2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.
Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.
Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.
The Good
Ample Opportunities
Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average), followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).
Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.
High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).
Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).
Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).
Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).
Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).
Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.
The Bad
We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.
- R10: Broncos at Commbank
- R11: Storm at Suncorp
- R12: Rabbits at Accor
- R13: Sharks at Commbank
- R14: Dogs at Accor
- R15: Roosters at Commbank
If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.
The Ugly
Ruts, Regression and Depression
The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.
I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.
Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).
That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).
Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game.
We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.
During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.
It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.
Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year
Getty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council
We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points.
Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D).
Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.
We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).
Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013
Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th).
That’s the worst under the Arthur era.
It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively).
Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.
We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).
Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th).
We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.
We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities.
There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.
A tale of Mercurial extremes
Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.
Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era
In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).
Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era
Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by.
In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017).
In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.
Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss.
In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week.
In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.
However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.
A scene from the exorcist.
49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff
In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.
“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”
The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.
After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.
Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths.
Seven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.
No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.
The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again
According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.
That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon.
Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.
Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.
It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.
King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.
Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.
Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).
Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.
Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).
Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ), Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).
Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.
Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.
Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).
Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).
Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).
All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.
Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.
Father Time is coming: Tick Tock
The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)
Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.
In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.
It’s a beautiful idea.
The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.
From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).
Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).
For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?
Some more good news, with some sweet and sour
Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.
Sue Coleman (above), a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).
The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.
In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.
Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.
O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.
“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.
That part of the report has aged well.
What will it take?
The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.
Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.
At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).
Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.
But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.
How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?
Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.
Replies
Marcelo Montoya.
With regards to Sivos kick returns what no one has mentioned is wear and tear.Sivo is 30 yrs old and these soft tissue injuries are seemingly catching up with him.I also don't think this guy has played a full season in the last 3 due to suspension and injury.A wingers job is every bit as hard as a front rowers these days less the defensive efforts.
Aging roster we say well this is one of the penalties of it wear and tear.
Fair enough regards those 2 - they are probably the most aggressive kick returners in the comp. I would say it's not getting the warriors the win this year though.
Sivo is the worst this year - but like I said he's played 3 games - 2 of them on one leg. Over the career his stats are much higher than what simmonson and Harper are dishing out. At the very least the problem isn't just him
Look I think this shows the bones of a good team are there. Don't understimate what Moses brings to our game, and to have him out for so long would have been a massive shock to the players. You can see that once we start to be pushed back to our goal line, we struggle and panic, knowing that Moses isn't there to get field position back with his long kicks. Some tweaking with our attack should be able to compensate for this, but for whatever reason our game plan hasn't adjusted to this. How can we try to play the same way if we know we are lacking in the very thing that gives us good attacking position?
I'll leave the blame game to others, but looking for what can be improved immediately I think we certainly need to change up our game plan. The fact that we haven't done this suggest we didn't recognise the need for an alternative if/when our chief playmaker is out of the game. If true, that's a really bad lack of foresight from the coaches and something that is completely unprofessional.
Another example of our coaches doggedness and unwillingness to adapt or try different things - or at the very least have a decent " back up plan " ( unless it involves his chn then he seems to have someone in the wings )
Sivo needs to watch videos of val holmes has that running back position through the line. Also too. Parramatta could have bought 2 cheap options say iro and alamotti both can play centre and wing. There are plenty of these type of players waiting for an opportunity.
We have the skeletal framework of a good team. The problem is we lack the next level of player contribution. Our Wingers are atrocious, our centres not much better. We get ourselves into positions to score points and or win games only to not have the skill of our auxillery players " those outside the top tiers of our salary cap". Our auxillery players just are not up to NRL winning standard. Russell, Dunster, Sivo, Simmonsson, Harper , Offa, Lussick even Penisini are just not good enough. They dont offer enough to our team consistently. The quicker we can move them on and replace them with better skilled players the better our team will be. Lomax will alleviate some of the problem. Its a shame after watching young Sanders go round that we couldnt find a spot for him in our top 30 going forward. He has real footy vision and heads up footy nouse. I really like this kid.
Great work HOE, as usual.
Penisini is a gun young centre. Sivo is one of the best strike wingers in the comp. We are bringing in a good metre making back is lomax next year. He will likely play fullback with Gutherson moving to centre. We need to purchase one more winger who makes big metres from the backfield
I don't get the Sivo hate.
He has never been a metre eater or a speed machine.
He has always been there as a finisher and he is one of the best finishers in the business with an enviable strike rate.
As for his defence, he is no worse than Simonsson, Harper and Russell. Even Penisini is rocks and diamonds.
I know it's a very unpopular opinion but I would be keeping Sivo and look for a Strike winger on the other side.
Exactly. He was never those things yet people were fine with him when we had Fergo on the other wing because as a combo it worked. I'm not saying there isn't a couple of bad things that have crept into game over the last 12 or 18 months particularly defensively but that can be addressed.
What we need on the other wing though is a metres man, preferably one with a bit of pace. Similar to what Fergo brought when he first came over and was maybe the in form player in the comp
I have said it for a while, you do not get 91 NRL tries if you are average. BA is right what he said after the Manly game, he scored tries nobody else in the team can score. Russell's botched try against the Dolphins? Yeah, Sivo scores that. Is he a great Winger? No he is declining but he is not the worst thing that many have claimed him to be. He is now the punching bag for many to blame when we lose. Manly? Ok fair enough but before that like the Wests loss where he was fine, people said "Drop Sivo", just shows me they didn't actually watch the game and just want to fit in with the conversation to act like they know what is going on.
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