Jason Ryles becomes Parramatta's first rookie coach since Brad Arthur himself took over the reins a decade ago. And with that, he faces down the prospect of lifting an Eels squad that has severely underperformed since the 2022 grand final.
Facing down the highly-rated rookie is an unbalanced salary cap and the weight of expectation, alongside the fact that on average a new NRL coach only improves their side by one win in their first season.
Further roster changes aside - of which there will be many - the greatest test will be in how Ryles goes about re-tooling Parramatta's defensive structures.
While the Eels only boast the 10th best attack, they have managed that without the incumbent NSW halfback. The 2025 return of Mitchell Moses combined with the recruitment of Zac Lomax should see Parramatta's attack comfortable move into the top 8.
Their defence though is equal worst in the competition, having conceded the same 690 points as the Wests Tigers.
What does recent history show for the fortunes of first year coaches?
First we head to the biggest improvers of 2024 in the Bulldogs. Cameron Ciraldo took over in 2023, however no improvement was made in the win column with the Bulldogs winning 7 matches in both 2022 and 2023. In 2024 though they have doubled their wins to sit on 14 with one round to play.
Heading up north to Townsville, and Todd Payten arrived with much fanfare having inspired a Warriors side in COVID limbo during 2020 as caretaker coach.
The Cowboys had managed just 5 wins in 2020, improving to 7 wins in 2021 with Payten as coach. 2022 though was his big leap forward, driving the Cowboys to 17 wins and a 3rd place finish.
Across the ditch with Andrew Webster taking the reins in 2023, the Warriors went from 6 wins in 2022 to 16 in 2023 and a 4th place finish.
Finally we look to Concord where Benji Marshall assumed the mantle a year ahead of schedule and improved from 4 wins in 2023 to 6 wins in 2024 with one round to play.
Judging by recent history then, Ryles will be lucky to return Parramatta to the finals in his debut season. It seems that most first year coaches make minor improvements in their first season, before those changes gel and the side begins climbing the ladder.
That said, Ryles does inherit a side with some clear strengths - especially in its halves. While its forward pack, while severely underperforming was without its most potent attacking weapon in J'maine Hopgood for most of the season, and one of its main wrecking balls in Junior Paulo.
Further squad changes will surely come over the off-season, but Ryles will need to improve his side by more than one win if he is to get the Blue and Gold Army behind him.
Replies
All I can say is the Parramatta Eels Head Coach role is the hottest seat in Rugby League. Ryles needs to approach this with full confidence. It won't be easy for him at all.
I think it is fair to say he has and will be. The moves he is making, bringing in Brown who is not a yes man is a great step plus wanting full control also.
Great blog, Super.
All we have is hope.
The evidence presented on the rookies, makes what experienced head coach Flanagan has done at the Dragons in a year - without much roster changes - quite remarkable. Despite the inconsistency.
They've gone from 16th (second last) in 2023 to the cusp of finals in 2024.
That's 6 more wins to date, perhaps 7: From 5W-19L to 11W-12L.
But like Flanagan has found, for all his efforts to improve their fitness, mental and physical - and an experienced head like Gus will tell you - it unrealistic to expect to change all your systems in one off-season. Alas, for all his contempt of it Flanagan still gets inconsistency.
Ryles' leadership skills will be critical.
He has to unite the group and get them playing for each other like men possessed with more resilience - especially defensively - with more consistent execution of effort areas.
He's going to need to get them mentally and physically fitter, like Flanagan did. Hard drilled, somehow. Like experience does. Bennett. Bellamy. The Panthers. The skill of Ryles' assistants will also help.
Hopefully, that can bring out the best in the groups footy intelligence as well. And we avoid injuries. Good luck is what we need.
But I have no idea what kind of head coach he'll be yet. It's difficult to expect experience without experience. It all remains to be seen.
PS: I've extrapolated our poor back-end performances (average around 24 minutes of implosion over the season) to 80 minutes. It would average out to conceding 50-55 points a game. Historically, that equates to the worst defence in the history of the game. It would equate to leaking over 1200 points a season which would lap the 1999 Wests team (a club extinct) that leaked over 900 points (worst in history) by light years.
I think you are a fan of Pep Guardiola HOE
One of the most successful football coaches in their first year at the elite level is Pep Guardiola. When he took over as the head coach of FC Barcelona in 2008, Guardiola won a treble in his first season, including the La Liga title, the Copa del Rey, and the UEFA Champions League.
Big ask for Ryles but it is possible to to get amongst the top 4. It all depends on a number of skills he may have all coming together.I don,t know much about Ryles and his people skills with motivation and sports science.Hopefully he is the type who really pushes himself to be a master of his craft and is never satisfied with his best efforts
Coryn good comment regarding the infrastructure Guardiola has worked with.I suppose that is the point I was trying to make about Ryles having the Smarts to create that type of environment and mindset in every one he is working with.
I know you are a big fan of halves touching the ball a lot particularly the need for Brown to do so
Watch how much Benji is using the young Galvin as a play maker against us this week and consider his worth as a future asset to any club
You have to remember that if someone told you Parra would finish last or second last this season you would not believe them. The injuries we have sustained this year has cost us multiple wins, and with a full strength team for most of the year we easily make the 8. The biggest difference we can make is to keep our players fit, as well as improved structures especially in defence. If this happens, we are almost certain to be knocking on the door of the 8 at the very least.
When we had close to our best 17 on the field with Moses playing, we pretty much always won. We beat Canterbury, Manly and the Sharks when we had Moses and close to our best 17.
What about the games we lost with Moses ?
Well Moses played how many games? And I said Moses and close to our best 17. There were a couple of games Moses played but we had heaps of other players out
"we pretty much always won" 😝 I want what he's having
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