The Orr-ful Brown saga could still drag on for months, though you'd think it's best sorted as soon as possible. It’s Orr-fully great theatre and media fodder, but emotionally we want this circus over.
At least with Moses' five-year commitment along with the likes of Penisini and Matterson taking up their options, Dylan Brown is the last of the Eels' Player Option contracts. Well done.
According to FoxSport, the Knights are offering Brown $13m over ten years – poised to be the richest contract in NRL history – while we are offering around $1m a year. If that’s true, then he might pocket around $100K-$150K per annum after tax pending concessions.
Dylbags and Mitch: We're better with our star halves together, right now. But Mitchell Moses is our “electricity” to use Matt Cameron’s analogy of what Cleary means to the Panthers.
Big Picture Stats
Let’s look at some big picture stats during 2019-2024, when Moses and Brown forged their partnership.
There’s no doubt we have been a better team when both play together. We go from a 55.3% to 61.6% win ratio. No surprises there. Derr.
When Moses played without Brown, we’re down a tad to 54.2% (13 wins from 24 games).
But when Brown played without Moses, either at six or seven, it drops to 33.3% (9 wins from 27 games).
Dylan has played 15 games at half (5 at NSW Cup in 2018, and 10 at NRL level during 2023-24). He’s lost 9 of the last 11 games he’s played half.
We'll come back to that point soon.
Interestingly, the outlier is 2020. We actually won more games when Moses played alone (albeit a small sample sizes with 3 wins from 4 games). Essentially, our systems and defence was at their pinnacle at this point – with a younger, faster team, two off-seasons after the 2019 rebuild. Since then, we have progressively declined defensively. Aging and unable to adapt to a faster game.
The Lesson of Systems
If we improve our systems – and habit patterns - we can manage without Dylan. If we don’t, we’re stuffed either way. Systems trump a loss of some extra star power.
It’s a lesson the Cleary-led Panthers have proven. It’s also a lesson the Storm have shown over the last two Bellamy-led decades. Both father figures, but two very different personalities. One collaborative and sensitive, the other more authoritarian.
That’s why the Panthers can let go of the likes of origin class players like Luai, Kikau, Critta Chricton, Matt Burton, Apisai Koroisau – every year – and still win four-straight. The most dominant stretch since unlimited tackles, no-cap era. Saints’ 11-straight (1956-66).
Not a General
Even though game plans and structures are set by coaching staff, an on-field general is still a must have.
Dylan is an elite six as shown in NOS's outstanding blog The Dylan Brown Conundrum albeit for some inconsistency – as he’s himself admitted.
But he's not a General. He' s not a seven. When he’s left to manage a team on his lonesome, he’s not fully up to it. He’s not barking orders or taking the game by the scruff of the neck. At least, not yet.
That's also related to leadership and communication. Essentials. In a sense he's a bit of an enigma: an elite likeable larrikan. A lone singing wolf, instinctively, intuitively, seamlessly slipping into the team fabric. He does the one percenters - leading the kick chase and cover defence, almost on auto-pilot. So he's good habits in that respect.
It's not just fans on this site who think this.
Last year, Trent Barrett told us “we know Dylan is not an out and out seven”. On Sixes and Sevens Mitchell Pearce told Todd Carney point blank that Dylan is “not a half-back” whilst also admitting the over-heating market might put him at the circa $1.2m mark to Carney's horror.
Even his lack of a long-kicking game holds Dylan back.
Good luck, Knights.
Up his Game and Adapt
I believe Gus Gould is correct when he says a player-maker's career is between 25-35 nowadays. It’s no co-incidence that correlates to increased maturity from a neuroscientific perspective. It's the age when the cortex “computer brain” starts aligning with the rest of the “monkey brain” for improved decision-making and reasoning.
So, age matters – it’s more than a number.
Dylan will be 25 in June. 26 next year. It’s a pivotal time. His fast-twitch muscles and power metrics are at their peak – right now.
But they will gradually start declining south – as his contract value increases north.
That will affect his power running game, agility and over time even his renouned defence as it currently stands – and his value - if he doesn’t go to the next level with his playmaking and game management.
If you don’t believe the fast-twitch muscle decline gradually, talk to former players. Or read this excellent NRL study on age and power metrics by the Rugby League Eye Test. Or take Usain Bolt. From 25 on, his times at elite levels slowly declined, year by year progressively. By the time he was 30, he was coming third in elite races, and retirement beckoned. There's a reason Junior doesn't whack as hard in defence or bust the line like he in his early to mid 20s. There's probably also a reason Jason Ryles let go of four of six of the oldest players in the top squad. It’s the lesson of fast-twitch muscles fibres. Reality.
So over the next decade of his career barring injury or other off-field mishaps, Brown will increasingly need to rely more on his game managing, playmaking skills, footy IQ, experience and big-game breaking abilities - rather than speed and power metrics.
The other factor with Brown is injury over a long-term ten year contract, which compounds the risk. Some big money long contracts like DCE's live up to expectations due to his game management and footy nous. Others, like Jason Taumalolo, who rely more on power metrics, not so much.
It’s certainly not beyond reason he could last another decade - even if he hones his playmaking skills at six and stays at the Eels. There are five (5) five-eights that are 30 or older (29%) with the NRL average age for sixes being 25.5 years old – about Brown’s age. Cody Walker (35, can play half), Ben Hunt (34, can play half), Kodi Nikorima (30, can play seven, hooker), Cameron Munster (30, a game breaker), Luke Brooks (30, can play half), Kyle Flanagan (26, can play half), AJ Brimson (26), Dylan Brown (25), Jayden Campbell (25), Braydon Trindall (25, but can play half), Chanel Harris-Tavita (25), Matt Burton (24), Tom Dearden (23, can play half), Sandon Smith (22), Jack Cole (21), Fletcher Sharpe (20), Ethan Strange (20), Lachlan Galvin (19).
On the Fox panel, Braith Anasta said Dylan Brown was worth $1.3m a year as “his best years are ahead of him”.
Could Brown become far better? A general? A more commanding playmaker? Could that be an appeal with the Knights? Does he even want to? We’ve seen the likes of Moses, Luai, Keary transform from sixes to sevens or even a Cronk (off the bench) or Hughes (from fullback).
Or could he end up a 6/13 lock utility in a Jim Dymock mould. His fast twitch might decline, but his body will mature with muscle strength, bone density and neural efficiency peaking over the next five-six years ? Time will tell.
In some ways, arguably, Dylan is at the beginning of a crossroads period over the next few years - not just contractually right now.
If he leaves?
It would hurt us with short-to-medium-term pain – though probably arm us with a circa $1m war-chest.
For fans and the club, it would be a bitter pill. It’s hard for fans not to be disappointed with Brown. The club stood by him and his family, despite off-field indiscretions that hurt us on field and we helped develop him. His thanks is how his ambassador Orr plays this out in the media. The commonplace Machiavellianian "it's just business, it's not personal" tropes that fans care less for, may be a reality for club and players, but for fans the game is built on tribalism and passion. Love. Note the difference with how Moses’ commitment announced today, Hopgood’s or other recent signings played out. It wasn't a media melodrama.
Ultimately, in our new era, we need players fully invested in the club, its culture and its evolving systems.
Most of us want him to stay. I do. But if he wants to just go to the highest bidder in Orr’s auction house, perhaps we just need to wrap him in a red ribbon and wish him well.
A year ago in early 2024, a few months before Arthur’s axing, Dylan Brown told Foxsport, “Teams change with the salary cap."
"Obviously, it is a long deal and I love Parramatta."
"But things change. I’m still only young, so I don’t know what I want to do in the future."
That's stuff between the ear. More essential stuff. Nothing is more important than knowing your purpose. Tick tock.
Is he still unsure of what he wants? Only he knows the real answer. But if so, that’s a orr-ful sign for someone so naturally gifted, at a pivotal age who needs to take his game to the next level. And not something you want to build a culture and elite systems around. We all know how talented he is. Let’s hope for his sake and our club, Dylan actually knows what he wants and is taking guidance from wise heads.
Replies
Sensational HOE. Love the Orr-full reference. One of your best.
I cannot see how Dylan stays if its truely $1.3m a year. The only way I can see him staying is if we tied a counter offer as a percentage of any future salary cap.
Right now he earns $1m average taking up 8.7% of the salary cap. Current cap is $11.4 million with an extra $300k for veteran allowance and $100k for a car allowance.
If the cap gets to $15 million in say 5 years time that 8.7% of the cap would be worth $1.3million to Dylan
If the cap got higher over the 10 years then $15m then Dylan is actually making more $$ at the Eels then the Newcastle contract, and we are still paying him the 8.7% of our total cap which he is on now.
Cracking blog HOE, great point about " fast - twitch muscles and power metrics are at their peak" " they will gradually decline start declining South" while paying Dylan Brown top dollar his value is decreasing, this is a risky call offering him allegedly 13 million over 10 years.
Jason Tuamalolo's contract serves as an example of what not to do and what bad business it is commiting to such long term ridiculous deal.
The facts are Dylan is not an elite player he could be for another club but not the eels.
Brown has limitations.
Ball playing doesn't come natural to him and I'll concede his has improved in that area, he can only predominantly play one side of the field - Brown kicking is okay but solid - not at the standard to put a teams in a position to win games, defensively he ticks all the boxes.
What does Dylan want? He himself is uncertain, guided by his manager how has that played out?? Laughable and that goes for all parties involved - if getting top dollar is one motivation then see ya later..does going to Newcastle appeal to him because he gets some favouritism under Adam O'Brien?
The link between BA and Adam O'Brien shouldn't be underestimated or dismissed - Dylan is not worth top dollar at the eels, Jason is not interested in retaining him for the asking price requested by his
Finally we have a coach that won't put up BS from players when contracts are up for renegotiation!! Club first approach!! how refreshing!!
Anyway the club stood by Dylan Brown and his family, great way to show even a bit of gratitude - unfortunately that sentiment is slowly dieing, we want players that are fully invested in the club, a strong organisational culture with the right people leading the way - we are a great club with a great history, our Rugby league DNA is unique!
We have a great supporters everywhere the club doesn't need Dylan Brown - the decision is entirely in Dylan Brown favour, my gut feeling is he will the reasons are irrelevant!! Once he leaves and a few others will join him, Jason will the team he wants!
The last BA's squad will be gone in a few years - Ryles will get this team humming next season, he will need 12 months to totally eliminate what BA took 11 years to create - rubbish habits, lazy defense and incoherent attack all this takes time.
"The facts are Dylan is not an elite player, he could be for another club, but not the eels"
I don't believe that to be true Mick, with Moses by his side, he is an elite number 6. A good example is Walker at Souths, an elite left side 6, always in the top 3 for try assists. Look what happened to him last season, played half on his non preferred right side with Wighton left side 6, his involvement and try assists dropped dramatically. You hear a lot say that Luau did it for Penrith with when Cleary was out, he didn't, even though he wore the number 7, he still played his natural game on the left, Brad Schneider wore the 6 but played the halfback role. My point is, With Moses he is an elite 6, if he goes to the Knights, or Warriors, who both don't have a recognised 7, Brown will be very much like he was for us last year, capable, but not elite.
All fair points, combinations matter no doubt BUT walker as an example he can game manage to a certain extent, decent kicking game, silky hands and a natural ball player - DB plays on one side of field, kicking is okay not a natural playmaker but definitely improving - some ball players get better with age just like cliffy Lyons, DB has some work to do to be considered elite, I don't feel his at feet at that level and backing the 💯 on its position
Backing the club
Great post, MW.
Nice read mate.
If Dylbags decides to go there'll be a substantial amount of pressure to live up to his price tag .
That doesn't meant just on the field , any club paying that amount of money is going to require him to do a hell of a lot more media and club promotion.
Hed have to get out of his comfort zone on and off the paddock , all eyeballs on Brown.
Even the best credentialed players wilt under the weight of expectation.
I wonder what council outside his manager he's receiving.
Orrful
Tell you what that's a read and a half HoE.
Loved it very balanced and well thought out.
For DB to succeed elsewhere he has to go into the right circumstance the off field and coach are key.If he went to a place with strong leadership I think it would alay any fears of him being successful.But imo Newcastle isn't it.The move absolutely stinks of desperation from the mentioned and the move is basically to keep KP onside and happy.For me it's a poor career choice outside of the coin offered.
Brilliant amigo.
Wrote well , done good.
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4
-
5
of 9 Next