you've got that game managing [you're in trouble]. Because if you don't have that person there then the game management has got to be handled by the coaching staff and players with less experience," Gus noted also pointing the Eels to support his views.
"If Mitchell Moses was playing, they [the Eels] wouldn’t be where they are. They’d be a hell of a lot more competitive and composed.”
True it may be, but our Moses-less Dragon clash on Saturday was our best example of what Gus is talking about to date - in a long time.
Better go-forward. Better kick chases. Plenty of energy and gutso across the board with and without the ball. The inexperienced-Hawkins kicking on the front foot saw us try to pin them down in their red zone - something we haven't been doing for a long time. It helped our defence, which also had more sting than we've seen in years gone by. Our ball control wasn't always there, and we got pinged by penalties early (like we did against Manly) but much of the good stuff was there.
Junior's leadership (above) was on show too. When was the last time he played 72 minutes? He wound the clock back to his mid 20s, whacking in defence and running hard. He's been playing more minutes than he has for more than five years. Still hate small ball? Fox's and Walker's experience also help especially without Williams. Walker's creativity and ruck-man-ship helps steer the ship which helps our go-forward as well as well as freeing up Dylan Brown's running game.
Tellingly - it was a rare game the opposition made more errors than us. That wasn't all luck. It was all of the above and Ryley Smith's terrier-like pressure.
In comparison, it was interesting watching the reigning four-peat champions against the Cowboys. The return of Nathan Cleary helped immensely, but it didn't fix everything.
They reminded me of us in some ways.
Poor ball control. Lacking go-forward. Below-strength. New faces. Lacking cohesion. Cleary's often kicking on the back foot. Ordinary kick chases. A shadow of their last five years and unsurprisingly, their defence suffers - leaking almost 30 points per game in the first four rounds. It's too early to write them off. They could have won that game but found different ways to lose it, when it was in the balance. They've almost forgotten how to win. Losing is as much as a habit as winning. Also, all great cycles end. Will it end for the Panthers this year? Perhaps. But they have plenty of Origin-class in their ranks and out. So, you'd expect them to get off the canvas once they get it all together. Time will tell.
There's plenty of lessons there.
The Future
Will all this improvement continue? Hopefully. But with our young squad, plentiful new faces, and without Moses we should expect inconsistency and we might not see the best of us this year or the next. It's also about learning to win without Moses - against all odds and despite being a largely young work in progress. Every week we have had 6 to 7 of our 17 who have had a handful to a dozen or so NRL games which makes Junior's, Walker's, the Lomax's, The Fox's, William's, Hopgood's influence crucial.
How long will the rebuild take? Gus' Dogs rebuild with Laundy's help took four years (started 2021). Ciraldo's first year (2023) was the third year of the rebuild - ending with the worst defence and second-worst attack. And the Dogs defence leaked 455-504 points every year over four years of missing the finals leading up to Gus' appointment (2021). We leaked over 700 points last year. There are some clues as to the attitude re-build and re-adjustment required.
We have the makings of a gutsy footy team. Long-term much will hinge on future key R&R and development decisions for 2026-27 and beyond when most of the top-thirty squad's contracts expire. It also depends on the whole club being aligned top-to-toe, on the same bus, focused and practising good habits - in spite of external pressures outside their four walls and any stone-bombs thrown on the shopfront windows. If not, the whole bus can get bush-whacked.
Lomax epitomizes the passion and guts we need
Stats Snapshot R1-R4
| Rank | Av. pg | R1 Storm | R2 Tigers | R3 Dogs | R4 Manly | R5 Dragons | |
| With the ball | |||||||
| Possession | 10th | 49.4% | 50-50% | 49-51% | 49-51% | 45-55% | 54-46% |
| Run Metres | 17th | 1482.7m | 1267-1899 | 1567-1707 | 1662-1584 | 1433-1891 | 1811-1610 |
| Runs | 12th | 178.6 | 152-186 | 172-182 | 192-203 | 172-207 | 202-190 |
| Post Contact (m) | 17th | 491.1m | 423-475 | 541-513 | 470-456 | 412-590 | 608-542 |
| Completions | 10th | 77.50% | 79-76% | 73-82% | 77-86% | 73-86% | 83-73% |
| Linebreaks | 14th | 3.6 | 3-9 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 2-6 | 6-7 |
| Tackle Breaks | 16th | 27.6 | 13-41 | 33-41 | 35-35 | 34-29 | 23-31 |
| Kick metres | 10th | 577.8m | 566-468 | 643-387 | 886-1140 | 576-779 | 472-537 |
| Discipline | |||||||
| Errors | 7th | 11.6 | 12-11 | 13-14 | 12-5 | 12-10 | 9-12 |
| Penalties conced. | 12th | 5.2 | 4-4 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Off the ball | |||||||
| Tackles | 11th | 342.8 | 285-290 | 326-327 | 381-391 | 379-308 | 315-351 |
| Missed Tackles | 7th | 35.4 | 41-13 | 41-33 | 35-35 | 29-34 | 31-23 |
| Ineffective tackles | 7th | 15.2 | 28-17 | 13-17 | 7-20 | 29-34 | 18-18 |
| Linespeed (PostC) | 10th | 5.92 | 5.55-7.66 | 5.97-6.56 | 6.21-5.56 | 5.94-6.29 | 5.92-5.62 |
Stats from nrl.com. Issues are in bold, good results are underlined. Summary: We have issues in most areas, but there has been improvement over the last three weeks.
R1-R5 Linespeed (pre-contact metres/run) best to worst
| Rank | Team | Av. R1-R5 |
| 1 | Cowboys | 6.48 |
| 2 | Storm | 6.46 |
| 3 | Roosters | 6.21 |
| 4 | Panthers | 6.18 |
| 5 | Dragons | 6.16 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles | 6.14 |
| 7 | Sharks | 6.08 |
| 8 | Dolphins | 6.03 |
| 9 | Warriors | 6.02 |
| 10 | Eels | 5.92 |
| 11 | Knights | 5.84 |
| 12 | Wests Tigers | 5.78 |
| 13 | Bulldogs | 5.77 |
| 14 | Broncos | 5.76 |
| 15 | Titans | 5.71 |
| 16 | Rabbitohs | 5.68 |
| 17 | Raiders | 5.53 |
| Av. NRL Linespeed | 5.98 |
Stats used to compile this are taken from nrl.com
Replies
You know if we are relying on Moses to right us we are screwed.What we should be doing and JR touched on this 2 weeks ago when the boot was being put into DB is things need to happen around DB for him to be effective and be that player.It's no different for Moses.We need to get the pieces and structure around Moses correct so the halves can both play.
I saw similar a few years back when we lost to South's in the semi everyone had the knives out for BA and completely missed the Wayne Bennett quip telling the media the blokes next door had to learn how to win these big games.
Its much like this discussion around the attack it's not here DB here Moses here's the ball win the game it' just doesn't work like that.
Parra's #1 issue right now is errors we can't compete if we continue to make these errors we don't have the cohesion and strike in attack right now to comeback.
Yep, Coryn. True. Gus said the same. Moses won't fix everything, but he will help immensely. He's our game manager General. Hawkins is doing better than I expected though, but he needs to be on the front-foot. He won't be anywhere near as effective on the back-foot. Even Cleary wasn't as effective on the back foot against the Cows who were up for the game.
Even with Cleary back against the Cows, they were but still off. Poor ball control. Ordinary go-forward at times - missing the Edwards and To'os. Too many new faces. Often, Cleary was kicking on the back -foot. Often ordinary kick chases. They found ways to lose. I don't watch every game of theirs, but I haven't seen them like this since 2019 when they were bottom of the table in R10, 2019. It shocked me. They didn't get bashed like last week 28-0 at half-time though. But I actually saw a bit of us in them. Still, they're got Origin class around the paddock, so I wouldn't write them off.
Honestly, I'm not really as worried about our lack of flashy stuff with the ball. Yet.
There have been signs of potential in our attack over the last three weeks. The week before against the Eagles, there were times when Lomax and Iongi on that right edge looked Sharp. Even Slater and Joey were saying that. In fact, if we were more composed we could've led at half-time. We bombed 2-3 opportunities. It wasn't just the last 5 minutes or so as most assume. Our site wouldn't agree, sure, but just saying what I saw in moments - and it aligned with what former players also saw including a former international who told me exactly that.
If we get our defence right - which relies on the with-the-ball stuff go-forward, kick chases, ball control - the full blossoming attack will come in time with confidence and cohesion. Maybe not this year fully, though. We saw that issue in the Dog's third year of rebuild (Ciraldo's first year): their attack was second-worst. It took four years. So, if we can do it in less than that, we're doing okay.
If the team put in like they did on Saturday, they will win more games. Canberra will be tough this week at TIO. The last few matches there against them have been close 6 and 8 point affairs (even if we won both) and they blasted us off the paddock last year at GIO 41-8 (R5, 2024). It's probably better than playing the Broncos, Dolphins or Cows though up there.
Great write-up HOE
I always knew once BA left, we were going to be in a rebuild. So many areas to address, systems to change, squad to overhaul.
What I was hoping for though, that it would be a quick one. JR certainly ripped the Band-Aid off in one go, as evident with the turnover of players in one off-season and holding players performances accountable from week one, something not seen in a decade.
We are in great position, salary, cap wise moving forward. I am confident there will be more astute signings this off-season and deadwood moved on.
Thst dreaded"the five year plan" I think it can be fast tracked to another full off-season. People can't really expect any more than that, Just my opinion.
As long as we stay on the current projectory until seasons end, I will rate that as a successful first season.
Bert, I agree. Good points. Who do you see as the deadwood. To me that is an interesting question moving forward for Ryles and how he manages to move them on. Some on my deadwood list are unfortunatley contracted to us next year.
Hi EA, any player off-contract this year is irrelevant as that decision is up to JR.
Unfortunately we do have some players that I also class as deadwood but contracted for 2026.
Just to use Ryan Matterson as one example, any player on our books who were signed on overs and we are not getting value for money. I think apart from his contract value, Matterson was identified early by Ryles he wants gone to build a team first culture. I didn't watch but by some reports on here he played well in Cup this week. If he is not selected in the 17 this week it is a clear sign he is not wanted or valued at the club. It's not back to the dark days of "over-head-projectors" where we had to pay so many players money to play at other clubs to leave. I think it is a select few. Keeping with ripping that band-aide off quickly as we are in a good salary cap space, I would chip in to move them on ASAP. If Matterson really is a motivated professional athlete, his ego would not like the demotion to NSW Cup and would have his agent looking at other opportunities, being a known Judas he would want us to tip in a fair amount. If that figure is too high, we keep him on the books, play him in Cup or demote him further to set an example of the new standards of the club. Ryan will probably take a head knock in Cup and seek a medical retirement.
yeah I think you nailed it.
Im not convinced on Penisni myself. I'm not sure the $$ he is on, but he has his player option enacted for next year already. Perhaps we have to have some lower tiered money earners in the squad. However I find him to fit the bill as deadwood and a candidate for bandaid ripping process.
The Matterson issue surely gets answered either this week or next.
Thanks, amigo, and great insights as usual Bert.
Hopefully, we pick up some astute R&Rs as you noted. That's critical to getting this aircraft off the ground 2026-27 and beyond.
Walker was out of the blue, but a clever signing, with his ruckmanship, communication and creativity, providing experience for the spine and freeing up the likes of Brown and outside men. Run Dylan Run.
As we don't have the advantages of other clubs via lifestyle glamour location, immediate premiership windows, or sugar daddy hand-outs. Because of that we need to work harder and smarter with R&R and face more challenges keeping our juniors. We have to do it the hard way.
Recruiting hungry talents like Hopgood, Iongi and Ryley Smith - all Panthers' juniors (along with Hands) - with paths blocked at NRL level is one good strategy. Another is finding personal reasons. The COE is another sweetener. Hopefully, we can provide other financial instruments and incentives outside the cap in time. But finding these tycoons that are Eels' fans is not easy. They don't grow on trees and in working class or middle class areas in general. Critics of what the club don't have are not living on planet earth.
One area the club needs to improve imo is also "character qualification" - something I keep talking about. But if you look at the Storm, Panthers, and now Dogs that's something they've been really good at. Even if they do it in different ways. I think Dr Goldman's assessment tools (top US sports' psychologist that has worked with leading US sports CEOs and athletes in NBA/NFL like Stephen Curry) that we have started to use for juniors is an attempt to move in this direction and which qualifies footy IQ, spatial awareness, learning types, strengths and weakness . Small steps.
Just my two cents. Could be wrong.
The character thing around players is huge.
At the nfl combine while the masses dial into the underwear Olympics the teams could care less about that they deep dive the character using the interview and the wonderlic test as examples but another HUGE one is the medical.They find out with there own medical professionals where the player is really at with health before investing there millions.
The interview they'll deep dive a players past using PIs ex FBI agents and alike to comb through a persons past talking to family ex teachers everything they can before pulling the trigger on a targeted talent.
Now I don't know if nrl teams have this sought of resourcing but the medical is really important and you could go back and interview the mentioned above past to if the player is the right fit for your team and club.
Coryn, exactly. 150% and then a double down. It is huge as you say. If it's me, I'm going full Monty on it too. Mariana Trench deep dives.
Eventually, NRL clubs will go down a similar route you're suggesting, and suspect it's already began.
I see it as inevitable if you want to protect the club from blindspots. It's the stuff you don't know that you don't know that is highly dangerous. Have to keep an open mind to all possibilities.
Humans tend to get over confident and assumptive and stay in safe zones and stuck in their ideologies until they hit a wall, and even then not many change out of nature and habits.
I know I don't know 99.99999%. Liberating...
I think in a practical manner this is what Bellamy does at the Storm. He is observing and assessing character right from the get go. It's been said that when he meets with a young player and his parents at a cafe if the player isn't polite and courteous to staff he won't be signed. If you watch that doco on Stan he stands back and observes how players respond in those military type tasks. Bellamy even commented that it's the little things he notices at that time that tell him more about a player than 6 months doing drills on the footy field.
Whether or not we need a professor conducting a battery of questionnaires on the players I'm not sure. There's ways and means which I think would yield better results. I agree this is critical in the selection process.
From a medical perspective pro cycling teams are incredibly in depth assessing riders. I was surprised to learn that even a thorough dental examination is done because poor oral hygiene has a detrimental impact on athletic performance.
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