2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.
Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.
Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.
The Good
Ample Opportunities
Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average), followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).
Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.
High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).
Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).
Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).
Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).
Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).
Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.
The Bad
We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.
- R10: Broncos at Commbank
- R11: Storm at Suncorp
- R12: Rabbits at Accor
- R13: Sharks at Commbank
- R14: Dogs at Accor
- R15: Roosters at Commbank
If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.
The Ugly
Ruts, Regression and Depression
The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.
I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.
Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).
That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).
Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game.
We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.
During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.
It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.
Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year
Getty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council
We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points.
Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D).
Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.
We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).
Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013
Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th).
That’s the worst under the Arthur era.
It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively).
Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.
We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).
Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th).
We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.
We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities.
There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.
A tale of Mercurial extremes
Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.
Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era
In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).
Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era
Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by.
In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017).
In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.
Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss.
In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week.
In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.
However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.
A scene from the exorcist.
49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff
In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.
“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”
The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.
After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.
Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths.
Seven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.
No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.
The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again
According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.
That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon.
Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.
Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.
It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.
King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.
Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.
Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).
Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.
Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).
Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ), Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).
Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.
Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.
Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).
Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).
Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).
All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.
Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.
Father Time is coming: Tick Tock
The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)
Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.
In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.
It’s a beautiful idea.
The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.
From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).
Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).
For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?
Some more good news, with some sweet and sour
Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.
Sue Coleman (above), a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).
The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.
In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.
Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.
O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.
“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.
That part of the report has aged well.
What will it take?
The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.
Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.
At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).
Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.
But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.
How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?
Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.
Replies
I think that's right... and a massive concern. They are corporate types, banker / finance mentality... I think they are absolutely linking the 2 i.e. good corp governance / good returns = success on footy field. As such, like you say... they wait. If you build it they will come. But they won't.
Fans are desperate for a change... becuase of bad results, a lack of a title for so damn long, BA being here so long... but also becuase of so many aspects of our play that are terrible and more so... becuase we just never change or evolve. We are absolutely stale and desperately need a divorce from all things Arthur.
Just a new coach the answer... no. I agree with others and the mentions of HOF roles e.g. a Cameron or Ponissi type... absolutely and I doubt anyone would argue it wouldn't be a huge benefit for us. However, even without that... we'd probably mostly all take a new coach if that's all we could have right now... especially Clint Eastwood. When the starting position is so ordinary, any change or chance of improvement is welcome. A great HOF is foundational and in many ways more important that the HC... but desperate times. "A drowning man will reach for a serpent"... not that Wayno is a snake but we are drowning, we'll take whatever the hell we can get.
A Bennett or Bellamy just doesn't come along often... it's the stuff you often say I wish about... or imagine if... well, it's here now but sadly we seem to be doing nothing. Almost once in a lifetime stuff and we're letting it go through to the keeper. Fastball with no movement over the plate and we're taking a strike rather than belt it out of the park. Maybe we're wrong and they are doing something... but it just doesn't seem so.
Pathways? On field results? Coach? Meh... our club financials are good... all that other stuff will just therefore work. Except it's not and it won't.
HOE I did hear this on Triple M. My immediate thought was "We really need a Ryan Girdler on our Board, desperately. I wonder if he'd consider it?"
Girdler just spoke plainly and stated the bleeding obvious. He's a former player who's played at the highest level, he's intelligent and articulate, in touch with the modern game and personally successful. His skillset is completely absent from our current Board. This lack of football experience could potentially be devastating for our club.
Given the skillset of our Board and CEO, how would they know if our pathways were working well? How would they compare that to other clubs? How do they know that MON is the best available? How would they know if BA is finished or if he can turn things around? The reality is they have no more insights into any of these things than the average punter in the stands. In fact, some punters may have significantly more football experience with coaching or playing at a junior level.
"It's probably a banker-like model: After you invest and diversifying for mitigating risks, you need to wait for the returns even if there is volality in the markets due to temporary circumstances. They're expecting returns, later." You statement, whilst hypothetical is telling. Because I think it's scarily accurate. They see everything through that corporate lense and professional sport simply does not work that way. I've no doubt this is precisely how the Board is thinking and given that we will do precisely nothing.
Anyone with Football smarts would recognise that season 2024 is finished for the Eels. Boards are meant to be looking long term. There is literally no reason to waste a single day with persisting with what hasn't worked given that the season is over. Part ways with BA, get Bennett signed, get a Football expert on the Board, point the microscope onto MON.
Your last paragraph assumes that we do have that football experience on the board. From their perspective, memberships are up, merchandise sales are up, crowd numbers are good, sponsors are coming on board and the books look good from a financial perspective. What's the problem? They don't have the desire to win a premiership because to do so could jeopardise the strong financial position we are currently in. Why pay out contracts for coaches and players who are not performing if we wear the hit financially? The financial position could be even better if we were winning, but that needs to come from a zero additional funding model.
Even with a board member with footy smarts, they would need to be very persuasive to bend the current thinking of the board. I don't think we will see any change until existing contracts run their course. Most of these end next year, so this unfortunately will be a waiting game until then.
Finny, those sets of number are not fixed ie. memberships are up, merchandise sales are up, crowd numbers are good, sponsors are coming on board
Crowd numbers are already nose diving, merchandise will take a bath (who wants to show their Parra supporters) I have a standing joke with people " I know how to make you feel sorry for me in 10 seconds".....How? ...." I'm a Parramatta supporter" Oh! you poor thing, it must be very difficult for you..... "Yes, but I have been married for nigh on 50 years, I know pain!"
PS I have no intention to stop supporting Parra or parting from wife. LOL
They might be down at the moment, but we "should" fare better with all players back on deck. We played very well in the first game against Manly, and that was the last time we had close to all our best players available. The board know this and seem to be riding the storm and not panicking. That's a sound business strategy, but they will need to re-evaluate in a few month's time, as you say if on-field performance is starting to erode business performance in the longer term then that will need to be rectified.
So is the success of the NRL team just one cog in the business strategy? It very much appears to be - unfortunately for us fans, who expect on-field performance to be the number one KPI.
Muttman, I suspect you're spot on.
Sarantinos, barely a month ago, said he knows the pathways aren't great and that the "expectation" is regardless of injuries we will have a "finals birth".
I'm sure you've heard that before.
Yet, what does the board do about that specifically?
It's more telling to watch what the priest does than listen to what he says (an old Slavic saying).
Girdler would most likely tell them they're dreaming if they don't act proactively. Girdler by the sounds of it, would go after Bennett now.
Yeah, I wonder if he'd be interested. He's probably enjoying his life too much. He might even joke about it like Cronk joked when he suggested Matty Johns should consider the Eels' coaching role.
Johns laughed and said, "I wouldn't take the pay cut".
My suspicion is our board is just falling back on what they were good at and what worked successfully for them in the past corporate world as "employees" with a wiz-bang financial toolkits. Not running football clubs. Sarantinos admitted he's learning things on the job after he first started five years ago.
Employees aren't usually tasked with high-risk, big-wheeled decisions (although they may have the capabilities for it). Imagine a guy like Frankie on the board as a "business owner" wielding any power. Or any "successful "business owner". They take ownership and can accept risks, failures and mistakes, but not navel-glazing, useless spiels and not learning from mistakes. "Listen, guys, stop yapping about our long-term "core principles" of whole club. Do that in your smoking break. We're Up Sheet Creek. This is what we need to do. No, not next Wednesday or in a month or two once we get back Moses & Gutho and Bennett is in the wind. Now."
Muttman, what about you? Interested? You'd help.
Also, a dumb question. Who are these 2749 voters that elect and re-elect PLC directors?
PLC directors like Coleman can also go back and forth on the PNRL board of protected species. Who's who in the zoo and how the PNRL conduct their nomination-voting committee is unclear to me. I can't find any PNRL annual reports after 2017 that would at least give clarity on who's on their board that isn't published publicly. It's probably deliberate. Post Reforms. If so, it's ironic one of the PLC's (the owner) five core principles is "openness".
The example above (which you probably already know of) is Powell's sign-off on on relected PLC directors Greg Monaghan and Sue Coleman (going to the PLC again) on Monday 26 Feb 2024. It's the day before they were announced in the 66th AGM get-together with presentations at Jack's Bar and Grill on the 27th.
Whenever I intuitively think of our boards, I get this feeling of a karmically-caused rigid structure, wrapped in red tape with useless but common political bollocks with its shoelaces tied together. Its own worst enemy despite many good traits.
Take it from an old bloke who ran a successful business for 50 years, if you accept an almost got there attitude and hire people that are not invested in the knowledge of your business , you go out the backdoor.
Maybe HOEs blog should be a primary contribution towards a professional review of the most important aspects of what this club is all about.
Beautiful rhetoric Taddy, but who is listening?
PS Hoe's commentary is very incisive and digs deep, I'm thinking they don't want to go very far down that "hole".
My favorite saying is they don't understand, that they don't understand (as everyone knows). I actually live by that because I quite often say I "dont understand" . I find inevitably when I say that probably half the people get annoyed or angry, why is that so?....I have been convinced for a long time, is that they either don't know themselves or they don't want you to know.....its all fucking bullshit! in other words, and if I am not mistaken that was what Hoe was basically saying, he is a much nicer person than me, a true gentleman. On the other hand I have been known to call a "spade a shovel".
Hoe, you are right of course, my wife always say's you catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar.... Lol
HOE, this is ridiculous on multiple levels.
Because one, this might be your best work yet. Being able to visualise statistically what we are seeing in performance across so many metrics is absolutely brilliant.
And two, seeing those statistics / trajectory and hearing the club likely still aren't acting defies belief & is incredibly frustrating for the clubs true soul (us).
We need a hacker to get this blog frozen on every monitor at the club.
Some really interesting & great responses from very intelligent posters here also.
Thanks for putting the time into collating all this HOE, unbelievable effort & a great read.
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