Form analysis: Storm flattered

Melbourne go into this match as a warm favourites and given they have scored some 148 points in their last four games and only given up 26 that's probably to be expected.However, I firmly believe that Melbourne have been flattered by understrength and underperforming sides who haven't stretched their defence at all, nor given them a true test of semi-final like defence.Let's take their last match against Brisbane. The Broncos simply didn't show up - I don't think they truly believed they could win without Peter Wallace and when an early error led to a simple try, after they failed to number up, the Queenslanders just dropped their bundle. They were as bad as any side I've seen in a big game like that.Now, I know Billy Slater and Greg Inglis are brilliant players but the Broncos simply dropped off tackles and at least half of the Melbourne tries came from simple missed tackles that the Eels simply don't make.Manly weren't any better. The tries that the likes of Billy Slater and Cameron Smith scored were enabled by soft defence and a ragged defensive line. Prior to that the Storm wiped the floor with the Warriors, who are also defensively brittle and the wooden spooners, the Sydney Roosters.Prior to that the Storm were ordinary with just two wins from six matches and both their wins were against sides that didn't make the eight - the Sharks and Cowboys.I equate the Storm's run to the streak that Parramatta ran into prior to the Dragons match. We were racking up big scores against teams that just were never in the contest and our form was flattered. When we came up against a team who finally brought their A game - the Dragons in Round 26 we got pummeled. As I said at the time, that was the lost we had to have. It showed the necessary level we had to take our game up to and we've done that.Meanwhile Storm coach Craig Bellamy has been gloating about how well his side is going. They're going to be a confident side - scoring big points does that for you - but I do see them being short of a big match preparation. If this was a Melbourne Cup, you would say they don't have enough miles in the legs.The Eels on the other hand couldn't have done it any tougher. The Dragons played well in that first semi-final, and the Titans weren't bad either. The Bulldogs brought their A game and we convincingly saw off all those challenges. To extend the racing analogy we're coming off a Caulfield Cup win - we've proven ourself at the highest level and that we're ready for anything that might be thrown at us. Our defence is rock solid and we're scoring points against teams that even the most disciplined, structured defences aren't able to stop.Incidently, if you want to find a match that you can probably best equate to this game you might want to go back and check out Melbourne's Round 23 loss to Newcastle. Newcastle played really well that day and they caused Melbourne all sorts of trouble with their second-phase play.Now, I have no doubt Melbourne have improved but as Reggae said in a blog earlier this week I think they're going to find it a whole lot more difficult broaching our defence and I think that is going to frustrate them.In summary, Melbourne's form may look more impressive on the basis of their big wins, but I maintain its been done against soft opposition. Parramatta is battle hardened and could have had no better preparation for this match than the game against the Bulldogs. As someone who used to be an avid punter, I learned pretty quickly that there is no substitute for going into big contests with hard-fought pressure-laden form on the board. I think's that what we have.

Melbourne are susceptible. I think there's two major factors aside from playing ability and referring that will determine the result. One is the weather (with light showers forecast). If it's greasy, it makes our job a lot more difficult. But then again, it makes this game a dogfight, and as 1Eyed points out, we are accustomed to dog fights and Melbourne haven't had one for a while.

The other is the crowd. Unless Melbourne races to an early lead, the crowd will play a big part in lifting the Parramatta players, both in attack and defence. I'd almost prefer us not to hit the lead until the second half, because with the crowd coming into the game at that stage, and players getting tired, I think it will give us the edge.

"Just one correction Eels 2025, he never left Penrith to be the main man.
He left for the money. There was /has never been issue with his relationship with Cleary.
Now Eels 2025 I am interested where you got that information from, do you intuitively…"

Replies

EELATION October 1, 2009 at 10:48am

MELBOURNE ARE AT MY WORK NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THEY ARE IN THE GYM - I WORK FOR THE WARATAHS HERE AT THE SFS

THEY ARE A BUNCH OF LOSERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Burgey October 1, 2009 at 10:50am

Drop a dumbell on Cameron Smith's foot, will you?
EELATION October 1, 2009 at 10:57am

Smith is on the mat wrestling with some other clowns and finch is doing free weights......
Ingles is HUGE......Good luck to Reddy!!!!
Ingles has the medicine ball and throwing it up against the wall.......Hoffman looks like he is struggling - i think he is a bit special ( if ya with me)
Makybe Steva October 1, 2009 at 12:10pm

Melbourne are susceptible. I think there's two major factors aside from playing ability and referring that will determine the result. One is the weather (with light showers forecast). If it's greasy, it makes our job a lot more difficult. But then again, it makes this game a dogfight, and as 1Eyed points out, we are accustomed to dog fights and Melbourne haven't had one for a while.

The other is the crowd. Unless Melbourne races to an early lead, the crowd will play a big part in lifting the Parramatta players, both in attack and defence. I'd almost prefer us not to hit the lead until the second half, because with the crowd coming into the game at that stage, and players getting tired, I think it will give us the edge.
waldo October 1, 2009 at 1:19pm

I'm all for optimism and there's good reason to be given Parra's record breaking surge over the last three months.
But someone needs to be the devil's advocate here. We all watched Parra go undefeated through the 2001 season and lose a GF.
My mindset is win or lose Parra have played brilliantly to get here and so deserve every fan to cheer them on and off the field.
Melbourne aren't pushovers; you don't achieve four consecutive GF appearances without big time talent and guts.
This is going to be a hard game. My prayer is that Parra will make the opportunity to confirm what great champions they are.
Djl October 1, 2009 at 3:11pm

lets say im quietly confident about sunday this will be melbourne hugest challenge ever and i think the eels will do them with ease PARRAMATTA
Djl October 1, 2009 at 3:46pm

on the nrl website the storm have said they are better then ever saying this is the best performing team out of the 2006,2007,2008 sides they had, which pissed me of because they have only looked good in there last 2 games like u have explained her against under str sides with terrible defensive structures
Ross October 1, 2009 at 3:51pm

I agree with this. We have beaten the teams that came 1st 2nd and 3rd to get in the grand final. Surely 4 th should not be an issue!!
JL October 1, 2009 at 4:21pm

Don't beleive the hype the Storm are dishing up about being being in the best form ever.

Come Sunday night they would have won 1 grand final out of 4 straight attempts! Good effort to get there however no one remembers who finished 2nd.

The Eels are unstoppable at the moment. hayne's had 2 quiet games now, he's due for a massive game this week. Hopefully Nat Cayless plays and gets the premiership ring he deserves along with Hindy and Burty.
Jim October 1, 2009 at 10:09pm

Storm are definitely overrated at the moment
I think they are over-hyping the event and themselves just like a boxing match- a la Roy Jones JR

Storm seem overly confident, Parra is being very modest,relaxed and switched on - all good signs for us.
We have had the toughest run, and the most disciplined build up, we got the nerves out in the games against the dragons, we learnt how to play against the backs against the Titans, we learnt how to match up to the big men against the Bulldogs- we are ready

Go Parra!
Can't wait to see Melbournes faces to have 80 points to blot scored against them 2 years running

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Form analysis: Storm flattered

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