2024 is fast free-falling into an annus horribilis maximus, going from bad to worse now that we will be without Gutherson who joins Moses on the sidelines. That's probably a fair scoop of $2m worth of salary cap.
Hence, it’s best we kick off with some of the good stuff. Miraculously, after the round nine we sit 12th: two points outside the eight but also only four points off last-place on a knife's edge.
Below are stats current as of the end of round nine and from Foxsport Stat Lab, which will be the source of all stats here, unless noted otherwise.
The Good
Ample Opportunities
Top Offloaders. The Eels are the king pins (12.3 offloads per game average), followed by the Tigers ( 11.9), Roosters (11.1), Panthers (10.8), Storm (9.9).
Low tackles count. The Eels currently make the second-least amount of tackles of any club in the competition (292.4 per game). Manly make the least amount (283.6), along with the Storm (298.3), Broncos (298.9) as the only teams to average under 300 tackles per game.
High Possesion. The Eels are third-best in the possession stakes (51.5%) according to current nrl.com stats. The others in the top-six for possession are: Raiders (1st, 54.2), Cowboys (2nd, 52%), Manly (4th, 51.3%), Warriors (5th, 51.2%), Panthers (6th, 50.8%).
Plenty of Red Zone Opportunities. The Eels have the fourth most opportunities in the opposition 20m zone (32.5 per game). The other top teams in this metric are the Panthers (1st, 34.1), Manly (2nd, 33.1), Dogs (3rd, 33).
Penalties awarded. The Eels are second-best for penalties awarded (6.5 per game) second only to Manly (6.6 per game). The Storm are third best (5.9 per game). The Eels though are fourth-worst for conceding penalties (6 per game). The Panthers are the worst in conceding penalties (6.9).
Low Errors. Despite the narrative that the Eels as an error-riddled team with dumbness that contributes to its losses the Eels commit the third-least amount of errors (9.4 errors per game) in the competition. Manly are the worst (12.2 errors a game).
Perhaps, there is a more subjective argument the Eels make critical errors at the wrong time and in the wrong place. It’s a pity facts don’t care about our feelings.Manly concede the most errors (12.2) followed by the Broncos (11.9), Dragons (11.9), Cowboys (11.3), Panthers 11.3, Rabbits (10.9).
Overall, if we were good enough, it shows we should not as many excuses as we have had. Penrith, Broncos, the Storm and even the Raiders can win without their best players and halfback.
The Bad
We only have two more bye rounds left (R16 & R20). Thanks to this week’s round nine bye we went up the ladder from 14th to 12th stress-free. Hooray. The upcoming draw before the next bye looks ominous though. Gulp.
- R10: Broncos at Commbank
- R11: Storm at Suncorp
- R12: Rabbits at Accor
- R13: Sharks at Commbank
- R14: Dogs at Accor
- R15: Roosters at Commbank
If the NRL were fair dinkum about the game and boosting their TV-Pay numbers, they would hand the Eels (one of the most watched, followed and perennially tortured group of fans) at least half a dozen byes with options for more.
The Ugly
Ruts, Regression and Depression
The Eels’ defence is fast approaching the dark days of the 2012-13 Stuart-Kearney rock-bottom multi-spoon years, in the dysfunctional pre-reform era.
I'm not sure if that's sad or ironic considering the reforms were all about improving the club. Or both.
Over the last year, since mid-2023 (R18), we have been conceding almost 30 points a game on average (29.9ppg).
That is actually the second-worst for points conceded rates in our NRL history. Only 2013 is worse (30.9ppg).
Since then, the Eels have won 6 from 16 games (37.5%), with an overall average score of 19 - 29.9 per game.
We average an +8.3 point winning margin and a -22.4 point losing margin.
During that period, our wins have been generally grinding affairs, whilst many losses have been blowouts.
It's akin to a boxer, plodding along "in-the-grind" working hard for any of his split-decision wins, but he loses more often and gets knocked out and beaten up for all his efforts.
Collapsing Outside Commbank: 12.5%; one win in one year
Getty Commbank Stadium: The Eels are partners with Parramatta Council
We have one win outside Commbank in the last year, since late June 2023 (R17) and concede almost 36 points.
Outside Commbank, we have won 1 of the last 8 (12.5%) with an average score of 16.75 - 35.63 (-18.88 av. P/D).
Our only win outside Parramatta against Penrith (Bluebet, R26, 2023) was are only win outside Parramatta since R17, 2023.
We fare better at Commbank, where we have won 5 of the last 8 (62.5%) with an average score of 21.25 - 24.13 (-2.88 av. P/D).
Defence points conceded per game: Worst since 2012-2013
Our 2024 defence currently leaks 26.5 points per game (14th).
That’s the worst under the Arthur era.
It's the worst since the double-wooden spoon years of 2012-2013 (where we conceded 28.1ppg and 30.9 ppg, respectively).
Additionally, our linespeed (pre contact metres) is the second-worst in the competition.
We also concede the most line breaks (6.9 per game).
Unsurpringly, our attack is also bottom-half at 19.6 points per game (12th).
We are also ranked bottom three for line breaks made (15th, 3.7 per game). Only the Titans and Tigers are worse.
We can’t really excuse all of that on a lack of possession, too much tackles (fatigue), too many errors, a lack of discipline, too many penalties or a lack of opportunities.
There is a compelling argument to suggest a pseudo bi-polar team has always lurked there in our cultural DNA.
A tale of Mercurial extremes
Sybil is the extraordinary, spell-binding true story of a women with 16 separate personalities.
Chart showing winning and losing margins in Arthur era
In the Arthur era, we have had 49 blow-outs losses (18 point-margins or more) and 43 large wins (18 point margins or more).
Below is the conversion of the above bar chart into an line graph. EEG-like.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Chart comparing winning-sequences of the Arthur era to the Brian Smith era
Week-to-week wins have been hard to come by.
In the Arthur era, our best run was 6-straight wins seven years ago (2017).
In Brian Smith’s era, his teams were able to achieve winning runs up to 12-straight.
Additionally, following up on a win is a coin toss.
In the Arthur era, only 50% of wins end up with a win the following week.
In comparison, in Brian Smith’s decade, 60% of wins were followed up with a win the following week.
However, it's not just often a week-to-week issue. It's often a half-to-half issue.
A scene from the exorcist.
49th minute: Falling Off a Cliff
In Phil Rothfied’s article on Brad Arthur earlier this week he pointed out an interesting stat.
“Fox Sports Lab stats reveal Parramatta would be running 2nd in the competition behind the Broncos on a first-half premiership ladder this year. But they drop to 14th for second-half performances.”
The RLET (above chart) show that in 2024 the Eels experience a dramatic drop-off from around the 49th minute.
After that, we quickly collapse to 2018-like levels. Dear Sybil, hello darkness.
Russell Crowe in The Pope's Exorcist. He’s also a huge fan of legendary coach Wayne Bennett and wants him at Souths.
Seven-time premiership winner Wayne Bennett and his long-time trusted lieutenant Dr Phil Jauncey (to his right), Australia’s premier sports pyschologist who has been a constant by Bennett’s side (Broncos, Saints, Souths, Knights, Dolphins). He has also worked with legendary AFL four-time AFL premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Cricket Australia.
No, thank you. We've got this. So, back on our ranch.
The Power Game turns to Powder Puff Again
According to nrl.com we are now ranked bottom three for run metres per game (15th, 1,573.9m). The Titans and Dragons are the two worst.
That is the lowest ranking since 2013 when Stuart resigned and we won our second-straight wooden spoon.
Looking at the individual yardage position by position (metres/game via FoxStat), it confirms what the eye test clearly shows.
Our back give, especially our wingers, give just don't contribute enough, and we rely on a handful of individuals to carry the load.
It also shows other teams, practically every team, is ahead of us when it comes to wingers making yardage.
King Gutho, the walking wounded, is the Eels' leading yardage man (metres/game) but in the bottom 42% of fullbacks for average metres per game.
Here's a closer look at the current stats, accurate at the time of writing this.
Gutherson (CG) is our leading yardage man by quantity but in the bottom 42% percentile of fullbacks (124m, 17/29).
Brown (DB) is our best yardage player for his position (either half or five-eighth) in the top 9.6% percentile for five-eighth (82m, 3/31). Essentially, he is just two metres behind Munster, and a top 2 halfback for yardage.
Hopgood (JH) is our second-best for his position. He is in the top 24% for locks (97m, 8/33).
Our two premier front rowers are in the top-third for front rowers. Paulo (JP) is top 26% for props (100m, 17 / 66 ), Campbell-Gillard (RCG) is top 32% (95m, 21/ 66) despite getting more minutes than Paolo (44 mins v 53 mins on average).
Our other front-rowers are in the bottom 33%. Ofahengaue is in the bottom 33% (77m 44 / 66 bottom 33%) but only gets around 33 minutes on average, Greig (51m) MOretti (51m) are bottom 14% . This isn't surprising considering the likes of Moretti only get around 20-21 minutes on average.
Minutes might need some reshuffling considering over the next few years our top bookends are heading towards their mind 30s.
Our second-rowers vary widely from the top 24% to bottom 5%. Lane is top 25% (90m 16/64), Matterson top 45% (79m 29 / 64), Cartwright is bottom 38% (67m, 40/64) K. Tuilagi is bottom 5% (40m, 61/ 64).
Penisini is our best centre for yardage but is still around bottom 37% for centres (106m, 36/57).
Our other centres are in the bottom 18%: Simonsson (91m, 47/ 57, bottom 18%), Harper (90m, 48/57, bottom 16%), and Talagi (73m, 52/ 57 , bottom 9%).
All our four wingers are in the bottom 3-14%. All four sit in the bottom nine wingers in the competition. Simonsson (91m, 51/59), S Russell 90m (53/59), Harper (90m, 52/ 59), and Sivo (76m, 58/59) who hits almost rock bottom.
Lomax sits in the top 7-10% for wingers and centres yardage (162m). He is a top 4 centre (4 / 57) and top 6 winger ( 6 / 59). He would become our top yardage man if he were playing for us right now.
Father Time is coming: Tick Tock
The Space Cowboys all passed their medicals and eye tests despite the eye chart being a blurry-haze ( “I may blind, Frank, but my memory is good”)
Paolo, Sivo and Gillard will be 31 in a few months this year. Matterson, Gutherson, Cartwright, Lane, Moses will be 30 in a few months, this year.
In “theory”, despite being closer to the end of their careers than the middle, their wealth of experience and leadership, despite being with Moses, should count for something to lift our on-field performances and lift the team.
It’s a beautiful idea.
The Rugby League Eye Test have written an excellent article a few years ago, What age do rugby league players peak statistically? , that goes through each position by age.
From around the late 20s early 30s, front rowers (like many positions) sees a drop off in some of their explosive, power-dynamic metrics (less metres/run, less tackle busts, less line-breaks and the like).
Generally, this also means the minutes of the likes of RCG and Paolo need to be managed.
Josh Kerr makes a break looking Usain-bolt-like against our middles in the Eels most recent blowout loss 44-16 (R7, Tio Darwin, technically a home game).
For those who aren’t convinced that ageing affects player performances in the explosive-fast-twitch power-metrics, have a look at a younger Junior. Do you see any differences between the 2024 version?
Some more good news, with some sweet and sour
Parramatta’s 2023 Annual Report states we have over 95K group members including over 5,000 new members last year and have a financially strong position.
Sue Coleman (above), a locally-based, life-long Eels’ supporter, has been a PLC Director from 2019 and is a veteran Parramatta Council executive with a passion for improving the local Parramatta's community. She is soon to be PNRL Director (once again).
The report also outlines we also received over $2.3m in community donations in 2023.Thank you Sue Coleman. Sue is also a 17-year veteran executive at Parramatta Council with whom the Eels’ club now have a multi-year partnership with.
In that report, on the football side, Jim Sarantinos, CEO of PNRL Footy board (above), notes the footy side’s continual financial improvement since the 2016-17 reforms with a net profit of over $17.6m for 2023 including government grants.
Meanwhile, Football General Manager, Mark O’Neill (above) who came to the Eels to help them recover from the 2018 annus horribilis, states how excited he is about the talent coming through the Elite Pathways. He also points out how critical the off-season and early 2024 would be.
O’Niell also notes how hard-working Brad Arthur (above), the coaching team and players are.
“The entire football department is determined to return to finals football and challenge for a premiership,” O'Neil points out.
That part of the report has aged well.
What will it take?
The immediate sharply-regressing footballing future looks grim and uncertain.
Additionally, the real-life on-field results seem to indicate there exists a continued disconnect in the Elite Pathways between and the higher grades and junior sides. That is Mark O'Niell's baby. And for whatever reasons, Brad Arthur's voice and ideas seem to be faltering.
At the end of the round nine bye, the NRL team is 12th (from 17), the NSW Cup side is 12th (from 13) and Jersey Flegg side is 13th (from 14). In complete contrast, the junior levels are in the upper realms: the SG Ball side are 5th (from 16) and the Harold Mathews side are 3rd (from 17).
Overall, all the evidence points to “Houston, we have a problem” with our football top-to-toe. It suggests major changes are needed.
But perhaps we face more terminal problems than the Apollo 13 experienced in their failed mission to the moon. The difference being not only do we have alarming explosions on board and are likely to miss our finals' target, once again, but we are likely to experience some hard landings in the not too distant future. With the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission, NASA, Houston, acted decisively, urgently and tirelessly around the clock for a soft-landing "lifeboat". With us, Houston appears to be more passively crossing its footballing fingers and toes. Watching. Waiting. Hoping.
How long will the board wait before we see major changes? Missing the finals? Another wooden spoon? Hoping a Moses-led renaissance can get the ship back on course later this year or the next?
Yes, that could happen and we're likely to see some upswing and bounceback at some point, especially if or when we get to full-strength. It's in our off-on, up-down Sybil-DNA. But, it will be temporary. We'll be back to where we are now on a slippery slope and perhaps in even worse shape than now.
Replies
I think the issue with Sivo is that he is not performing to a level expected of him, or that we all know he is capable of. Also the stupid penalties are just not what a professional player should be giving away. Like most of the team, he is not light years away from where he needs to be, but he does need to go away and focus on some of these issues. Hope all players have taken the opportunity with the bye to work some deficiencies. They should all be very aware of the top 1-2 priorities they need to work on.
💯 we need a grunt winger. I think if Lomax goes to Fb gets our sets started better. However that is next year. We still have plenty of time to make a run this year.
Look Penisini might get there but as gun centre. mmmmmmm no way. He would be well and truely be behind Katoni Staggs, Valentine Holmes, Bradman Best, Jessie Ramien, Isak Tago, Joesph Manu, Mathew Tomoko, Campbell Graham, Herbie Farnworth, Stephen Crichten, Zac Lomax. Now they are some guns, Pensini would be behind all of them and much more in my opinion.
This is exceptional work HOE. Probably your best. Congratulations and thank you for putting this together.
It paints a grim picture and it's a picture that I can guarantee our Board and CEO have ZERO knowledge of. (I'll do what I can to ensure at least some read it).
The entire point of a Board is to provide independent oversight of operations and that definitely includes risk mitigation. There is no point being on a Football Club Board if you do not have a mind for this information or if you see it as irrelevent.
HOE your analysis should be a flashing red, warning light to all involved within the club. The Eels are officially a club in decline. Changes MUST be made and swiftly, lest we enter the realms of a 5+ year rebuild.
Agree.
There would be more analysis in this blog of HOE's than has occurred by the Board we have the whole time they've been there.
The stats paint a picture of something highly alarming and as you say, something that is absolutely not BAU or to be responded to with "meh, it'll be right, she'll come good"... just those stats alone should be enough to call a war room pow wow not to decide if you are making changes, but to decide what changes you are making with almost immediate effect... the picture painted is that bleak.
Thanks for your kind words Mutts and Will.
What's even more concerning is why the PNRL board (or the PLC as owners) despite all the explosions, fire alarms, and sirens on board our footy ship don't appear to be in "Houston-we-have-a-problem-act-now" mode.
It's almost living in hope that somehow our ship will get back on course. Just because it should, like the other facets of the club. Living back in 2019-2022. The good old days, when we could counter some of our issues beneath the surface on the back of some prudent recruitment from 2019-2021 and rise of the likes of Brown and Penisini.
The other concern is when we get a quasi-renaissance once Moses returns, which is likely considering all the evidence of the last 11 years and our "off-on" switches that could just reinforce hope. We'll probably see a subtle: "See, I told You So!"
Then, just give it time before we another dip and I believe it's only going to get worse over the next 2-3 years without major changes both in our cattle and footy brains (GM and Head Coach).
Essentially, we have some good players who can form the core of a rebuild (e.g. Hopgood, Moses, Dylan, Penisini, Lomax) while we manage some of our senior statesmen who will decline progressively, inevitably. I hope they're in the advanced stages of planning for all this.
IMO if the boards wanted to eat their cake and have it too, in their post-reform "ways", they need to address the footballing side urgently. Get the very best footy nous and clout, and move heaven and earth for it. And then, support the hell out of them.
I dunno gents, maybe we're wrong, and behind the scenes, they're all just as concerned as us and in the advanced planning stages of addressing the footy side of the equation. They just don't seem to be.
It's difficult... you're right though and are we all wrong? Is the Board planning and making moves behind the scenes? Are they more advanced than we would even like them to be? Do they have it all mapped out? Maybe so... but for whatever reason, we all probably land in the same spot and think that it's highly unlikely. I'd really love it if we were in fact all wrong.
I agree we do have a core... a pretty solid core HOE... but the core is rendered useless if around it we try to operate a collective team with poor gameplans, average recruitment, [sometimes] poor cap management i.e. too much or too long, outdated style of play thinking, average pathways / dev, slow reactions to market availbilities, slow adaption to rule changes and too often tolerating sub-par player performances... if all of that keeps happening then we waste the core we have... and in turn waste any title window we may or may not be in.
If we're right and the Board is just steady as she goes, it'll be right... then we're really forever sealed with a fate of average / nearly / maybe next year... indefinitely. Really hope not!
Will or Mutts, did any of you gents hear Micheal Chammas' theory on on why our club doesn't really want Bennett?
"If" true, it's concerning, because it means the club has got things arse end up on the footy side.
This is from the The Saturday Scrum, Triple MMM Footy, which I rarely listen to, but here it is from around the 30' min mark.
Ryan Girdler: "If you've got Wayne Bennett sitting on the shelf who is about to get taken off, and you're on the fence with your coach, you don't want to wait until round 18, then Wayne's gone."
"There's no one left then think 'Geez, that would have been a good idea at the time'."
"You need to be proactive if that's the way they might go in the end."
Michael Chammas: "I think Parramatta have looked at what Wayne has done in the past at different clubs and thought we don't want to set this club back."
"You've got to remember this administration was brought in after a period where the Eels have had so much upheaval and they really couldn't get themselves right."
"They're a pretty good club right now. They're run really well. They've had a lot of success without a premiership."
"If they go and sign Wayne, their theory is then they neglect everything they have worked so hard to get right."
"Because, as I said before, Wayne's focus is so narrow on that premiership and winning a competition with the first grade team that everything else (e.g. pathways) will fall by the way side."
"I think Parramatta will prefer a coach that will actually come in and have a whole of club focus."
Girdler: "Yeah, sure. But are they doing really well with their pathways at the moment?"
Chammas: "No, they're not."
Girdler: "Exactly. What part of their club (is doing well)? Their commercial partnerships might be going well. The Leagues Club might be running well."
"But you ask the hundreds of thousands of Parramatta fans out there that haven't won a title since 1986 what do they want to they want to do?"
Chammas: "They want Wayne. They want to win. They want to win a title."
Chammas' theory on our club is concerning. Even Girdler makes more sense.
An NRL head coach's primary job is "winning" (like Bennett does) with some mentoring and development in relation to NRL squad. There's enough there to cover most hours of your life unless you're Benji Marshall. If the NRL head coach isn't focused on the NRL squad "winning", who is?
The HC shouldn't be responsibile for big-wheel structures and "pathways" which is the GM O'Neill's baby (though Arthur may have contributed ideas) or focusing excessively on club stuff. I'm in the Gus camp on that as well as plenty of elite coaches.
Ideally, if the board was more footy-focused they'd be on top of all the big-footy structures because HCs and GMs can come and go, then what?
Now, whether Chammas' theory is correct or patially correct, I don't know, but what's the reason the board does not appear to be chasing Bennett?
Is it all blind hope in Arthur? Or is it something more? Something ideological?
And Bennett's going public with his intentions about Souths, saying he is "out of a job" and who he's talking to this week about Souths' three year deal. It's odd for him.
Either our club have the heads in the sand with blind hope, and/or they've deliberately passed on Bennett.
If so, then we have even bigger issues than we imagine.
Because it means as long as the club "believe" the overall "whole club" is going in the right direction, everything is hunkey dorey and the footy side will eventually follow suit with enough patience, support and prudent recruitment as evidenced by the 2019-22 model with the O'Neill-Arthur-tag-team (even though Gurr helped at the onset of this cycle).
It's probably a banker-like model: After you invest and diversifying for mitigating risks, you need to wait for the returns even if there is volality in the markets due to temporary circumstances. They're expecting returns, later.
If I were on the footy board, I'd be having sleepless nights waking up in cold sweats.
This is what I've been saying for awhile now.
Parras key signing isn't the head coach it's the director of football someone with the road map of how to look at the club as a whole and have the big picture plan.
This is what our board aren't explaining they are giving you bits and pieces not the map of how we bring our pathways up to speed what they are expecting from a new head coach or BA.Ultimately winning a premiership is the goal but without all the rest below it falling in line what hope are we.
Its why I'm concerned for a new head coach are they setup to succeed.Do we just want to hire a Bennett to come in for a year or 3 and be revisiting the same issues in 3 years time as the latter will have very little to do with anything below it.
Yes we want a Bennett to come in, nothing else is going to change so might as well try to win a premiership.
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