Many wards in NSW hospitals are empty awaiting the coronavirus explosion. Staff are being stood down. Expect more severe restrictions over Easter when they can be more easily tolerated because people will have planned to be off work and school. Presumably this is to try and wipe out the remaining virus in Oz but unlikely to completely eradicate it. We will continue to have severe restrictions sending many broke and reducing our ability to cope with future emergencies for few cases in Australia. Case numbers are charted below and as I predicted on March 22, we did not have enough cases in OZ to maintain exponential growth (with the restrictions) for more than another week. Note that the last day on the chart is a partial day so that day will probably get up to 200-250; the partial day caught me out last post and I went off a bit prematurely. If we do stop the restrictions though then it will go exponential. So government between a rock and a hard place. After an Easter crackdown, IMO, I would like to ssee an easing of restrictions to let the economy get going so we can afford to pay for emergencies. Just keep the borders closed and the place compartmentalised up to limit any outbreak. NRL should compartmentalise too - seperate into three or four subcomps that do not require plane travel, and test regularly.
Replies
I can't see restrictions being eased until May. We really need to get our hands around who is actually infected and who isn't first. Otherwise it will just explode again.
The apparent flattening of the curve is going better than anyone could have hoped for. People are doing their part
I agree will not be eased until May or June. Any virus remaining will go exponential if restrictions are lifted - esecially in Winter. The question is can we eradicate it iby a war of attrition in the next few months or do we have to go bankrupt waiting for the vaccine.
Same thing has happened as we would expect from the flu. This thing cannot go exponential for more than 2-3 population doublings with these restrictions and with so few cases that they can be well managed.
For example , do you expect to catch the flu staying home and not going to work or public transport etc. Same for coronavirus. It will spread through what it can for a few population doublings then hit a dead end. That is the reason for the restrictions.
A vaccine is the only true end. Either that or a harsher lockdown like NZ. There is no version outside of those two options. The NSW police commissioner yesterday announced that the current lockdown will be in place for at least 90 days. So restrictions aren't being eased until at least July now.
Vaccine is precicted to be 18 months away. If that is true there will be a bankruptcy epidemic. There are always other options. Compartmentalising is one - shut down borders and movement between cities. Large cities would be difficult to sector off but not impossible. Then let the economy largely restart with strategic testing. If we go bankrupt who will pay for the hospitals and health care. Governments don't pay - out taxes pay and there is nothing to tax if we are not working.
Strategic testing doesn't work because of the high infection rate. We tried strategic testing at the start remember? Large scale testing is a proven model of tracking infecton rate.
If we look around the world, we know what works.
1. Fast, aggressive lockdown: This is the most effective way to stop the virus. A lockdown of 4-6 weeks where movement is restricted means the virus can't spread. This lockdown includes schools, while providing services to essential workers. It's the fastest way to get the virus under control.
2. Widespread testing and isolation: This is what was used in Singapore. They tested anyone and everyone, monitored temperatures and isolated anyone who presented a single symptom. This allowed them to continue with schools open.
Nothing wrong with testing the whole population - are you going to pay the $5bn it wil cost and as soon as you have done it the negatives may become positive and you will have to test again in a few weeks. Someone has to pay. Some things are just not practical. Singapore is a small island with a smaller population.
Coronavirus does not spread like influenza. Influenza spreads from kids to adults and schools are hot houses. Not the same for corona. Kids do not spread it much and kids mainly get it from adults. So schools not as important to shut down.
What do you do after 6 weeks of lockdown. Virus is still there and will go epidemic if you stop. You are talking a 18 months lock down until you get your vaccine. 18 months is a long time for an economy to shut down - who will pay for your bilions of dollars worth of tests.
The lockdown is buying time but many experts have predicted that this virus won't be resolved within 6 months. - only a 10% chance. Eventually the curve theory will be thrown out the window. Australia must use this time to ramp up its medical systems or face a a worse situation.
Elective surgery was cancelled to free up private hospitals to uninfected public patients so public hospitals coul deal with coronavirus influx. And many patients are too scared to go to hospital.
Now private hospitals are closing as they have no patients and public hospitals wards are empty. Public and private health care staff are being stood down without pay while old health care workers are being brought back out of retirement to deal with some magical influx of coronavirus patients that is not going to happen. If restrictions are relaxed and we did get an influx those old health care workers would all get severe infections and overburden ICU beds. If you want to bolster the health care system due to coronavirus epidemic you need to use young ones - such as bringing forward final year students. But they are a bunch of pussies and would be too scared to work in hospital if there are any chance of coronavirus patients being around.
Wile, the government yesterday announced it is rolling the private hospitals in with the public system, bringing those medical professionals who were stood down back into the workforce.
They've already brought final year students on board.
Jesus mate are you actually paying attention, or are you about a week behind everything that's already been done?
Super if you get your head out of your fake news purveyors and walk into a privte hospital you will see what I am talking about. The government is planning on rolling private hospitals into the public system as part of its plan to create space for this imaginary influx of coronavirus severe cases. This imaginary influx has not eventuated - as I predicted on March 22nd. This has meant that there is no patients in private hospitals and they are shutting down. They may reopen partially in a few for a few public patients but this will still leave most of their staff stood down and most of their capacity not used. Public hospital capacity has been opened up for this influx and patients sent to private hospitals and now their staff is being stood down with idle capacity. Take a walk into a nearby hospital super or ask a staff member if they have been stood down yet. The list of doctors and nurses out of work is increasing not decreasing.
Super for the last two weeks I have been saying there are not enough cases in Australia to go exponential for more than 10-14 days (three population doublings; with these restrictions). Then it will go linear and then decrease. You have been telling me I am wrong. Well look at the graph - just as I predicted - see my posts on the 22 March.
-
1
-
2
of 2 Next