It was a disciplined, dominant win against a soul-less Knights today, putting us in second position, albeit temporarily, until Storm probably relegates us to third tomorrow night when round 7 ends.
This is just to review some stats at the quarter-way mark of the season, at the end of round 6 (shown below for this year), over the span of NRL history from 1998; 24 seasons (excluding data relating to cap breaches 2007,2009, 2016).
This one interested me as it suggests that you need to either be genuinely one of the top-two teams or otherwise show improvement from the beginning of the season, even from the end of round 6 and be up at the right side of the season.
We do the opposite. Falling (2020, 1st > 3rd at the end; 2021, 2nd > 6th) or plateauing early (2019, 5th > 5th).
Bear in mind the teams 64% of NRL premierships that finish top-2 (14/22), and 36% (8/22) are won by teams finishing 3rd or 4th.
From all that, it's fair to say the Eels are probably not the top-2 genuine (Penrith and Storm probably will be), and the Eels' best chance of winning will be to avoid peaking too early and to step up a few gears as the year progresses building up momentum towards the later portions of the year which in the last three years we have not been doing. You don't need to be the best team all year, just for one game, and build up momentum towards the back end.
Here are some more stats. If you ladies and gentlemen think it's interesting at all, I will do some for half-way mark (end of round 12) and three-quarter way mark (end of round 18).
Replies
Great minds think alike or you must have just read my blog I posted a few minutes before.
This is a lot better and better researched. I have followed this stat for a few know as well.
Thanks Browny. I'll have a look at yours; didn't realize we may have doubled up.
It's interesting that every NRL premiership winner had either improved on their round 6 rank by the end of the year, or was in the top-2 both at round 6 and at the business end.
Not surprisingly, we have not done this over the the last 3 years.
Not a double up. I just posted the current top 8 and asked if people think it will be same top 8 teams by seasons end all be it in a different order.
I think the state is that top ' teams don't really change that much from the half way mark to the seasons end.
But looking at the table now I think you could almost lock in the current top 8 and just change the order.
Browny, you're definitely on to something. Over the last six years, post 2015, there's only been 1 or 2 changes at the most every year to the top eight from round six (and one of those was due to cap penalty, cough, cough, 2016).
Is the gap widening, between haves and have nots, albeit slowly, such that we don't really pay attention to the gradual change (such a common phenemona psychologists have a name for it). And if so, why?
This year there seems to be a little bit more unpredictability - not quite as many blowouts as last year - although still with a fair few. If I were a gambling man, I'd predict at least 1 or 2 changes to the current top eight.
FYI, Over the last 24 years of NRL history since 1998 every year has seen at least one change to the top eight from round 6:
1 change 29% (2003-04, 2007, 2011, 2018-19, 2020)
2 changes 38% (1998, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2010*, 2012, 2016*-17, 2021)
3 changes 25% (2000, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015)
4 changes 8% (1999, 2002*)
*cap scandals caused extra changes to the top-8 (1998 was top-10).
PS: We've been really active participants in the top-8 movements from round 6 over the years.
I'm still trying to workout how we've lost those 2 games so far.
Right now in my eyes we should be undefeated.
Coryn Hughes , love how you see the glass half-full.
Other than the Saints and Knights blowouts we've been in really close games (1,2,4,4,6 points) winning 3/5 close ones.
I thoughts some of those games could have gone either way, but it's good we seem to be generally finding ways to win the tight ones.
We still seem to have our off days; I suppose, better now than later. And, anyway, perhaps it's better we have not hit top gear; that we time our run and build our season.
HoE the more tight ones we win puts us in good stead down the track there the ones we want to win opponent regardless.
Games like yesterday are a luxury but I love how we punish mistakes and weakness.We can build on that.
Back to the close results that's what it's going to be like playing the better sides where moments count that's what's killed us in the past and this is what we have to nail down.Being in close contests does this battle hardens us.
Wholeheartedly agree mate. Well said!
Agreed 💯 Coryn
Awesome as always, HOE. Wouldn't have picked that every premiership winner improved their position from Round 6, but I guess that shows the importance of timing your run?!
I genuinely feel we are a great shot of a top 2 finish over the Storm. We're sticking with them despite our injury toll.
Nice work HOE.
-
1
-
2
of 2 Next