This is the sequel to an earlier blog on the quarter-way mark. Here, we are looking at some mid-season markers, indicators and lessons from NRL history over the last twenty four years.
So, we're fifth at the end of round 12 and will be at the end of round 13: the half-way mark.
77% of premiers (17 of 22) are in the top-three by round 13.
Only four premiers in NRL history have been fifth or lower at the end of round 13.
As a side note, when it comes to wooden spoons, over 95% find themselves in the bottom three (cap scandals aside) at round 13. We're looking at you: the Dogs (especially), the Tigers, and the Titans.
The good news is in most seasons at least one team does make a jump from 5th-8th to inside the top-four (77% of the time; in 17 from 22 seasons), occasionally two teams (13.6%; 3 from 22 seasons) and once three teams (2018) made a jump up.
The Consistency Factor
“Consistency” or lack thereof has been on everyone’s lips when it comes to the Eels. So, what does history reveal here?
History reveals no NRL premier has less than a 4-straight winning run and has between two to four good runs at different stages of the year before the finals or one great run like the 2016 Sharks winning 15-straight.
We have one 3-straight winning run (rounds three to five); our best to date. Last week we finally got 2-straight wins; our second best.
Think of it as KPIs. Despite some good wins, we haven't met the bar yet.
Attack and Defence
We score 25.75ppg (3rd) which is barely a pass mark (in bottom 40% of NRL premiers), but our defence concedes 21.1 ppg (8th). That's unacceptable.
Now, looking at the above Consistency table, gives us some hope considering four NRL premiers concede more 20ppg. But, scratch beneath the surface and you'll find they went on to win conceding under 20ppg:
- From round 15 onwards the 2003 Panthers conceded 15.88ppg (scored at 24.47ppg) and won 12 of 14.
- From round 13 onwards the 2004 Dogs 2004 conceded 18.41ppg (scored at 34.71ppg) won 15 of 17 games up to their premiership win, and won 10-straight (between rounds 13-23).
- From round 14 onwards the 2005 Tigers conceded 18.25ppg (scored at 33.31ppg) won 13 of 16 games up to their premiership win, and won 8-straight (between rounds 16-24).
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From round 6 onwards whenever Johns played the 2001 Knights conceded 19.44ppg (scored at 38ppg) and won 15 of 16 games with him, and they also beat us twice. Without Johns they lost 6 from 8 conceding 31.75ppg (scored at 19.88ppg) and the only time we beat them.
It shows you the kind of form you need. And it shows you they picked up the defensive ante as the season wore, most from the mid-mark.
And this is a lesson for us. Consistently defending better; hitting under 20ppg and winning more games consecutively.
We can’t rest of a few good performances against the best (Panthers, Storm) and a good second half against the Raiders to get us home - don’t forget this includes our shocking 31 point loss against the Cowboys without any real excuses or spine players missing.
Second half comebacks
In the past, we have often been branded “fast starters” in the past (less so this year, though 'Gus' Gould often used to call us the fastest starters in the comp). However, our first halves have been letting us down; on average conceding more than scoring. On the bright side, we're often coming home with a wet sail in the second half.
The Top-4 Maxim; digging deeper
The maxim you need to be top four to have a chance is true, but let's dig deeper. Looking at that Consistency table above gives you clues.
Over 90% of premiers are top-three (20/22) with it spread fairly evenly between them.
History suggests if we end fourth we have less than a 10% chance; a puncher’s chance. Only two premiers have won from fourth; last done 18 years ago.
1. The 2005 Tigers (2nd attack, 10th in defence). They were up against the Cowboys (5th Attack, 9th Defence); hardly world-beaters. Compare their form from round 14. The Tigers won 13 of 16 scoring at 33.31ppg conceding 18.25ppg. The Cowboys won 8 of 16, scoring 21.5ppg conceding 23.81ppg. Is it a surprise the Tigers won?
2. The 2002 Roosters (7th in attack, 1st in defence). They were up against the minor premiers in the Warriors (2nd in attack, 4th in defence). Compare their last nine games. The Roosters won 9-straight scoring at 31.33ppg conceding 12.22ppg. The Warriors won 6 of 9 scoring at 20.22ppg conceding 19.56ppg. Is it a surprise the Roosters won?
There’s probably a few lessons in there for us.
For one, if we aren't a top-three team and end up finishing fourth, and we make it to the grand final, we're going to have to be in much better form than our grand final opponent in every way: outscoring them, conceding less, winning more games to end the season.
And start doing all that soon.
Over the last nine years, we have on average worsened our attack and defence (6 from the last 8 seasons) in the second-half of the season, especially over the last two seasons.
Bottom line
Despite some good wins, history suggests we have a long way to go before we're contenders, or even have a decent puncher's chance.
We need to win more consecutive games.
To get our defence to perform more consistently; under 20ppg from here on. No more blowouts too.
To become more battle-hardened for the business end.
To turn the potential we showed against the Panthers, the Storm and the gutsy second half-last week against the Raiders, into more consistency. To genuinely become a top-three team with genuine confidence - proved on the field.
Part of it will depend on being able to change past season habits of worsening in the second half of the season. Or else it will be yet another season of great disappointment.
Replies
So you're saying we have no chance of winning the spoon ?
Mack, I reckon I've been repeating myself for much longer than that.
Well spotted, Chief!
Thanks David, Glad it didn't put you to sleep. LoL.
This is brilliant, HOE, thanks for putting this together.
Sounds like it's time to go on a bit of a run, especially defensively.
NOS. As always you're an utter gentleman. Yeah, history is a funny thing. It does seem to show we're not really there yet, despite the encouragement of a few great wins. But, I suppose history is always there for the taking; to be remade. If we're good enough.
HOE it's hard to argue with what history proves here, very interesting the way you've shown how those outlier teams got through too.
One positive for us against history is we are a bit of an enigma this season, we are capable of winning any game, any week.
I've got a good feeling about the next few months, think we are going to see a real shift in consistency & defence with a full compliment of players back, a few softer games after a tough draw, and more home games.
Know you're not buying it yet HOE, but your round 18 update to this series could show us moving much closer towards those premiership KPI's.
NOS, I really want to buy it.
We've shown we can play with soul this year. It's possible if we go up a few gears, play consistently. At least for 3-4 consecutive games.
It's not cool to be too rosey and optimistic though, is it? Maybe because emotionally we are hit more by negative experiences (limbic). We tend to look for blame games, faults and weaknesses. And misery loves company.
But the Optimist invents the plane, the pessimist the parachutes - and probably figures out who's to blame for it all.
I can see you have a good balance between this, and ultimately you're one of the rarer ones that leans towards optimism mixed in being a gentleman with goodwill. I respect that immensely.
A world without dreamers, is already dead.
Well said HOE. Dream big.
The way I see it - we are an absolute threat THIS season. We have a fantastic roster - next year is a different story and I feel much more pessimistic about next season.
Coming into the finals with Matto, Ice, Reed, Niukore all wanting to go out on a high.
Dylan Brown channeling the spirit of Brett Kenny.
Moses kicking to the corners.
RCG and Paulo Hammering the door down.
Sivo and Blake returning to score tries.
Our backrow depth of Ice, Niukore, Bryce, Laney, Matto, N Brown and more has to be the best backrow depth in the comp or close to it.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Now if the coach could only figure out the defence... That might be helpful.
Raptor Jesus totally agree. Couldn't have said it better.
I think most of us would be on the same page with you.
I'll never forget the advice that the wealthiest person I ever met gave me, and someone I care about deeply (someone who makes Politis or Packer look only moderately successful).
'You have to dream big, but then have the courage and mental resilience to never give up on it. No matter what.'
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