Eels Blogs

And so it begins. "Squeaky Bum Time", as the legendary coach Sir Alex Ferguson called it.

The Eels late-season renaissance has many fans dreaming of the seemingly impossible. But the Panthers are the best team in the competition and armed with the return of their general and entire squadron at fortress Bluebet are hot favourites to prick the Eels' bubble. 

The Eels have hit form at the right time, and in last year's controversial finals game won 8-6 by the Panthers the Eels demonstrated their capabilities. And the Eels are the only side that has beaten the Panthers twice this year and may not have grave fears. Three straight wins over the Panthers last happened over twenty years ago.

Tomorrow night, the finals' series begins with this ferocious sell-out blockbuster. The Battle Of The West.

Teams

Qualifying Final 1: Friday, 9 September 2022, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Referee: Gerard Sutton

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary (c) 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon
Reserves: 18. Charlie Staines 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. J'maine Hopgood 21. Sean O'Sullivan 22. Chris Smith

Changes: Cleary returns (from suspension) as does the rest of the first-grade squad for a full-strength Panthers team, ready to make a statement.

Parramatta Eels

1. Clinton Gutherson (c) 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo (c) 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson
Interchange: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore
Reserves: 18. Nathan Brown 19. Bailey Simonsson 20. Bryce Cartwright 21. Ofahiki Ogden 22. Ky Rodwell

Changes: Unchanged, except for long-lost 2021 Origin forward Nathan Brown who is back in the extended reserves.

Facing a wild Bluebet crowd, the Eels have won 1 from the last 3 at this ground and the last encounter but have not won two straight here in 14 years (since 2007-08).

The renaissance: the dawn of false hope or the real deal?

In the last quarter of the season, since round 20, following our heavy, deflating 36-14 loss to the Broncos at our spiritual home at Commbank, the Eels have had a renaissance of sorts winning 5 of 6 games, and the last 3-straight to rise into the top four - somewhat unexpectedly.

It's all added up to a more impressive-looking Eels outfit that has now come into premiership calculations by pundits such as Cooper Cronk and the bookies - now second favourites - at $6 by Sportsbet after the Panthers at $2.25 (then third Sharks $7, Cowboys $8, Storm $9.50, Roosters $13, and lastly Canberra $20). But, many Eels fans with long memories know how the Eels perform when they're expected to perform as favourites. 

If there was a table of the last quarter of the season, over the last 6 rounds of the regular season it would look like this.

The Eels have gone from scoring at 23.4ppg and conceding 22.6ppg to scoring 31.2ppg and conceding only 13.7ppg.

A remarkable transformation, statistically. A resurgence from the first nineteen rounds rthat puts them in the "Premiership Zone" (points scored versus conceded per game matrix of recent NRL premiers).

This also seems to suggest it shows the majority of other finals teams are also now in the "zone" and have picked up the ante in that same period, dramatically.  

The good folk at Rugby League Eye Test might have some valid reasons for proposing this could one of the most even top eight in the NRL era. And potentially a team outside the top four - such as the Roosters (pending key player injuries such as Manu) - might be able to pull off an impossible title for the first time. 

The Panthers' last quarter slide is probably misleading. Cleary is back and the entire squad is ready for the big dance. Using the analogy of a fighter jet where defence is altitude and attack is the speed the Panthers can fly at the highest altitude and strangle the life out of a team.

The Real deal?

Despite the Eels' resurgence, there are a few concerning signs.

For one, there was still evidence of good-bad Sybil inconsistency and that on-off switch that has plagued the Eels all year.

Last week, the Eels let in three tries in the last four minutes against the Storm. Almost as if Jake Arthur was a curse when he relieved Reed for the last six minutes of play. And it was only four weeks ago the Eels switched off their physical "power game" to be outmuscled and walloped by the Rabbits 0-26 (R22), our biggest Bogeyman in the comp. They also failed to put the Panthers to the sword in the second half (R20) losing the second half 6-4 and taking almost 45 minutes to breach the 12-men despite seeming in destroy mode in the first half. 

Additionally, there is also the argument some of the teams the Eels played weren't at their best. Again, a distant echo of the well-trodden "flat-track bully" moniker.  The Eels walloped a 12-man Cleary-less Panthers (R20). They then beat Manly (R21) whom were in the process of imploding on the back of internal fractures exacerbated by the infamous pride round drama. They then massacred the Dogs (R23) that were lacklustre and also slaughtered the previous week by the second-last Warriors. They then beat the Broncos (R24) who were already sliding down the slippery slope - losing 5 of their last 6 including a walloping by the Tigers the eventual wooden spooners a few weeks prior. And then last week, the Eels beat an intense but error-ridden Hughes-Papy less Storm (R25) side with Munster trying to play Superman. Certainly the loss of Hughes' kicking game last week helped. As the heat maps provided by TCT show the Eels started many of their sets in prime field position.

There will be no excuses this week, though. And the team can only play what's in front of them.

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Cleary's return coupled with a full-strength Panthers squadron will ensure that won't happen this week.

However, no matter how sceptical one is it's hard to deny the Eels have improved significantly both statistically and in the eye test, right?

The Eels power game was on full display last week with the two bookends Junior-RCG leading the way. They ran for about 400m collectively last week against the Storm who also tried to impose themselves physically on the Eels and Moses in particular. And if rumours are correct, we should see an even more fired-up RCG reacquainting himself with former Origin and Panthers' teammates. 

Additionally, the attack has been simplified and is more direct. The offloading has been off the charts. Dylan is in career-best form. The Lane Train has been on fire. Ice is Ice (despite a few lapses last week). Nuikore has regained his power running form, and even Kaufusi is running straighter and harder. Moses is marshalling the troops and managing the game with his kicking game. And Gutho is playing like the Gutho of old. Even Sivo is beginning to look faster.

What is most pleasing is the improvement in the Eels' defence. It has been physical. More desperate. The goal-line resilience and scrambling have improved. Overall, the defence has been a more adaptive, cohesive and organic unit - subsequently now sliding. Less compressed and bunched, flat-footed on the inside, middle and rucks to ensure the edges have a chance to defend.  And then there's even Moses in that bone-crushing tackle on Bromwich. Additionally, Nuikore's improved form of late has also helped add a bit more steel in the middle.

The Eels edge defence and goal-line resilience have been their Achilles heel - their soft underbelly for years - despite now in their fourth-consecutive finals appearance.

There is confidence there. And greater trust.

Defence is something the Eels needed to sort out. Only one team since 2005 has won the premiership with a defence ranked outside the top three. The Eels are 8th and the worst of the top-eight. The Panthers are 1st. The Eels also have conceded more than 20 points - heavy losses (over 20 points) 5 times - a defensive statistic unheard of by any NRL premiership team.

Foxstats show during the season overall, the Eels concede more linebreaks and concede more metres than any other top eight team - unlike the Panthers who are the best in both categories. That could help the Panthers' back three who like to bulldoze their way to field position and the Panthers' creative middle around Yeo. 

It's one thing the Storm struggled to come to terms with last week. They spread it wide, quite impatiently at times, expecting the Eels' vulnerabilities to be exposed again as in years gone by under Arthur's tenure. The Storm used to have a pretty straightforward game plan to beat the Eels. Be physical and intense, in our faces, then attack different corridors until the defence is too compressed to defend the exposed edges (and it's led to a few bloodbaths over the years).

And tomorrow night, the Eels' defence will need to be on song as the Panthers have struck all over the park and present a formidable challenge.

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Luai's unpredictability will also be one to complement Cleary.

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Something has changed with the Eels, but what? 

What? Why?

Their improvement would probably not be linked to the odd appearance of the 2023 incoming attacking coach Trent Barrett in Eels' training sessions; back from his gardening sojourns. Not this late in the day. Or another incoming sports psychologist like what happened last year. Nor an exorcist. And nothing publicly has been announced.

Sure, probably playing a few teams below their best in favourable circumstances has helped the Eels' confidence but there is more to the story.

Brad Arthur credits the improved performances due to the players' growth.

Arthur noted earlier this week there was "not a lot different" he was doing in terms of his approach to games even come semifinal times. Hardly surprising given he tends to have faith in the consistency of his structures and "front-loaded" effort systems devoid of more complex, cerebral experimentation.

Shaun Lane and Dylan Brown in particular touched upon their growth, development and deepening bond with each other on the Eels' potent left edge in this week's media sessions; along with their greater leadership roles and increased responsibility in the team. As well as the trust others had for them.

"It's only taken four years, but we got there", the self-proclaimed “happy go lucky” Brown said with a smirk and a giggle.

Whilst it's clear Lane and Brown in particular have been phenomenal career-best form it's also been the collective development of players such as Ice, Nuikore, Reed, Moses, and Gutherson that have grown together and developed their relationships and combinations with each other. Even Sivo's development in defence was evident last week. He was sliding and using the sideline as an extra defender like all good wingmen do. 

This natural progression is seen even more dramatically in the Panthers. The foundation for this current star-studded premiership Panthers team was set by the end of 2019 with the bulk of the names we see now were coming tenth and missing the finals back then. It takes time to build a winning formula and a team DNA that works.

Brown also puts the Eels' improvement down to an attitude readjustment.

"I think a massive issue for us (has been) an attitude thing" this year and "not showing respect for the opposition".

Even Reed Mahoney who wants to make up for missing last year's finals series, admitted a few days ago the Eels’ attitude has been on in the recent games despite previously denying attitude problems were at the heart of some of Eels’ losses earlier in the year.

Maybe the team have finally woken up from its slumber and found a way to transcend the consistently on-off Good-Bad Sybil switch, moment to moment, half to half, game to game?

Maybe they've realized time is running out? In recent weeks we have heard Junior Paulo's motivational catchphrase "No Regrets" mixed with the commentary that the team wanted to enjoy each other as long as possible given the 2023 departures. It’s also his 200th NRL game. A wonderful milestone for the talented co-captain who speaks louder with his actions in the middle.

Meanwhile, the more outspoken other captain Gutherson has been talking about "embracing" the Eels' poor finals record coupled with inconsistency and "using it as motivation".

Under Brad Arthur's tenure, the Eels' finals record is deplorable with 2 wins from 8 attempts (25%). And the only two wins were against weaker cattle in the Knights and Broncos.

Meanwhile, Ivan Cleary, the Panthers' longest-serving coach (197 games) in his eighth overall season with the club has a better record with 6 wins from 9 (67%) including last year's premiership and a grand final appearance. He returned to the Panthers at the right time as their star rose. His counterpart is poised to overtake Brian Smith (243 games) as the Eels' longest-serving coach next year and is yet to reach a grand final. 

Perhaps for the Eels, it is a mixture of proving something on the back of the team's potential, how close they came against the Panthers last year in the finals cliffhanger, and destiny coming to the crossroads.

Perhaps, that is why "opportunity" seems to be the catchphrase coming out of Arthur now.

Whatever the reasons, perhaps all the pieces are starting to come together. Or at least they seem to be.

Bottom Line

Will the Eels' renaissance and improved confidence prove good enough; have we turned a corner?

There is abundant talent in the team, and Arthur and his coaching staff have done a commendable job as the team are playing to their potential or thereabouts at the business end of this year. And whilst it is fair for us to have some renewed hope but tempered with realism. Time will tell how far this team can go and if all the demons of years gone by have been exorcised. The team has to still raise the bar. That is unless they have already reached the Arthurian pinnacle and there is nothing more to see?

The real litmus test will be over the next few weeks - starting tomorrow night with the competition's premier team.

One of boxing's most common phrases is "Styles make fights". And given the Eels being the only team to beat the Panther twice this year many pundits are wondering if the Eels are the Panthers' kryptonite.

It is a question the team was asked repeatedly by the media this week searching for clues but no one had an answer for it.

"It might be luck", Brad Arthur shrugged.

He was pointing to the flip-of-the-coin nature of the first encounter and how the Panthers had 12 men in the second meet a few weeks ago. The Eels will be relying on an intense "Physicality" and a continuation of the direct "power game" confidence formula that served them well then and in recent weeks.

"We won't change our approach" and "play our style of footy", Arthur explained.

And "I don't want to temper the fireworks" expected against the Panthers Arthur added.

But the Panthers can more than match the Arthurian "physicality" model and the intensity for 80 minutes. Something the Eels sometimes struggle with. Like us, the Panthers also offer high completion rates and high possession rates (both teams are no.1 and 2 for these) with controlled aggression.

Where the Eels may pose issues for the Panthers is in their second-phase offloading which is now off the charts (1st at 13.3 pg) thanks to the likes of Lane, Junior, Ice and Matto; far above the Raiders (2nd at 11.7 pg). The Panthers are mid-range on the offloading charts (10th at 8.8 pg). It's also possible Moses' or Dylans' dangerous running games and both of their attacking kicks might prove the difference as the Eels have scored the most points from kicks (along with the Cowboys) in a close encounter. Still, Cleary could do likewise with his magic boots and the Panthers have plenty of their danger men all over the park.

At their best, the Panthers are next to unbeatable and will be looking to make a statement of intent after a lacklustre end to the season. Overall, they have been the most dominant team for the last three years building their cohesion. Long-term good habits. They should be able to slip back into what they do best. Strangling teams. Boa Constrictor style. Their relentless defence and attacking waves flying at high altitudes.

For the Eels, will poor habits formed over longer timeframes than their recent rise trigger more on-off switches and be their ultimate undoing under extreme duress?

If both teams are on, the Battle Of The West seems more likely to be an intense dogfight with some stylistic differences and habit-forming temperaments than a clash of stark Mercurian opposites.

The Eels will need to produce the best to date to upset the Panthers. And a little magic out of the box, transcending Arthurian structures. With or without Regrets. It's on the players.