The last time the Eels beat the Storm, we had a Moses-Brown-Guthorino-Reed spine and were singing Happy Days with The Fonz. That was 2022. Since then, we’ve lost a record-breaking five-straight against them. And in those games they treated us like their own personal ATM scoring 182 points in four. That’s over 45 points a game. Enough PTSD to make a therapist quit. Think 56-18 round one. 46-6 half-time.
But that was then. This is now.
Ryles and our Kaizen Warrior Kids are built for pain.
Russell came of age last week: Can David back it up? (Image from our club)
The Eels team list is essentially unchanged from last week. Brown is hanging onto top-18 status. The Storm have lost their fourth fullback and humble general, Jarome Hughes, to a shoulder injury, but get Papenhuyzen and Munster back. Smelling blood in the water. A storm awaits us in a few hours.
Team Lists
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm, 7.50pm AEST at CommBank Stadium
Weather: Expected to be fine, rain likely, around 9-10˚C, 13km/h winds, 79% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $3.66 , Storm $1.28
Referees: Gerard “We’ve Seen this Movie” Sutton (on-field), Chris Butler (Senior Review Official), Gerard Sutton/Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski(Touch Judges)
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti
18th man: 18. Jordan Samrani 22. Dylan Brown
Cut: 19. Kelma Tuilagi 20. Bailey Simonsson 21. Toni Mataele
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Tui Kamikamica
Bench: 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Bronson Garlick 17. Joe Chan
18th man: 18. Kane Bradley 22. Lazarus Vaalepu
Cut: 19. Alec MacDonald 20. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 21. Josiah Pahulu
Head Coach: Craig Bellamy
Storm warning: The bogeyman along with Munster-Magic, the Baba Yagan comedian, are back. Papenhuyzen and his hair (above) always seems to find a way to pull down our pants as he did in the round one slaughter earlier this year (Getty).
Little Pap continues with his second game at fullback in the NRL. He showed some good signs last week, and a deep-burning passion. Good luck, young lad. Expect plenty of pressure this week (Getty images).
Stats: A Torture Chamber
The Eels have lost the last 5-straight against the Storm.
The Eels have lost all 5 games against top-four opposition this season.
Harry Grant has scored 8 tries in his last 8 games against the Eels.
The Storm have won 7 of their last 8 games, doing just enough to win rather than spectacularly dominating teams like they did earlier in the season. They haven’t scored over 38 points since round ten. In the first third of the season they were often scoring over 40-60 points.
In contrast, despite being the arm wrestle in almost every game since round 7 (at least up to the 72nd minute with the Raiders, R20 at 22-16 and up to the 62nd minute against the Panthers, R19, 10-18) we have won only 5 of our last 12.
Mathematically, we’re still alive.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 5 tries in 4 games against the Storm. Here, he celebrates his 150th match-winning try last week's nailbiter (Getty).
Zac Lomax has scored 5 tries in his last 4 games. More Momax, please.
Last week in Brisbane, we made good on our January Kaizen Commitment for constant improvement.
Kaizen: Small Steps for Mankind
We still made more errors than the Broncos (9-8), but that was a colossal step-up from our 16 and 20-errors, against the Raiders (R20) and Panthers (R19). Our completions against the Broncos were also a far cry from the 59% we saw in Canberra.
Compare our average per game stats to last week (nrl.com stats)
Completions: 78.2% (14th) | 86% (last week)
Offloads: 10 (9th) | 3
Run metres: 1618m (14th) | 1381m
Handling Errors: 10.1 (4th) | 9
Tackles: 353 (7th) | 327
Possession: 48.8% (11th) | 51%
Kick Metres: 619m (5th) | 824m. That’s not something you see every day. It's not unlike seeing Haley’s Comet fully sober.
Moses' kicking game last week essentially kept us in the game and grind whilst compensating for a lack of go-forward (image).
Fate: A Game of Inches
With the Eels battling to cease the Broncos momentum in the final ten minutes last week, it all came down to two split-second moments in the dying seconds. A Papalii spill on the line. An offside Walsh sock-or-two with a whiff of nail-polish. Cancelling each other out. It could have gone either way, but we deserved the win.
We were much-improved with our kick-chases, support play, ball-handling, and reduced-error count.
One moment in the 19th minute captured it. An aggressive chase led by Sean Russell and Eels’ jerseys of a rushed skyscraper, Moses under-pressure kick near half-way. The bounce landed into Russell’s hands, who cleverly chipped over Walsh to shock everyone, including most Eels’ fans.
Now, compare that to the Raiders (R21) the week before in these highlights where there was practically zilch support in these moments. A Fox's lone-chase of a kick only to be taken over the line (10th-minute). A solo Fox 60m line-break (11th-minute). A lonely Dylan Walker 40m line-break (16th-minute). A Lomo solo-UFC-special in a hustling, bustling 70m-run, wrestling-an-army-by-himself (22nd-minute). A Doorey 50m break, flying solo (31st-minute).
The Final Word
History says we're heading for pain and potentially a smacking, just like last round. When it was wrong.
David beat Goliath last week at Suncorp. Against all odds. The round one horror shows what we're potentially up against in a few weeks. A Goliath more seasoned and intelligent. We need more of the fundamentals from last week to stay in the grind to have a puncher's chance of an almighty upset.
Can we do the impossible again tonight against the premiership favourites?
Tonight is a big test of character to see how much we've really improved.
PS: Spoon alert. Eels are now equal fourth-favourites with St George ($15). Last week, we were second favourites (at $5.50). As the battle for the spoon heats up, currently the Titans ($2.50) are in pole position then the Rabbits ($3.40) and Knights ($3.75).
Footnote: Stats are sourced from the Rugby League project, nrl.com, Foxlab, David Middleton and Statsinsider.
Replies
BEM, thanks mate. It's a big test for us. I have no idea what to expect.
Heart: Eels 25-24
Head: Storm 46-24
Great preview HOE.
Thanks Meelk, Hope you're doing well buddy. Just quietly, Fifi has been spotted bubble bathing with huge-squids in a giant hotpot. Is everything okay there?
Fifi has had the hotpot bubbling away for about 6 months now, just waiting for you and Bert to turn up...
Good writeup HOE. I hope see a lot of evidence and the early beginnings of a Kaizen Way type of energy making a statement in this game.A good challenge for us. If we lose I hope the discussion after the game focus is on the positive s. We are up against a well seasoned side with an apprentice type coach against his previous master coach
I will show this to you HOE How will the Kaizen Way work out with this kids dedication. Some have it some don't
https://youtu.be/Uv-tmq_y5xc?si=SnZRs51DQADvGhja
Eels 32 Storm 20 - Munster breaks both his arms by flinging them up after every tackle.
But for reals...I'll be happy if we don't get royally spanked. The Storm are very polished.
Cool preview, HOE, thx. Grant, Munster and Paps are very unlikely to have repeated brain fades like Walsh last week, so I expect the Storm to run away with it. Probably late, like 50th minute (see Dogs, Panthers and Raiders games). The upset of the Broncos was awesome and is the holy grail again, but I'm still thinking most will be OK if the Eels are in it 'til the end rather than fade out 20+ mins beforehand. A whitewash will see every commentator who praised Ryles' courage in rebuilding go turncoat and doubt the whole show, with talk of "Where's Dylan" returning. They will of course conveniently forget that Dylan never showed up this year anyway.
Going to be a wet night so hopefully they put the offloads and risky passes away. Moses can kick you to victory if they are patient.
I reckon the Eels might actually cause another upset and win by 12 points. As long as the referees are 50/50 with calls.
Surely Bellyache doesn't opt for Pezet and Garlic on the bench.
A backup half and a backup hooker.
Youd be telling our forwards the Storm think their soft if that's the case.
If they lose a forward or two to HIA they'd be in deep shit.
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