For the last four days the number of new (reported) COVID cases have declined from a peak of 400/day down to 186/day and decreasing (for now anyway). And for every 100 tests only one positive case is identified.
So we are agressively testing and there are only 3000 known cases in Australia. As should be expected 3000 or even 6000 is no where near critical mass when no one is going to work, school or public transport.
People are stuck at home going broke.
But if the draconian restrictions are completely lifted or the decreased risks causes fear to turn to carelessness then it will take off.
So what now, do the restrictions stay in place with minimal new cases while we go broke? Do they try and partially lift them to maintain a steady flow of cases and immunity for survivors - this could be difficult to manage and still send most broke. If they are fully lifted they may as well not had them in the first place.
Can Australia be compartmentalised to let some populations get run through while others get no infections - thus keeping the total burden manageable? This would seem like the best scenario if achievable.
Or can we get volunteers to get it and go into self isolation until they are over it and immune. The benefit is that they know they have ICU beds available if required and will be immune if they get through. This will build up the herd immunity. Deliberate infection is the easiest way to control the spread so that the number of positive cases do not overwhelm our health system. This would also get us back to normalty fastest. Otherwise we will face recurring/partial/ful restrictions that will send many broke. 40% of businesses are predicted to go under.
Maybe they could start with NRL players. Throw them a COVID party (no phones/cameras allowed) and get them all infected while they are not training and immunosupressed. Then when they have recovered we can restart the season
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Problem is that COVID may be contained but will not be eradicated. So if there is a relaxation then it is likely to take off again.
It is a health risk for players who are being pushed to the limits. Extreme physical activity suppresses the immune system and they will be at substantial risk of severe infection.
The other problem with having COVID under control is that there will keep being a small number of cases for a long time with the entire population at risk until vaccines come out.
Maybe the only way to restart the season is to let it run through the NRL and get it over with
Wile, not a completely crazy idea. Crazy times sometimes call for extreme measures?!
I was reading that epidemiologists are debating whether this Coronavirus will become a seasonal endemic. If so, this should lead all the rational people to continually get vaccinated against it. I guess the issue will be whether SARS-CoV-2 varies seasonally like Influenza A and B do? We better hope not as it's 10 times more deadly.
Dr Wong, don't worry about footballers, imagine asking any human to do that....
just reopen the schools for a week and that should sort ou the bulldogs...
Ouch! LOL
Correct, Meelk, but Wong was only talking about Storm players? Don't they deserve all the misfortune that might come their way?
I heard the Storm players all got the virus, but then they were stripped of it because they cheated on their tests, but then Todd Greenburg quiently acknowledged they all had the virus by sending their wives diamond rings.
I wouldn't throw a party just yet or state that it's in decline. Not yet at least.
There's a view that we are under testing currently and when the new antibodies test comes in next week or so we'll see another spike in cases.
Hospitals are still gearing up for impending new severe cases which will occupy ICU beds.
I work in the medical space and have my entire career. If Doctors are still worried I'd suggest we should be also. Stay the course for now.
Mutt man voice of reason!!!
Read we only got 100k kits and drs pleading for more HKF. Only testing for those with symptoms is my understanding ... which of course sadly isn't enough.
the new pin prick kits arriving should go to all medics and front liners so at least they can tell if they are immune from having had it. It's imperative we protect theses brave souls for what's coming.
Who says doctors are pleading for more. We are currently over testing. One positive out of 100 tests is not undertesting.
I think Muttman is refering to the false negative rate of PCR testing on throat/nose swabs - please see below
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