Gus Gould is right when he says defence starts with your attack.
In V’landyball, that’s truer than ever. Average margins are over 20 points and average scoreline is over 50 points in total. The highest in history.
The old saying is defence wins championships. Maybe that's still true. It's hard to know what the game is evolving into. Touch footy?
But it's who wins the momentum and fatigue battle that wins games. Whoever faces the least amount of death zones.
The Panthers have been the best defensive side of the last 5–6 years. Potentially one of the best defensive systems in NRL history.
Three Sets: Three minutes
Their best defensive performance this season was surviving 13 consecutive plays without conceding a try.
3 completed sets. Around 3 minutes of sustained pressure in a Death Zone.
That’s the benchmark.
Anything approaching that has defences vulnerable.
The Eels have also defended multiple consecutive sets without conceding points. The issue is not whether the can. But how often they are forced to do it.
Eels v Melbourne
Against Melbourne, Parramatta endured 22 minutes of Death Zones to just eight of their own.
8 v 22 minutes. 2 v 6 tries. 8-34 loss.
That's still better than round one: 3 v 36 minutes. 1 v 9 tries. 4-52 loss.
That level of defensive exposure is unsustainable for any system. More often than not, it leads to blowouts.
The Lesson of the Panthers
Not even the Panthers can win facing 20 minutes of intense collective momentum against them in a game. Let alone what the Eels face regularly.
Penrith’s only loss this year was when for the first time they almost faced 20 minutes.
13 v 19 minutes. 3 v 5 tries. 16-32 loss to the Dogs.
By comparison, Penrith’s close 18–16 win over Manly featured a near-even momentum battle.
10 v 9 minutes to the Panthers. 3 v 3 tries. A 18-16 win.
That’s why attack, yardage, completions, errors, poor ball-handling, and late-set restarts matter so much.
Yardage
According to NRL.com, Penrith make the most run metres per game. Parramatta are second-last (Broncos worst).
It’s one reason why if Mitchell Moses doesn’t kick for 600 metres or more (Fox Lab), the Eels are generally not in the contest. And in games the kicking yardage fades in the second half, the game usually follows the same course.
The Warriors operate similarly but are humming. Their systems are built around high completions, low errors, strong kick yardage, and territorial pressure layered on top of physicality.
Overworked Forwards and Back Five
Penrith forwards are responsible for only 36.6% of total yardage. Parramatta's 48.8%.
Junior Paulo and Jack Williams in particular are carrying massive loads simply trying to establish momentum. Far more than the Panthers.
Leota and Lindsay Smith have made 1800m at 7.9m/ run.
Junior Paulo and Jack Williams have made around 2200m at around 8.5m/ run.
You wouldn't think so. But maybe we don't always appreciate hard work when you're losing.
What’s interesting is that Parramatta’s halves and forwards actually average slightly more metres per carry than Penrith’s equivalent.
But that also reveals the structural problem.
Essentially, the Panthers get punch from their back five. No surprises there.
Penrith’s back five generate: 8,576m from 932 carries. 9.2m/ run (Fox Lab Reports)
Parra’s back five generate: 6,591m from 804 carries. 8.2m/ run.
That gap becomes enormous over the course of a match and a season.
We need more punch from the ruck
Somewhere.
Whether that is forward-heavy recruitment of power players, more punch from dummy half or more from the back five like the Panthers. Or ideally, all.
The Eels need more “urgent athletes” as Coryn often calls them: players capable of generating immediate ruck pressure and momentum. Players who create urgency, chaos, and mayhen to create space and momentum.
Taylan Da Silva is a good example we need to use more out of dummy half and targetting the ditch behind the ruck and both A & B defenders better with good support play and lines. We aren't doing much of that.
Against Melbourne in the first half he had 0 runs for 0 metres. Against the Cowboys he ran for almost 80 metres, made two linebreaks, and scored a try in the opening half.
Against the Storm we spread it to Moses mostly and Volkman looking to exploit the Storm's vulnerable edge defence this year. It was of little practical purpose other than the first try when we had a 3-minute death zone.
It's probably no co-incidence in 2001, another high scoring year, the Eels had a lot of dummy half punch. The PJ Marsh-Drew one-two punch. Whether we see more threat with the ball from Ryley Smith when he returns from injury is also a question.
It might also be the game plan to have the ball in Moses' hand as quickly as possible ala 2022.
The issue is if you aren't getting ruck momentum, spreading it wide is less effective on set defences.
It's an issue the Dogs have had before their break out win against the Storm this week.
Sure, some teams might have freaks like Latrell Mitchell or Reece Walsh, but if you don't?
It also erodes confidence when you're up against 13 in the line in the 20m zone, and unable to score.
Worst still, when you're playing catch up footy, and hot potato coast-to-coast, the likelihood of an error increases. Invites momentum swings and death.
That's also where elite systems matter so much.
Elite Systems
The Panthers’ elite systems is the foundation of winning momentum by a thousand cuts; suffocation. Patience. Waiting for mistakes. To strike.
Their punch from the ruck, kick chase, support play, ruck and game management are elite. It's also small things like avoiding quick belly play the balls and gang tackles to jack up players and push them back to slow the ruck and help the defensive line reset.
Man-for-man, Penrith average roughly 300mm more per carry overall than the Eels.
But when that involves nearly 2,000 carries, it becomes overwhelming.
It's not just striking first and beating the opposition to the death zone punch.
We also need more consistent systems: a big thing Ryles is looking to achieve. Or failure awaits.
Stats taken from Fox Lab Reports.
Individual yardage
| R1-12 (11 games) | |||
| Penrith | |||
| Back Five | Runs | Metres | m/ run |
| Dylan Edwards | 210 | 2011 | 9.58 |
| Thomas Jenkins | 197 | 1822 | 9.25 |
| Brian To'o | 203 | 1775 | 8.74 |
| Paul Alamoti | 150 | 1376 | 9.17 |
| Izack Tago | 33 | 333 | 10.09 |
| Casey McLean | 139 | 1259 | 9.06 |
| 53.3% | 932 | 8576 | 9.20 |
| Halves | |||
| Blaize Talagi | 93 | 780 | 8.39 |
| Nathan Cleary | 99 | 765 | 7.73 |
| Jack Cogger | 13 | 77 | 5.92 |
| 10.1% | 205 | 1622 | 7.91 |
| Forwards | |||
| Isaah Yeo | 136 | 1185 | 8.71 |
| Isaiah Papali'i | 159 | 1148 | 7.22 |
| Moses Leota | 127 | 1022 | 8.05 |
| Lindsay Smith | 106 | 823 | 7.76 |
| Luke Garner | 95 | 759 | 7.99 |
| Bradley Phillips | 91 | 673 | 7.40 |
| Scott Sorensen | 86 | 653 | 7.59 |
| Liam Martin | 42 | 325 | 7.74 |
| FB Lussick | 27 | 199 | 7.37 |
| Liam Henry | 12 | 117 | 9.75 |
| Keanu Going | 14 | 102 | 7.29 |
| Mitch Kenny | 11 | 66 | 6.00 |
| 36.6% | 770 | 5887 | 7.65 |
| Overall | 1907 runs | 16085m | 8.43 m/run |
| Eels | |||
| Back Five | Runs | Metres | m / run |
| Josh Addo-Carr | 135 | 1180 | 8.74 |
| Bailey Kelly | 120 | 1023 | 8.53 |
| Sean Russell | 117 | 842 | 7.20 |
| Will Penisini | 98 | 828 | 8.45 |
| Bailey Simonsson | 89 | 703 | 7.90 |
| Joash Papalii | 81 | 648 | 8.00 |
| Isaiah Iongi | 60 | 510 | 8.50 |
| Jordan Samrani | 60 | 482 | 8.03 |
| Araz Nanva | 28 | 205 | 7.32 |
| Apa Twidle | 16 | 170 | 10.63 |
| 46.4% | 804 | 6591 | 8.20 |
| Halves | |||
| Ronald Volkman | 37 | 339 | 9.16 |
| Mitchell Moses | 34 | 275 | 8.09 |
| Pezet | 15 | 70 | 4.67 |
| 4.8% | 86 | 684 | 7.95 |
| Forwards | |||
| Jack Williams | 128 | 1110 | 8.67 |
| Junior Paulo | 132 | 1083 | 8.20 |
| Kitione Kautoga | 100 | 806 | 8.06 |
| Kelma Tuilagi | 96 | 713 | 7.43 |
| Luca Moretti | 60 | 495 | 8.25 |
| Dylan Walker | 70 | 447 | 6.39 |
| Sam Tuivaiti | 53 | 409 | 7.72 |
| Charlie Guymer | 52 | 367 | 7.06 |
| De Belin | 44 | 333 | 7.57 |
| Da Silva | 22 | 315 | 14.32 |
| Pryke | 38 | 259 | 6.82 |
| Matt Doorey | 28 | 214 | 7.64 |
| Toni Mataele | 21 | 191 | 9.10 |
| Ryley Smith | 16 | 106 | 6.63 |
| Hopgood | 12 | 89 | 7.42 |
| 48.8% | 872 runs | 6937m | 7.96 |
| Overall | 1762 runs | 14212m |
8.07 m/run |
Replies
"The Eels have also defended multiple consecutive sets without conceding points. The issue is not whether they can. But how often they are forced to do it."
Pretty much. And that comes from incomplete sets and dropped balls. Our systems on the line are quite alright actually. Even under pressure.
Yehez, yep, you'd probably rather defend on the line with 13-men than further up-field where full-backs and wingers drop back for the kick; almost a 10-man line.
That's also a reason we probably need to be better at scoring tries off kicks behind the line when in the 20m zone. We do some off short kicks, but the Panthers do it regularly. The Warriors too. In form Broncos are also skilled at this. At worst, it provides another point of attack that helps create space and opportunity.
I suppose the bigger question, standing back, is what is the solution moving forward: How can we win more momentum battles?
Many believe we should buy our way out with marquees (changing R&R personel). Sure, we need to recruit and retain as many promising juniors as possible. I think the answer is far, far more complex than buying our way out.
Injuries, not adapting to the new rules, low confidence and belief, rebuilding a team takes time, game plans, and a few critical ref decisions deciding tight games (that may or may not be correct). The Dragons tries to buy their way out of their hole, and it hasn't worked. Maybe next year it might. The Panthers success is built on elite systems and footy IQ, not primarily recruitment. It took them ten years. A great team is greater than the sum of its parts.
Yes, kicking behind the line is something missing for us that our 6 and 1 should provide. Iongi has developed it and we scored off his kicks against Brisbane I think. Really need him back.
Urgent athletes is how we get out of this you recruit develop guys in this manner understanding winning the collision in attack and defense is my goal.Basically what our R n R need to be doing is profiling these types.
Momentum ruck speed is what we are trying to combat and create.
Thats the component that's missing at the eels we just don't have many if any at the moment.
We've got zero mongrel defensively and in yardage we are relying on width to gain us this momentum.Until Parra recruit of develop a few of these types we are in a holding pattern.
Hoey, as you know I am not a stats man but what you outlined in considerable detail is outstanding.
I read your "death zone" notes early in the season and have been quoting them regularly since then to both Parra and other club supporters.
I think your case for R&R is subjectively correct, I wrote today a post elsewhere on my own cynisism about the lynch mob mentality that exists on our site, understandable to a point, some I am surprised about not withstanding.
The usual suspects will always whinge and wine, cerebally you have explained the essence of this modern game, the x factors are still there of course not the least being the inconsistency of referee interpretation and how preset they are about refereeing certain teams.....not much we can do about that, its one thing to be honest and do your best within a club, but when directions come from outside same (an assumption I never thought I would agree with) then it is another multiplyer effect on any given team.
You probably won't get many accolades from within in this blog, but I would love to see you discuss it with the coach and his staff, to see if they see it the same way.......
Of course we have supporter base that would prefer "blood in the water" they would be so much happier knowing someone has died in the making of this season from hell!!
My post on Will Penisini GONE
R&R sits with who again?
Now Russell looked really good last year and we were all disappointed to lose him to Perth, that doesn't stop the current judgements, but it is handy.
Will Penisini is/was a project, he started this year fitter and faster and has ended up a cripple, as Tim Robbin's said in Shawshank.... "I find that considerably inconvenient"
Williams our best player last year, has had a pretty shit season, Kautonga for all his promise has not delivered, Taulaiga fits in the same boat, players like Kelly was a nasty after thought, JAC and Moses have played mostly injured, our fullback most of the season, Doory season, Simmosson season, throw in a half dozen others out for 4 to 6 weeks and yes R&R have really fcuked up. Pezet turned out a wrong call!
I think you will find a lot of cynisism in various people adjudging this disaster of a year....but I feel there is a reasonable amount of "mitigation" I say reasonable, but it is also factual, original opinions held by some protaganists notwithstanding......I don't know much about the physcology of "lynch mobs" but I would be interested to know what is the turning point between rational and irrational.
In the interim I will continue to live in my glass house and when someone actually throws a stone that justifies breakage, I will probably join that lynch mob!
Appreciate the kind words, Pops. You're a good man.
Just for clarity, I can't take any credit for the phrase "Death Zone". I first heard it from Reni Maitua who got it from coaching circles. It just labelled clear patterns of momentum I was observing really well.
We can talk more about this later...
Coryn,
Thinking this through rationally, from a blank sheet, to get the most "urgent athlete" to move the dial on ruck momentum, you can:
The overheating market and expanding V'landy's universe makes it all much harder, probably than ever.
For example, paying $1m-$1.2m for a guy like Keaon, who demands well overs, is not really value at achieving this endgoal. He ain't really an enforcer. He wouldn't help our back five issue. Sure, we could argue he's "better" than what we have playing NRL. But is he 2-3 times better than Williams and Paulo who will be on less from next year? He'd help with their workload and hard yakka, but chew up 10% of the cap. Su’a is better value and more of an enforcer. Barnett is more of an enforcer and standard setter, but with his family ties in Brisbane and the allure of playing for the premiers, I don't think that was ever going to happen regardless of who we had in the front office. He's a good pickup for the Broncos.
Marquees would be nice and give fans hope, but really considering market forces, we probably need want to look at as many atheletes who have potential to kick on quickly in NRL that may be looking for more NRL opportunities and minutes (e.g. Iongi). Hopefully some outside backs with speed (and variety of height and body shapes) that can make 9-10 m/run. A few of those will make a huge difference. Some will kick on, some won't. I don’t watch enough juniors and Reggies or open age to make an informed judgement. NZ, Fiji, rugby sevens, areas you mention, might be other avenues. I suspect the club are already on this. We have rugby juniors and Fijian outside back in our pathways. They're said they're looking at all avenues. But will they kick on?
I'm sure the club are working overtime to make all this happen, and are just as dissappointed at this year as we all are.
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