A Day Of Milestones. Brian Kelly's 200th. Dylan Brown's 150th. It was supposed to be Moses' 250th. Until the footy gods intervened with the game's worst injury curse since the Ten Plagues of Egypt struck him and Junior Paulo.
All the experts and punters have the Knights holding the Cup with super-glued fingers. Few believe the Eels are a chance: at best competitive for a while.
History tells a very different story. A Seven Year hoodoo. Since 2019, Parramatta have won 10 of their last 11 against Newcastle, including five of their last six in Newcastle.
You never know the future.
Teams
Knights 5th vs Eels 14th, Saturday 30 May, McDonald Jones Stadium, 3pm AEST
Ground: Cloudy 20°C, Wind WNW 17 km/h
TAB: Knights $1.18, Eels $4.80
Referees: Johnny Wicks (on-field), Dave Munro (Touch Judge), Wyatt Raymond (Bunker)
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Fletcher Sharpe 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Sandon Smith 7. Dylan Brown 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Trey Mooney 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Jermaine McEwen 13. Mathew Croker
Bench: 14. Harrison Graham 15. Tyson Frizell 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Cody Hopwood 18. Thomas Cant 19. Fletcher Hunt
Reserves: 21. James Schiller
Cut: 20. Francis Manuleleua 22. Elijah Leaumoana 23. Kyle McCarthy
Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Joash Papali’i 7. Ronald Volkman 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Jack Williams 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Charlie Guymer 16. Toni Mataele 17. Harrison Edwards 18. Apa Twidle 20. Sam Tuivaiti
Reserves: 22. Araz Nanva
Cut: 19. Teancum Brown 21. Lorenzo Talataina
Iongi and Ponga are big ins.
Stat Attack
The Knights have scored 122 points in their last three games.
The Eels have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Knights.
Greg Marzhew has scored 9 tries in his last 3 games.
Ryles: Everyone Needs To Cool Their Jets
Fans have been asking: When will we see Lorenzo Talataina debut? Wasn't he The Future is Now?
Jason Ryles was asked about it at the pre-game presser earlier this week. He didn't miss.
He told us that the Lorenzo is "tracking along really well, where we'd like him to be".
"He's out of SG Ball last year."
"A lot of people get excited about the young kids coming through and want them to play now. And when they play now, and it's too early, they're quick to criticize them.
"Everyone just needs to cool their jets playing young kids too early.
"We've got big plans for Lorenzo, and obviously know where he can potentially get to if he does the work.
"But there is a lot of water to cross under the bridge before he gets that opportunity."
A Daunting Challenge
The DB Cup will be a daunting challenge for the huge underdogs. The rebuilding Eels squad in the early stages of the Ryles era, one season and 11 games in.
The injury hits keep coming. Moses is the Eels' best. Junior has been one of the Eels' best yardage carriers. Top four. That's not something you see in the likes of the Panthers and Knights where the back five relieve pressure and fatigue on the pack.
The Eels will need to execute the 101s far better than their 16 errors in Round 11 against the Storm and play a bit more square and direct.
Along with a bag of restarts it meant the Eels were facing 3 v 22 minutes of death zones. Not even the Panthers could defend that without conceding 34 points like us. Their only loss this year conceding 32 points was when they faced 13 v 19 minutes of death zones.
The Eels have struggled to compete in games where the kicking game isn't over 600m or drops off in the second half (Foxlab reports).
Collectively, the team listed sans Moses averages under 100m. That won't be enough to compensate for the second-worst yardage in the competition (after the Broncos, who have also had injuries).
The Eels' kick chase will need to lift, as will the line speed. The Knights get far more out of their back five, who unlike Parramatta's provide the bulk of the side's yardage.
Although the Eels have the worst defence in the competition, the Knights' left edge leaks the second-most tries in the NRL (the Dragons are worst); worse than ours. If Volkman can return to his tackle-busting ways, perhaps there might be some opportunities.
Final Word
Justin Holbrook deserves a lot of credit for giving the Knights belief and playing to their inherent strengths. Everyone has already started to engrave their names on the Cup.
Ryles' undermanned and under-fire Eels also deserve pludits for fighting. There has been improvement for little reward.
The first six weeks were: Blowout-fight-fight-blowout-fight-blowout.
The last five weeks: Fight-fight-fight-fight-fight.
Not easy to do in V'landyball era of record blowouts and the highest points leaking in the game's history, especially with what the Eels fanbase call one of the worst rosters in the competition.
Now, without their best, mentally fatigued, the risk is a down week and another blowout loss with the Knights at full strength and brimming with confidence under Holly-Ball.
Can they fight again? Be competitive? Pull off one of the upsets of the season?
Almost nobody expects it. But they can't give up on themselves.
Congratulations to all the Milestone Men, Brian Kelly and Dylan Brown. May the best man win. Brian Kelly.
Replies
I've given us a fighting chance !!!
I won't be down the road at McDonald Jones I'm going to vivid so hopefully by juju being 200 kms away helps !!!!!
A safe bet is we will let in at least 20 points.
The Knights defence isn't spectacular so if we get an even share and complete well we may actually outscore them.
Scoreline 28 -22 either way.
Really can't see the Eels winning this match BUT not impossible. Greater match upsets have been done over the years. I just hope they're at least competitive and it doesn't end up a thrashing. I really don't think Ponga should be allowed to play and should be missing at least a couple of matches.
Mallee, it was a rule brought in 2022 so what you think is irrelevant.
I gave us a rough chance but Ponga's availability i.e not rested it makes it hard. If Ponga had not been sent or just got 10 in the bin, he essentially missed the toughest part of the origin game....in the current circumstances I can only imagine he is fresher than most that played Origin on Wednesday night.
If you look at the matches we have won and had no right to at the time, this game is as open as any of them.....I like the experiment of Volkman and Joash in the halves....Volkman's long kicking game is much better than Pezets, so we are defintely better with him at 7 than Pezet.....
I think sharpe carves us up. Knights will want to get revenge on that flogging they got last year. Our defence is not going to improve and our attack is at a snails pace compared to other teams knights 54 eels 10....but i hope i'm bloody wrong lets go PARRA
I encourage everyone to watch JR press conference from yesterday. At the end he speaks about Renzo and he is 100% right imo.
Interestingly he also said they had planned for Papalii to play some 6 in nrl this year
Expect that level of defence from our edges
Where tf is Avery